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UPCOMING BRAZIL ELECTIONS WEBINAR: WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THE FIRST ROUND...

Country Insights

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On Reelections, Rabbits and Ratings
TURKEY - Report 06 Aug 2015
Markets seem focused on three issues/questions at the moment: What is the latest on the coalition vs. reelection odds, given the cacophony of announcements coming out of Ankara? What should we exactly make out of the CBRT Governor Basci’s latest announcement of simplifying the monetar...

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Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 06 Aug 2015
Sources from the judicial sector claim that, in the coming weeks, the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) will accuse the president of the House, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) in the Federal Supreme Court (STF), on the basis of involvement in acts of corruption discovered in the Lava Jato Operation.

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Poverty Rises as Economy Slows
MEXICO - Report 05 Aug 2015
The news isn’t all bad: Consumer confidence has rebounded, the stores are reporting increased sales, and industry continues to hire. But the economy continues to slow, recent indicators show. And on balance, the latest news has been negative. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) showed activity slippi...

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July CPI increased 15.6% y-o-y boosted by regulated services and RUB devaluation
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 04 Aug 2015

Annual inflation increased from 15.3% y-o-y (+0.2% m-o-m) in June to 15.6% y-o-y (+0.8% m-o-m) in July. Food deflation continued with food prices declining 0.3% m-o-m compared to -0.4% m-o-m in June. Ma...


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The arrest of José Dirceu and its consequences
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Aug 2015
The arrest of José Dirceu in the Lava Jato Operation will increase pressure on the PT even further.Especially taking in consideration that the incident occurred at the same time as Renato Duque, former Petrobras director, is negotiating a plea bargain deal. The combination of these two facts m...

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Two Milestones Reached
VENEZUELA - In Brief 03 Aug 2015

Last week Venezuela cashed-in $6.5 billion: $1.5 billion from the sale of accounts receivable from Jamaica and $5.0 billion from China.

The sale of accounts receivable from Jamaica ($3.2 bi...


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Week of August 3
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 03 Aug 2015
Expectations with the return of Congressional activity.President Dilma Rousseff meets with party leaders of the governing coalition this Monday (3) to improve the climate between the Executive and Legislative.She will appear in the PT’s radio and TV program on Thursday.Leaders have until August 6...

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Sharp Deceleration of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Aug 2015
One of the (many) reasons the current recession will be longer than the one in 2008-2009 is the behavior of credit. Growth of the credit stock started to slow in early 2011, and has been stagnant in 2015, with lending by both private and public banks decelerating. The flow of new loans to both bu...

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The Monetary Policy Dilemmas
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Aug 2015
Last week the COPOM ended the tightening cycle with one more hike of 50 basis points, taking the SELIC rate to 14.25%, where according to the communiqué it will remain “for a sufficiently prolonged period.” But how long might that be? On the one hand, the Central Bank wants to bring inflation dow...

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Inflation Eases, But Best Is Likely Over
TURKEY - Report 03 Aug 2015

Consumer price inflation moved little in July (0.1%), m/m, broadly in line with the consensus. This led to another easing in the 12-month rate to 6.8%, from 7.2% in June. Food price inflation stayed broadly unchanged at some 9.3%, y/y, while underlying inflation dynamics finally showed some mo...


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CBR cut key rate by 50 b.p., to 11%, no guidance on next moves
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 31 Jul 2015

CBR’s of Board of Directors decided to cut key rate by 50...


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Desperate For A Coalition
TURKEY - Forecast 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary

With coalition talks proceeding very slowly, the ISIS/PKK threats on the rise and emerging markets under pressure, macro visibility has never been this poor. Our political baseline is reelections now (60% probability), even though the political landscape is unlikely...


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Perpetual Election Mode
VENEZUELA - Report 31 Jul 2015
Executive Summary We’re all focused on the December 6 National Assembly elections, but voters will also choose governors in 2016, mayors in 2017, and a president in 2018. And there just might be a presidential recall referendum after April of next year. This means that the government will rema...

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A Heavy Burden
ARGENTINA - Forecast 31 Jul 2015

Executive Summary

In Argentina nobody discusses the need for a correction in economic policy. The debate is only about the scale and the speed of the required adjustments. The old debate concerning “gradualism versus shock” has returned with the intensity it had in the literature of ...


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Costa Rica: The Central Bank revised its Macroeconomic Program
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 31 Jul 2015

As stated by law, the Central Bank of Costa Rica announced yesterday its revision of the Macroeconomic Program 2015-2016, which was originally published in late January. There are no major changes in the Bank´s policy orientation, but there is a revision in the forecast of the macro-variables ...