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Country Insights

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Monetary policy confusion
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 30 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue:

  • There have been a number of announcements by the PBoC and other Beijing officials referring to changes and innovations in the way China will conduct monetary policy. Most of these have to do with improving the transmission of monetary p...

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Financial Reform Rollbacks
INDIA - Report 30 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

The BJP has rolled back the proposal of applying MAT on foreign investors. Until the fine print is read, we cannot be sure about what the tax authorities have done. And, the increase in the withholding tax from 5% to 18% stands. On financial reform, three issues hav...


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Technical Note on Changes in the External Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 30 Apr 2015
The statistics on the balance of payments published by the Central Bank of Brazil are now reported according to the new Balance of Payments Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM6, replacing BPM5). The Central Bank’s notes with details of the changes can be found at this link (in Portugue...

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All You Need Is Ecuador!
ECUADOR - Report 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

In a plan to develop tourism as a main public revenue source, the government has launched a massive marketing campaign it calls “All you need is Ecuador” – a slogan meant to evoke the Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love.” President Rafael Correa traveled to the United...


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Politics: More Bad News on Security Front
MEXICO - Report 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

Insecurity remains a complicated issue for the administration of President Enrique Peña, which has long cited positive trends in crime rates to refute critics, many of whom have warned since the very first days of the Peña administration that it lacks a clear strat...


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Economics: Internal Market Takes Off
MEXICO - Report 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

The positive dynamic we observed in private consumption over the course of the second half of 2014 extended through the first quarter of 2015. Diverse variables have contributed to the extension of that positive trend. For starters, the economy’s formal sector wage...


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Why is the Ruble So Strong?
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

The rebound of the ruble is one of the most remarkable and unexpected developments of recent months. After falling to local lows at the end of January, the currency has been strengthening for three months, appreciating by almost 38% against the dollar, and nearly 44...


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Fiscal grievances and setbacks in Havana
COLOMBIA - Report 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

Private consumption and investment were the key drivers of economic activity in 2014: household consumption was up a faster 5.1% in Q4, despite spending slowdown driven by the deteriorated oil outlook. The consumption of non-durables (33% of total consumption) expan...


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Government Under Pressure, but Can Still Win
VENEZUELA - Report 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

With most polls showing the opposition more than 30 percentage points ahead of the PSUV, the official party will be hard pressed to win December’s legislative elections. International pressure to free political prisoners and allow observers to monitor the elections ...


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A Lull in the Barrage of Bad News
UKRAINE - Report 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary

Domestic tensions eased significantly in March and April. While economic problems and the military threat are still on the agenda, a dearth of breaking news from the Eastern front, and a strengthening of the hryvnia (to 22 per $1, from 30 in February) relie...


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Successes and Conflicts in Executing the Adjustment: What’s Next?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Apr 2015
Executive Summary Four months have passed since the start of President Rousseff’s second term, and the greatest hope is on Joaquim Levy’s capacity to reverse the unfavorable inherited situation. The fiscal adjustment is under way, and initial hopes were that its execution, along with a weaker ...

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A Semblance of Stability
INDONESIA - Report 27 Apr 2015
Executive Summary A semblance of stability has been felt by the Indonesian business community since the rupiah strengthened a bit against the US dollar, at least narrowing the currency losses seen during the first quarter of the year. However, at the same time, business executives have also fe...

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The Signs Sent by the Latest Data on New Consumer Lending
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Apr 2015
With the economy in recession and unemployment rising, the natural expectation was that banks would be more conservative in extending new loans, with negative reflections on household consumption. However, the figures on new lending for the first quarter this year show expansion in relation to th...

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Week of April 27
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Apr 2015

The House committees analyzing the fiscal austerity provisional measures may vote on the measures. In the Senate, the index for state and municipal debt with the federal government may be voted upon. The Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate.President Dilma Rousseff will consider makin...


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Minimum wage policy in 2015
VENEZUELA - Report 27 Apr 2015

In coming days President Maduro will be announcing the minimum wage increase for May 1, Labor Day. The government’s urgency to regain public support ahead of the elections will lead to stronger and more frequent minimum wage increases this year.

Our base case for 2015 is that Maduro wi...