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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Does monetary policy work?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Nov 2018

Does Chinese monetary policy work? If the central bank changes interest rates, does the market react? Or are interest rates irrelevant and only fiscal policy – direct intervention – effective? These questions are essential to understand the effectiveness of interest rate policy in China. Ultim...

Stress in NBFCs and real estate companies
INDIA · Report · 16 Nov 2018

We review the stages of the slow-moving crisis in Indian finance. At present, NBFCs are facing a stress test. We analyze the small subset of listed NBFCs and identify the firms that have fared the best and worst since the date of the IL&FS default. We also identify the firms with the highest and ...

Kazakh Bank to IPO on LSE
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2018

Kaspi Bank announced on November 9 that it will launch an IPO next year, listing shares on the London Stock Exchange. Kaspi is one of Kazakhstan's most profitable banks. It has made a profit of over USD 200 million so far this year. The announcement came on the same day that Vladimir Putin met Pr...

Policy rates hiked anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Nov 2018

Citing the need to be proactive in managing the many external and domestic risks, the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by 25bp, bringing the overnight RRP rate to 4.75%, a cumulative 175bp increase year to date. Even as it continued to tighten policy, it presented inflation forecasts ...

A new census portrays a very different country
COLOMBIA · Report · 14 Nov 2018

Preliminary 2018 census results delivered many surprises, most posing severe challenges for future economic and social policies. First, there are 45.5 million people living in Colombia, not the 50 million many had been projecting for years. Among major public policy implications: we are richer th...

Q3 GDP was stronger than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Nov 2018

GDP growth in Q3 was reported by the KSH at an unadjusted 4.8% yoy, just slightly down from 4.9% yoy in Q2, and substantially stronger than the 4.3% yoy analyst expectation (which we were in agreement with). This means 4.7% yoy cumulative growth for the first three quarters. On seasonally and day...

Economics: Pemex and the state of the industry
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The recovery in international oil prices bolstered Pemex’s sales and short-term financial situation in the third quarter, but its operating results leave much to be desired. The company’s oil production continues to plummet owing to deep cuts to Pemex’s exploration budget that led the rate of ...

Politics: The challenge of Central American caravans
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The Central American caravans of recent weeks have had much more of a political impact than past efforts by migrants in the region to collectively enter and in many cases cross Mexican territory, especially given the way US President Donald Trump made it his focus ahead of last week’s midterm ele...

Russia opposes oil production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2018

On 12 November President Putin announced that he does not want Russian consumers to be hurt by an oil price rise.On 11 November OPEC met in Abu Dhabi. There was a spirited debate about an oil production cut. The aim would be to raise prices. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both members of OPEC despite ...

Cash, just in time for elections
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The situation in Ukraine has been intense in recent weeks. Residential gas prices have finally been raised by 23.5%, and the IMF immediately announced a staff-level agreement on a new 14-month Standby arrangement—a credit line worth up to $3.9 billion. This positive signal gave the green light fo...

Q3 GDP data tomorrow: moderate slowdown is expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2018

Portfolio.hu's analyst poll expects a moderate slowdown for Q3 GDP, to an unadjusted 4.3% yoy growth rate in real terms, after 4.9% yoy in Q2. We agree with that consensus: preliminary and partial data are indeed hinting at some moderate deceleration for the third quarter. Importantly, the same a...

Strong growth prospects, but politics could hamper business confidence
PERU · Forecast · 12 Nov 2018

Strong recovery in H1 was mainly due to a favorable base effect, after the H1 2017 slowdown caused by the El Niño disasters. Though we expect growth of just 2.5% in Q3, growth should speed up in Q4, taking into account the start of the fishing season, and strong public investment. Under these con...

Positive effects of the lower risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Might the Brazilian economy’s cyclical recovery accelerate at the start of the next administration? The current government has left a positive legacy of a low basic interest rate with inflation fluctuating around the target. With a still-wide negative GDP gap (unemployment rate of 12% and low uti...

Bolsonaro in Brasília again and to present elected governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018 · 1 response

This will be an intense week in the Lower House and Senate, despite the Thursday (November 15) holiday. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will travel to Brasília again, where he will meet with Minister Rosa Weber (TSE). Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes present elected governors with the new governme...

The bond market is starting to price in a possible dent in fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Highlights: Wage growth is running at an annual pace of about 3.5% y/y. * Wage growth is impacted by a tight labor market and minimum wage hikes. Trend data point to recent moderation in wages. * This is fairly rapid and will have some impact on inflation. Business sector expectations f...

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