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Belarus-Russia talks fail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

On December 8 the presidents of Russia and Belarus met in Sochi. After a few hours of talks no agreement was reached. This bodes ill for Putin's stated plan to achieve full reunification in 2020. Belarus wants to pay the same price for oil and gas as people in Russia pay. Russia does not agree.Af...

The Recovery is Slowly Consolidating
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 10 Dec 2019

No knowledgeable observer has the illusion that monetary policy alone is a suitable instrument to guarantee sustained growth. However, in the absence of an external impulse and considering the tradeoff inherent to fiscal consolidation, that long-run growth comes at the price of contraction in the...

​A farewell-to-year piece by the Cosmic Strategist
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2019

The final Monthly of 2019 by the GSP Turkey team will be in your inboxes by Friday, Deities permitting.As a eye-opening case of the Common Persons’ discrimination against contrarian intellectuals, GSP Turkey Monthly and Quarterly Reports do not include the views of the renowned Cosmic Strategist....

GDP growth strengthens Guedes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The Lower House may vote on the new framework for basic sanitation and the bill on the use of ICMS credit by companies. The Senate CCJ analyzes the bill on arrests following a higher court conviction. The STF discusses independent candidacies on Monday, December 9, and the decree on Petrobras’ di...

Sharp inflation decline in November, stronger rate cut looming
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Dec 2019

November CPI sharply slowed down to +0.1% m/m (+5.1% y/y) from + 0.7% m/m (+6.5% y/y) in the prior month. The result beat any expectations. Food prices’ deflation (-0.2% m/m) coupled with sliding prices for clothing and footwear (-1.4% m/m) amid strengthening hryvnia is behind the result. By Nove...

Politics: Latent risk of Chilean-style protests?
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2019

In light of the mass violence experienced in recent weeks and months in a number of South American countries including Chile, Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia, we must ask the question whether Mexico might be ripe for such outbreaks. While an initial response to seemingly minor policy moves were the...

Economics: A curious Private Infrastructure Accord
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2019

Leading private sector representatives committed themselves to invest roughly 43 billion dollars in 147 projects under a National Private Sector Infrastructure Investment Agreement plan the government announced on November 26. Many sources appeared to confuse it with the government’s six-year Nat...

Third Quarter GDP and Growth Forecast Update
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The GDP numbers for the third quarter clearly showed that the economic recovery is slowly gaining traction and that the bases for continued growth are more solid. On the demand side, the highlights continue to be the contributions from household consumption and investments, and the outlook is for...

The BoI purchases 1.3bn USD in November; rate cut less likely
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Dec 2019

The Bank of Israel purchased 1.3bn USD in November, signaling that FX intervention is currently the preferred monetary tool, and not lower rates. The fiscal deficit has stabilized at around 3.7% of GDP (LTM) since Q219 on some tighter spending and steady tax revenues. The Business Confidence Surv...

​The cabinet of Alberto Fernández
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019 · 1 response

In line with the electoral campaign, in which Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) kept a relatively low profile, the recently announced cabinet, that will be sworn in on Tuesday, December 10, reflects to a large extent the signature of Alberto Fernandez (AF), more than that of the elected vice-p...

Germany expels Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

On December 4 Germany expelled two Russian diplomats. Germany suspects the diplomats assisted in the assassination of a Georgian citizen, Zemilkhan Khangoshvili, in Germany. A Russian has been charged with Khangoshvili's murder. Khangoshvili had been labeled a terrorist by Russia. Under Russian l...

Russian military said to be active in Libya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

On December 6 the US announced that a US drone shot down in Libya recently was destroyed by the Russian Army. This will raise tension between the United States and Russia. The US wants the wreckage back but the Russian government denies all involvement and says it has no idea where the wreckage i...

​Gulf weekly: OPEC cuts, Aramco IPOs, Qatar hosts rivals and Qaboos has cancer tests
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco raised $25.6bn in its IPO, but foreign investors (mainly Gulf SWF) only provided $2bn. * Qatar’s Emir was invited to the Gulf Summit in Ri...

Monthly inflation preview: the headline rate is set to rise markedly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

The November CPI-infation data is expected on Tuesday, December 10. In essence, the yoy headline rate is set to rise significantly on a fuel-price-related base effect, but no policy reaction whatsoever is likely to come from the MNB.More specifically, we expect the yoy headline rate to jump to 3....

Magic in the air: the IMF reports on staff-level agreement with Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Dec 2019

An unexpectedly excellent piece of news came yesterday from Ms. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF. The decision was apparently made after a telephone call with President Zelenskiy. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, most likely, told the Managing Director something what the IMF mission did...

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