GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

SA political economy scene has been hot, noisy, and increasingly bewildered over the past few weeks. There has not been much developments of any substance. I have been monitoring the situation carefully. There has been a great deal of political grand standing, tactical moves, threatening noise an...

Pdvsa's Glitch

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Pdvsa missed paying in time interest on the PDVSA 9% 2021s, PDVSA 6% 2024s and PDVSA 9.75% 2035s as reported by Citibank, the paying agent, and Clearstream. We understand payments were still pending as of eob yesterday, Monday 21, 2016. PDVSA has only paid $135 million on the PDVSA’s 6.0% 2026s. ...

Efforts and Frustrations

PERU · Report · 21 Nov 2016

Toward the end of his first hundred days in office, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity has declined significantly. This is partly due to natural impatience over the government’s seeming slowness in addressing top public concerns, such as the economy and security. But two other reasons a...

Week of November 21

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2016

This week, governors meet with representatives of the government’s economic team to discuss financial aid to the states. In the Senate, an extensive voting agenda: repatriation, political reform, ISS reform and outsourcing. The Finance Ministry will release the new GDP projection for 2017, lower ...

External Shock and Increased Risks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2016

The depth of the recession and clear signs of waning inflation until recently indicated a growing probability that the Central Bank could increase the pace of lowering the interest rate. But with the election of Donald Trump, capital that was going to emerging countries has shifted back to the Un...

Political and Economic Update

TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2016

AKP and MHP will begin negotiating in earnest on the details of the constitutional reform bill this week. We expect a compromise and a referendum in April-May. If MHP backtracks AKP could resort to early elections. Tensions with the EU are rising by the day. European Parliament could pass a mo...

GDP outlook worsens 10 days after demonetisation

INDIA · In Brief · 19 Nov 2016

It has now been more than ten days after the Prime Minister of India announced that the Rs 500 and the Rs 1000 notes will no longer be legal tender. The shock to the economy has not eased as hoped. Instead, the impact is spreading across the economy. At present various sectors are seeing an actua...

Taxes Down, Wages Up Sharply

HUNGARY · Report · 18 Nov 2016

Given improved financial fundamentals, Hungary is well positioned for market volatility from the unpredictability of the upcoming US administration. Furthermore, PM Orbán was one of the few government heads expressing support for Donald Trump before the vote, potentially earning some goodwill for...

Economics: Pemex Plan: Lingering Doubts

MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2016

Last week, after a wait of several months, Petróleos Mexicanos announced its 2016-2021 Business Plan. CEO José Antonio González Anaya had been mentioning this plan since August, saying that it would define Pemex’s strategy and actions for the next five years, to overhaul the financial situation ...

Politics: Bracing for a Trump Administration

MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2016

The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States has major implications for Mexico. The country was a central theme of the Republican campaign, and a good number of the president-elect’s campaign promises are directly related to Mexico. Some of them, such as repeal of t...

3Q16 GDP Accelerates

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2016

Bucking expectations, the local economy grew 7.1% in 3Q16, faster than the previous two quarters. The surprising performance was due to: (a) continuing strong household consumption, particularly on food and transport items; (b) sustained robust growth in fixed capital, with private construction b...

Facing Challenges

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2016

Despite important political victories, such as approval in the Chamber of Deputies of the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) to cap real spending growth, in the next fiscal policy moves the government will face substantial difficulties. The first is the worse outlook for growth in 2017, whic...

Abandoning the Ostracism?

ECUADOR · Report · 16 Nov 2016

On November 11, Juan Carlos Cassinelli, Minister of Trade finally signed the accession of Ecuador to the free trade agreement with the European Union. Falling oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar forced Correa to put aside his bias against trade agreements in order to avoid some $0.5b i...

Economy Still Slogging through Winter

CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2016

Donald Trump's presidential victory will make an impact around the world, including in Chile. Some effects are already being felt: copper prices rose, evidently on expectations of a U.S. construction boom. Other effects are subtler. Trump's influence may extend to politics, as Chile historically ...

U.S. Elections and Venezuela

VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

Trade between Venezuela and the U.S. has evolved normally despite diplomatic ups and downs. U.S. companies operating in Venezuela haven’t faced problems. This is unlikely to change with President Trump. Both governments have also held relatively fluid conversations throughout the Venezuelan polit...