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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s local bailout funds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Feb 2020

China is gradually improving the economy’s ability to handle defaults. Beijing is designing various mechanisms for allowing failure of both companies and securities. In a previous note, we discussed the growth of local asset management companies. Here, we look at another program – local governmen...

​Idlib: Erdogan reads the riot act
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2020

President Erdogan’s speech in parliamentary caucus today has ramifications beyond Turkey’s Idlib policy. It is obviously affecting the exchange rate, which slipped another notch vs the dollar, as I wrote these lines, and it may be the last warning to Putin. "If any harm comes to our soldiers in o...

Russia's internet facing obstacles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2020

A report leaked on February 10 stated that when Russia trialed the sovereign internet in fall 2019 it experienced serious problems. The test revealed that a sovereign internet meant slower access and poor quality. The internet became inaccessible for several minutes in some places. The aim of the...

Russia plans to hold referendum on constitution
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2020

On February 11 one of Russia's main newspapers (Vedomosti) reported that the government's proposed referendum on constitutional amendments will have a goal of 70% turnout and 70% voting in favor. The government had the same goal for the 2018 presidential elections and achieved it. Opinion polls s...

​Failed peso-debt placement opens the question about whether to re-profile or monetize the AF20 bond
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2020

As a new setback for the government's financing strategy, the Ministry of Economy reported late yesterday that the tender to reopen three peso bonds, to pay the upcoming amortization of the AF20 bond, has been declared void. This failure happened even though the three offered instruments covered ...

Zelenskiy dismissed Chief of Staff Andriy Bohdan
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Feb 2020

President Zelenskiy dismissed Andriy Bohdan, Chief of Staff of the President Office, according to the President Office web-site. Andriy Yermak, president’s advisor, is the new Head of the President Office. Rumors about the potential dismissal of Bohdan had been circulating already for few days. B...

Ruling party wins Azerbaijani election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2020

The president's party has won the election to the Majilis (parliament). The New Azerbaijan Party won 65 of the 125 seat. Of the remaining deputies all bar one are members of pro-government parties. The result was never in doubt. Opponents of President Aliyev slammed the election as a charade. The...

Economics: The public financial squeeze ahead
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Based on the report on public finance and debt results for the fourth quarter and for full-year 2019, as well as the way the current year is shaping up, the near term points to the likelihood of a further deterioration of public finance even as the government touts its select accomplishments to d...

No new FX swaps sold at today's tender, once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2020

The stock of the MNB's FX swaps sold to domestic banks is set to fall by HUF 64bn to HUF 1991bn on Wednesday, as the Bank decided to reject all bids at today's tender, the same way as it did a week earlier. At the latest date for which data is available, i.e. on February 9, total HUF liquidity wa...

Taxation of profits and dividends on the agenda once again and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

Congress meets on February 11 to analyze presidential vetoes that reinforce the Compulsory Budget, giving legislators control of the execution of R$ 42.6 billion in amendments. The Joint Committee on Tax Reform will be created this week. The Senate holds a confirmation hearing for Nestor Forster,...

The Decline of the Long-Term Real Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

In this report, we examine the effects of the decline of the long-term real interest rate, which besides a transitory component caused by the decrease of the SELIC rate, has a highly persistent component, the decline of the neutral real interest rate. The consequences of the falling long-term rea...

Politics: Congressional priorities this session
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2020

With all major political actors likely to start filtering all their calculations through the prism of next year’s midterm elections beginning this fall, the governing camp has a pressing need to get as many bills and constitutional reforms passed during the current session of Congress in order to...

Ethnic fighting kills 10 in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2020

On February 9 fighting between indigenous Kazakhs and ethnic minority Dungan people led to 10 deaths and scores of injuries. The incident took place in a small town near the border with Kyrgyzstan. The Dungans migrated from China over a century ago. Ethnic Kazakhs comprise only 60% of the citizen...

End of the Easing Cycle with the SELIC Rate at 4.25%
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Feb 2020

With the economy still “depressed” and inflation below the target, why did the Central Bank decide to interrupt the cycle of lowering the SELIC rate? Before addressing this issue, we point out that in previous communiqués and minutes of COPOM meetings, the Bank insisted that the power of monetary...

Huge surplus in January due to weak spending and strong revenues
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Feb 2020

The fiscal deficit declined to 3.2% GDP in the LTM due to the lack of an approved budget and one-off revenues. Both business sector and consumer confidence remain elevated, suggesting steady growth into Q120. Despite BoI FX intervention of 2.9bn in January, the shekel appreciated by 1.3% against ...

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