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UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Economics: Mexico enters the tariff fray with duties
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jun 2018

Not long after the European Union and Canada detailed the import taxes they were imposing on US goods in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs the Trump administration had activated, Mexico followed suit with its own list of US products on which it would impose retaliatory import duties. Lab...

What we can learn from the Datafolha poll and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Central Bank announced an offer of US$ 20 billion by the end of the week to contain the rise of the dollar. The truckers’ demands are still on the agenda. The National Oil and Gas Agency begins a public hearing today, June 11, to collect proposals from the market for regulation that defines t...

Politics: AMLO significantly extends his lead
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The most recent GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters, which was conducted in late May following the second presidential candidates’ debate, shows that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has significantly expanded his lead over the rest of the field, as the slight bounce Ricardo Anaya enjoyed after...

The political and economic consequences of Martinelli’s extradition
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2018

On June 8, the Department of State accepted the request of the Panamanian Government to extradite former president Ricardo Martinelli (RM) to Panama, after being held for a year in a Federal detention center in Miami. He will be returning to Panama today. In principle, this outcome is a victory f...

Some shekel weakness likely in upcoming summer months
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jun 2018

Wage growth accelerated significantly in Q118 and is supportive of some inflationary pressure. The fiscal deficit remained subdued through May but is likely to reach the 2.9% of GDP target by year-end. Zoom in: We expect some shekel weakness in the coming months, which is likely to boost infl...

Consumer (and construction) drives Q1 growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Turkish economy grew at a somewhat higher than expected 7.4% rate, y/y, in Q1 (2%, q/q), which was primarily driven by a surge in private consumption. The latter expanded at a whopping 11% rate (4.2%, q/q), driven by non-durable consumption and services (Table 1; Graphs 1-3). More broadly,...

Hyperinflation at full speed
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

We revised up our inflation estimate for May 2018 to 107 percent, from 102 percent in our previous report. Accumulated inflation for January-May 2018 rises to 2,186 percent and the year-on-year rate for May goes up to 29,360 percent. We forecast a slight slowdown in the June monthly rate to 1...

Last week’s storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

What was the cause of the storm that beset the Brazilian market last week? There was no single cause, but rather a series of causes. One was the abrupt, but not unexpected, end of an external bonanza period, characterized by low international interest rates and an abundance of foreign capital flo...

Datafolha Poll: The race is still open
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Datafolha poll released Sunday reinforces the scenario of the unpredictability of Brazil’s presidential election. In scenarios without the presence of former President Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads. However, Bolsonaro has had trouble winning over voters beyond his right-wing loyalists.

MNB says not at all interested in forint weakening
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2018

Following a similar statement by Finance Minister Varga, MNB vice governor and Monetary Council member Ferenc Gerhardt told InfoRádió on Friday that the forint's recent weakening vis-a-vis the euro is no matter of interest for the MNB. As the MNB has no exchange rate target, it will not tell how ...

​Odebrecht case update: a bigger than expected deceive
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Jun 2018

A year and a half after investigations into the million-dollar bribes of Odebrecht in the Dominican Republic was launched, the Attorney General's Office filed formal accusations. Few expected an impartial and fair investigation because the Attorney General is a political subordinate of President ...

The new old
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2018

Immediately after the inauguration, President Putin signed a decree establishing national development goals for his six-year Presidential term. Although the previous decree signed in 2012 was not fully fulfilled, it became an important performance management instrument for the government. With am...

Running scared, recession underway
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2018

A number of recent polls add weight to our call of President Erdogan winning the race in the second round, as we declare CHP candidate Mr. Ince his potential rival. Assuming pro-Kurdish HDP passes the qualifying hurdle, opposition parties should gain control of the Grand Assembly. A spate of rash...

XP/IPESPE Poll: Bolsonaro leads, Ciro gains, and Lula lifts Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2018

​The new telephone poll conducted by XP/IPESPE (June 4-6) shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), despite having lost some ground compared to the May poll, is still in the lead in the presidential race in scenarios in which former President Lula (PT) is not a candidate. Bolsonaro’s performance (from 21%...

Finance minister Varga appeared quite relaxed about the weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2018

Mr. Mihály Varga, who once again bears the title of finance minister (pretty much a different name for the economy minister only) spoke in a rather relaxed mood about the weak forint today, despite the May jump in CPI-inflation (to 2.8% yoy from 2.3% in April), which obviously had a lot to do wit...