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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The EU penalty: negative corrections appeared on the BOP and fiscal accounts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

We wish a happy new year to all of our readers!A EUR1423 million (cca. HUF460 billion) negative correction appeared on net transfers from the EU between the preliminary and the final versions of the Q3 2019 BOP, cutting the January-September net inflow number from 3.2% of GDP to just 1.8% of GDP....

Gas transit contract signed: no transit rate increase
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 30 Naftogaz and Gazprom signed a 5-year gas transit contract. A 65 bcm of natural gas will go through Ukrainian pipeline in 2020 and 40 bcm per year through 2021-2024. According to President Zelenskiy Facebook page Ukraine will receive $7 billion for pumping the agreed volume of natur...

Russia and Ukraine sign energy deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 31 Ukraine and Russia agreed a 5 year contract for gas transit via Ukraine. Gazprom is the Russian state gas company that signed the deal. This is a gain for both countries and another sign for optimism regarding the conflict. The deal was clinched at the 11th hour. Russia was keen to...

Russia will not send oil to Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jan 2020

On December 21 several oil sources confirmed that Russian oil companies will not dispatch oil to Belarus because a deal has not been agreed. Oil transit via Belarus was important for both countries. Russia has tried to negotiate reunification with Belarus. This was agreed in principle 20 years ag...

Eurasian Economic Union: FTAs to revitalize a stagnated project?
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2019

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) is the latest and most comprehensive of decades-long attempts to use economic interdependence in the Eurasian continent, to keep former Soviet Republics under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Today, the EEU is a limited Customs Union with a Common Exter...

Ending the year with optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Dec 2019

In his speech during the Annual Bankers' Dinner recently hosted by Bank Indonesia, President Jokowi appeared confident that the Indonesian economy will remain resilient in the face of the slowdown of the global economy. At the same time, he emphasized the need to look for new resources to keep th...

Economy in 2019, in pictures
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Executive Summary: • The recession of 2018 was short and shallow, thanks to looser global monetary policies, Trump’s leniency toward Turkey that kept political risks in check, and huge amount of domestic stimulus... • Growth should now finish the year in moderately positive territory, in cont...

Growth slowly recovers
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Dec 2019

Preliminary figures indicate that economic activity has continued to slowly recover. The monthly indicator of economic activity for September and October estimated real GDP growth at 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively (to August, the monthly average was 4.7%). We expect that November and December figure...

Strong service exports are shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

Service exports expanded sharply in October by 4.4% m/m (15.3% y/y). Service exports are mostly hi-tech services (software, IT, cyber, etc.).This sector is less sensitive to the global manufacturing slowdown.Service exports are expected to expand by nearly 10% this year.Import prices of consumer ...

Ukraine and Russia exchange prisoners
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Dec 2019

On December 29 Ukraine and Russia announced that all prisoners of war are being exchanged. Ukraine is releasing 87 men and getting back 55. Among those set free are the Ukrainian sailors captured in November 2018. This exchange is the best indication yet that both countries are sincere in their d...

Russian population falling fast
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Dec 2019

On December 28 Rosstat (the Russian Statistics Agency) released forecasts for the next 15 years. There are three alternative demographic projections but all of them show Russia's natural population falling. It just depends how much. In 2019 the Russian population fell for the first time in 10 yea...

How different could 2020 be?
PERU · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The electoral campaign to replace the dissolved Congress seems to have failed to gain momentum. The latest polls find that nearly half of voters haven’t decided who to vote for in the January 26th contest. While some surprises could emerge, the results will most probably favor President Martín Vi...

Ukrainian gas company received disputed payment from Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2019

On December 27 Nafotogaz stated it was paid USD 2.9 billion by Gazprom. This is pursuant to the decision of an arbitration court in Stockholm. Naftogaz agreed to drop a claim for USD 12 billion against Gazprom in return for accepting the other payment. The two companies have signed an agreement t...

$2.9 billion from Gazprom reach Naftogaz account
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2019

Gazprom has paid $2.9 billion on the Stockholm arbitration, according to Naftogaz Facebook page. The funds might be reflected as part of gross international reserves which now should touch $26 billion level or 4.1 months of imports. According to the IMF guides “external assets that are readily av...

​Gulf weekly: Khashoggi trial concludes, Divided Zone oil restart is agreed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. As of today, we are shifting to a Friday publication schedule in an effort to provide swifter coverage than our previous Sunday schedule. Headlines include: * The tria...

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