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Week of June 22
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Jun 2015

This promises to be one of the most politically intense weeks. The testimonies of 12 individuals arrested in the 14th Phase of the Lava Jato investigation will begin. Another item on the government’s positive agenda will be launched on Wednesday, June 24 – the National Export Plan. The Federal...


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Qualitative Indicators of the Contraction of Investments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Jun 2015
The current recession differs from that in 2008-2009: it will be less severe but will last a good deal longer. The dip in the IBC-Br for April is an additional indicator that the contraction of GDP in the second quarter of 2015 will be more intense than in the first three months (Graph 1). There ...

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Weekly Tracker: June 21-27
TURKEY - Report 21 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

While the Turkish press is full of reports that an AKP-MHP coalition is imminent, statements by MHP leader Bahceli cause us to exercise much caution. An AKP-CHP coalition is also not too feasible, judging by the statements made by party spokespersons. Early election...


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​Ukraine to keep paying on debts, Jaresko said
UKRAINE - In Brief 19 Jun 2015

On June 22nd Ukraine will pay $73.3 million of interest to Russia on $3 billion Eurobonds, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said today during briefing. In fact, this payment was the main intrigue after the IMF agreed to finance Ukraine disregard pot...


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Stock Market Boom Amid a Down Economy
CHINA - Report 19 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

We believe the growth slowdown has already bottomed out, and think growth will slowly rebound from here. Fixed asset investment rose 10% y/y in May, up 0.6 pps from April, while value added for major industrial firms rose 6.1% y/y, up 0.5 pps from its lowest level i...


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Will Mr. Roxas run?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 18 Jun 2015

In past weeks, a number of aspiring Presidential candidates have visibly stepped up their game in apparent efforts to influence survey numbers. Today, one of the leading pollsters, Pulse Asia, released...


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Economics: Snapshot by State
MEXICO - Report 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

The economies of each of Mexico’s 32 states developed in 2014 in a context of moderate GDP growth nationally, as the country’s GDP expanded by a mere 2.1%, which at least marked an improvement over its 2013 performance. The main drivers of the national economy last...


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Politics: Congressional Election Results
MEXICO - Report 17 Jun 2015

Executive Summary

Although the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) experienced a net loss of votes compared to past elections and obtained only 29.2% of the vote, that proved to be enough to win 176, or slightly more than 60% of the 300 single member, relative majority...


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Bahceli shuts the door to AKP and CHP
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Jun 2015

In Turkey’s political pundit community I am be alone in relying almost exclusively on public statements by party authorities, while others prefer divining ulterior motives and listening to Ankara rumors. According to my unique method, early elections...


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Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Jun 2015

TCU will postpone trial of government accounts

The TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) will wait one month for President Dilma Rousseff to provide clarification in writing on the accounting maneuvers used to balance her government accounts in 2014. Only after this formality is completed ...


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Confidence under Strain
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 17 Jun 2015

Despite some outbursts of optimism, confidence among businesses and consumers in the South African economy remains by and large depressed. On a combined basis, this has largely been the case since 2012. Under this regime, growth prospects for South Africa are uninspiring. The prevailing state ...


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CBR cut key rate by 100 b.p. as expected; 1Q15 GDP revised down to -2.2% y-o-y
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 15 Jun 2015

CBR’s Board of Directors decided today to cut key rate by 100 b.p., from 12.5% to 11.5%. The move was lar...


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​More questions about Turkey’s politics
TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jun 2015

Once again I want to use the opportunity of astute questions asked by a reader to share my views with the entire readership. As usual the name of the inquirer shall remain anonymous.

· Can the president block formation of a...


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Week of June 15
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Jun 2015

Another important week for the fiscal austerity effort. President Dilma sanctions MPs 664 and 665, which make changes to labor rights. There may be questioning in the STF. In the House, the government tries for a vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions. The TCU analyzes governm...


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Constitutional amendment definitively approved. Re-election allowed.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 15 Jun 2015

In a second and definitive vote, last Friday the National Assembly approved to amend the Constitution. The amendment allows an incumbent President to be nominated for a second term and forbids him/her to run for President again ever. In a formal ceremony that took place on Saturday, the Ass...