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In a lukewarm debate, Alckmin focuses on proposals
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Aug 2018

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) was the candidate who stood out in the first presidential debate, aired by TV Bandeirantes. The PSDB candidate avoided personal attacks and focused on his proposals. However, at times he failed to connect with the audience because of his use of complicated terminology such ...

CHILE: Cabinet Shuffle
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Although he only shuffled three cabinet posts on Thursday, Chilean President Sebastián Piñera sent a broader message; he is admitting that the honeymoon is over.The two ministers to go were Education Minister Gerardo Varela and Culture Minister Alejandra Perez. Environment Minister Marcela Cubill...

Political parties law: Medina gets half of a victory
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018

Tuesday night, the Chamber of Representatives voted positively for a law of parties that allows parties to choose the procedure to elect nominees for President and Vicepresident, members of Congress and local authorities. The bill was supported by danilistas and allied parties, and PRM representa...

GDP growth slides; policy rates raised
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2018 · 1 response

After adjusting down its 1Q18 economic growth estimate from 6.8% to 6.6%, government announced today that 2Q18 GDP growth slipped to 6%, far below the median 6.8% analysts’ forecast. While the headline figure is disappointing, what is striking about the 2Q18 performance is the strength of domesti...

Alckmin and Doria’s challenges in São Paulo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2018

The CNT/MDA poll conducted in São Paulo released today, August 8, shows that the PSDB is facing challenges in both the presidential and gubernatorial elections. Despite his gains in the state, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), in a scenario in which Lula is not a candidate, is still technically tied wi...

Hyperinflation doesn’t give in to isolated measures
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Aug 2018

​As we predicted, the monthly inflation rate in July 2018 slowed to 117 percent from 127 percent in June. (Our July forecast was 116 percent.) Accumulated inflation in this year to 31 July is 11,186 percent and the July year-on-year rate is 93,927 percent. The July slowdown reflected relative st...

IMF deal grows closer, but gas rates are a sticking point
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Aug 2018

The depreciation of the hryvnia and continued backing and forthing over the next rise in consumer gas rates have been the two main topics this mid-summer. Economic data remains predominantly positive, with payroll tax collections the only exception: these have noticeably underperformed, and the P...

July inflation data marks significant negative change
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2018

CPI-inflation was reported at 0.3% mom, 3.4% yoy for July, the yoy rate up from 3.1% in June. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expected 3.3%, and the MNB predicted 3.3% for average CPI-inflation in Q3 in its June inflation report.Note: Yoy changes in percent; Sources: KSH, own estimatesThe big dea...

Armageddon or Salvation
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The basic scenario we have outlined in our recent Quarterly, i.e. Silver Linings Playbook, is playing out much faster with the crunch-time having arrived a lot sooner than we had imagined. Punished mercilessly by markets, Ankara has 24 hours to make a life-or-death decision. President Erdogan is ...

H1 marked by very strong growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Aug 2018

Preliminary data from the Central Bank indicates that in H1 2018 economic activity expanded by 6.7% year over year. In Q1, GDP growth measured by the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE) was 5.4%, and in Q2 it was 7.1%, an extraordinary and surprising expansion. More modest growth had be...

Tariff wars are likely to be disinflationary
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Aug 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to what many seem to believe, tariffs, even if they are much more widely implemented in the US, China, and elsewhere, are not likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures. On the contrary, they are more likely to be disinflationary because t...

Inflation rises to 5.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018

July inflation rate reached 5.7%, near the upper end of the forecast ranges of the BSP (5.1-5.8%) and private analysts (5.4-5.8%); rising as well from the surprisingly high 5.2% print in June. The higher headline rate may be traced largely to higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and ...

Industrial growth decelerates in tandem with the Euro Area
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2018

Industrial output fell 1.2% mom on sda basis in June. This marks a slowdown of yoy growth to 3.2%, from 3.7% in the previous month. In terms of quarterly results, output growth decelerated to 3.3% yoy in Q2, from 4.4% in Q1 and 5.9% in Q4 2017.Industrial output growth and PMI Sources: KSH, MLKBT,...

Post-convention views and the balance of the electoral race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

The presidential candidates face each other in the first debate on TV Bandeirantes, this Thursday. The STF may discuss the freedom and ineligibility of former President Lula. Congress holds a “concentrated effort”. This week’s Talking Points • Post-convention views • The balance of the elect...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

As expected, the electoral scenario has been gaining clearer outlines as the deadline for officially registering candidacies approaches. As things stand now, the chances have decreased of two candidates from opposite extremes of the political spectrum reaching the second round, allaying the fears...

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