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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

CPI-inflation will most likely rise moderately further in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2018

The wholesale prices of fuel rose by 0.5% mom in July, following much faster increases - 10.1% in total - over the previous three months. Assuming the same monthly increase by the consumer prices of fuel and the same 0.1% mom increase in non-fuel prices as the one recorded in the same month of la...

Perspectives for the credit supply
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

The flows of new credit in real terms, both to households and firms, remained stable in the first half of 2018. On the one hand there was a steady decline in the interest rates on loans, together with a reduction in the level of default, indicating better credit conditions. On the other, the indi...

Soft growth in Q2 will not facilitate early tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Jul 2018

Recent economic indicators point to some slowing of growth, especially private consumption. We expect Q218 GDP to reach 2.5%, a low print that could complicate a rate hike decision in the near future. Our inflation forecast has been updated: 0.2% m/m in July, 0.3% in August, -0.2% in September an...

Will China step again on the gas?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the past three months a scandal has emerged at Huarong Asset Management which may turn out to have substantial implications for the Chinese economy and for asset liquidation abroad. Huarong is the largest of the four AMCs created in 1999, and ...

Turmoil
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Jul 2018 · 1 response

President-elect Iván Duque, just a few days from taking office, is already seeing new challenges piling up, which means everyone is looking to his first days, to ascertain his style. But some economic and fiscal challenges will loom, no matter what kind of president Duque turns out to be. The ...

Economy slows down but mining presents a new opportunity for 2019
PANAMA · Report · 27 Jul 2018

The economy´s slowdown in May was the deepest in decades, fueled by a month-long labor strike in the construction sector. The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) expanded at a rate of 0.76% y/y in May and 3.17% ytd, confirming our forecast of slower economic growth of around one percent due...

China’s lithium dreams: the OPEC of lithium
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Jul 2018

Chinese companies are amassing significant stakes in the world’s lithium producers, many located in South America. We estimate that China has the potential to control 66 percent of global production and 90 percent of global lithium reserves. While current levels are below that – 37 percent and 45...

COSTA RICA: A cloudy outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Jul 2018

The 2018-2019 outlook for the Costa Rican economy is cloudy. H1 2018 showed a slowdown in economic activity, a high central government financial deficit and a government debt-to-GDP ratio that had already surpassed 50% of GDP. On the other hand, inflation remains near the lower limit of the Centr...

​Father Brunson case: White House reads the riot act
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

24 hours after “terror suspect” pastor Andrew Brunson was released to house arrest, White House signaled in the strongest possible terms that he needs to be sent home, lest Turkey suffers “large sanctions”. Turkish officials responded with indignation, but the die is cast. This is clearly a break...

Maduro controls politics but not inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jul 2018

With elections over and the opposition grappling with its own internal differences, Nicolás Maduro has focused on renewing his alliance with the military and keeping a firm grip on the ruling PSUV. He and the top military brass have a tight relationship and are keeping a sharp lookout for any sig...

​Father Brunson’s fate tells many tales
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jul 2018

Dual elections and the excruciating summer heat didn’t bring tranquility to Turkish politics or peace of mind to the long-suffering political analyst of GSP- Turkey team, who is selflessly sacrificing his vacation to serve his audience. On Wednesday, a Turkish court suddenly ruled to remand Pasto...

​A third rate hike in August
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jul 2018

In a Q&A session with select analysts this afternoon, BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla told participants to expect "strong follow through" in monetary action on August 9, the next Monetary Board meeting. Asked what he meant by "strong", he replied "at least 25bps." Reasons given for the BSP’s increa...

A monetary policy measure - by the debt management agency
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jul 2018

ÁKK, the government's debt management agency has just announced a 50 bps increase in the interest it pays on fixed-rate household bonds, i.e. the special kind of HUF-denominated government debt, which is only available for purchase by domestic households. Thus the fixed interest paid on 0.5, 1 an...

The MNB said or did absolutely nothing, appears content with the current position of the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2018

Just as expected, the MNB said or did absolutely nothing new at today's rate-setting meeting, even though the forint is slightly weaker and more volatile than it was before the late-June Monetary Council meeting. So it looks like the MNB is in fact satisfied with the current market situation. The...

MPC disappoints, keeps rates unchanged
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2018

At today's meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee did not change any of the short-term interest rates, keeping one-week repo rate (policy rate) at 17.75% and O/N lending and borrowing rates at 19.25% and 16.25%, respectively (see graph). Recall that at the June 7th meeting, the MPC had ‘overdeliv...

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