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Law on Anti-Corruption Court Approved: Compromise Version
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Jun 2018

Parliament approved law on anti-corruption court (ACC) with 315 votes. Parliamentary commission today agreed upon a compromise role for international experts. Anti-corruption activists provisionally positively evaluated this version of legislation. According to Anti-Corruption Action Center, deci...

Fuel prices may turn inflation reports upside down in May and June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2018

CPI-inflation figures for May are due on Friday this week. We used to predict 0.3% mom, 2.4% yoy, the latter up slightly from 2.3% yoy in April. But we do not do so any more, given a 5.3% mom jump by the wholesale prices of motor fuels, recorded in May, which was caused mainly by the strengthenin...

The RBI hikes the policy rate
INDIA · Report · 06 Jun 2018

​The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI hiked the policy repo rate by 0.25 bps to 6.25%, voting 6-0 in favor of the rate hike. Today’s monetary policy decision took place at a time when there is pressure on the rupee to depreciate, bond yields are rising, EMs have been witnessing capital outflo...

An additional push that might not be enough
COLOMBIA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

The External Committee (EC) held its regular meeting on April 16th, where it established a new path for reducing the deficit of the National Central Government (NGC). The changes of the path that have been taking place since 2014, can be read in one of two ways. One, the fact that the fence of th...

South Africa’s GDP starts off another year with a contraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

​Just as we had anticipated and communicated in our previous report, South Africa’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2018. The annualized percentage change in the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP came in at -2.2% in the first quarter, following 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Besides t...

May inflation up; but lower than expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jun 2018

The headline inflation rate continued to inch up to 4.6% last month from 4.5% in April, due to a combination of higher food prices (including rice), oil-related services (particularly transport), and the impact of higher consumption taxes (particularly commodities subject to excise taxes, e.g., o...

Minister of Finance Resigns
PERU · In Brief · 04 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Minister of Finance David Tuesta resigned his post, apparently in protest for several conflicts with Prime Minister Villanueva and President Vizcarra regarding fiscal measures. Tuesta recently increased excise taxes on various products including fuels, tobacco, alcohol, sugared drinks, and automo...

The crisis leads to more questions in the MDB and the PSDB, and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Jun 2018

Two presidential polls will be released this week, a DataPoder360 poll on June 4, and an Ipespe poll on June 7. The PSDB launches its manifesto calling for unity in the political center around a single candidate. On Friday, June 8, IBGE releases inflation for May. In Congress, repercussions of Pe...

A mediocre recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jun 2018

In the first quarter of 2018, GDP grew by only 0.4%, and it only takes a quick glance at the behavior of the most important components on the aggregate supply and demand sides to conclude that even without considering the effects of the truckers’ strike, growth in 2018 will be significantly less ...

May data, AMLO forecasts; Nestora, self-defense groups and crime
MEXICO · Report · 04 Jun 2018

Economic data released in May confirmed that the economy continued to grow at rates similar to those observed during the previous three quarters, but the 1.3% expansion of GDP during the first quarter of 2018 was well under half the 3.3% increase registered for the same quarter a year earlier. On...

Medina faces his first big political defeat
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Jun 2018

President Danilo Medina is about to receive his first major political defeat. The effort to pass the bill on political parties most favorable to him (with open and simultaneous primaries) is failing. Medina could not get enough votes to pass the bill in the House. Nearly all the opposition, and t...

Policy tightening unlikely without a significantly weaker shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Jun 2018

Unemployment increased in April, but the labor market remains tight. * Unemployment reached 3.9% in April, up from 3.6% in March. * Unemployment for the 25-64 age group is up to 3.4% from 3.2%. * Job creation has slowed to 1.0% saar in Feb-April from 2.1% in 2017. * Slowing job cr...

Inflation rises further, eyes on MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2018

May CPI inflation came in at 1.6%, m/m, somewhat higher than the consensus expectation of 1.4%-1.5%, reflecting a myriad of mainly cost-push factors, such as lira depreciation, higher oil prices and the Ramadan effect on food prices. The 12-month CPI rate rose sharply higher to 12.1%, y/y, from 1...

Finance Minister Dismissal on Agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jun 2018

Last week media reported about open conflict between Prime-Minister Volodymyr Groysman and Finance Minister Oleksander Danylyuk. On May 23, at the Cabinet meeting Finance Minister strongly insisted on approval of his candidate for the position of his deputy. Instead Groysman removed State Fiscal ...

​Wait and see on the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2018

Two years after the new administration took power, the fiscal deficit continues to be large, and the current account deficit has been increasing. In implementing its fight against inflation the Central Bank expanded the stock of LEBACs to a level higher than that of the monetary base. In May, the...

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