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MNB: The forint can go wherever it wants
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

The Monetary Council decided today to keep all interest rates unchanged and to RAISE the Q4 target for unsterilised bank liquidity to HUF300-500bn, i.e. by HUF100bn from the Q3 target. At a press conference following the release of the communiqué, the Bank said that they are not at all worried ab...

Trump's UN comments indicate a lack of enthusiasm for a conflict with Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 24 Sep 2019

World leaders will be trying to shape the global discourse over the Middle East at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, and perhaps even talking with Iran. Trump was the first to the podium this morning. He repeated criticism of Iran, blamed it for the Saudi attacks and said "As long as...

Economics: Misplaced budgetary optimism
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2019

In the second part of our analysis of the government’s 2020 budget package, we assess the outlook for public sector balances, as well as the revenue and expenditure levels of the proposed Federal Revenue Law and the Federal Spending Bill. While the government is projecting only slight increase...

Politics: Signs of a more nuanced view of AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 23 Sep 2019

A new nationwide poll taken by GEA-ISA shows a five-point drop in public approval of the job President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the latest sign of a duality we first detected in June between the President’s generally high approval ratings and slippage in enthusiasm for some aspects of the cur...

Pension Reform should be approved with an ample majority in the Senate's first round and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro gives the opening speech at the United Nations General Assembly. The environment and the Amazon will be prioritized in his speech. The Senate votes on the first round of Pension Reform. Senators will also analyze Augusto Aras’ appointment to the PGR. In the economy, we hi...

Grappling with the slowdown by means of a corporate tax rate cut
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2019 · 1 response

The central challenge in Indian macroeconomics consists of the reduced investment rate of private persons. Corporate investment is now down to levels seen in previous slumps. There has been a sharp increase in the dividend payout rate. This shows firms paying out their cash, instead of investing ...

An exciting Monetary Council meeting is due tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2019

On Tuesday, September 24, the Monetary Council is scheduled to come together for a rate-setting meeting and to discuss the next quarterly inflation report. On this occasion, no-one expects any change in interest rates, and indeed, analysts seem to agree that no interest rate measure is likely at ...

A larger dose of monetary stimulus
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2019

We are reducing our SELIC rate forecast to 4.5% a year at the end of 2019. To what do we owe such change? The conditional projections shown in the Central Bank’s most recent communiqué, indicating that if the exchange rate remains stable at R$4.05/US$ and the SELIC falls to 5%, inflation would en...

Coalition formation will take some time, with no simple solution in sight
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Sep 2019

Economic indicators for early Q3 2019 point to robust growth, likely to reach 3%-3.5%. The labor market remains tight and at near full employment, unsupportive of more accommodating policy. Israeli institutions continued to sell FX in July, a trend that has supported shekel appreciation this year...

New Governor of St Petersburg promises renovation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2019

On September 18 Alexander Beglov was sworn in as the Governor of St Petersburg. St Petersburg is Russia's second biggest city and its former capital. The new governor pledged to upgrade the city's infrastructure. He has had himself filmed handing out snow shovels in readiness for winter. A large ...

​Erdogan’s historic summit with Trump---if it takes place
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2019

I’ve shirked my responsibility of contributing to our Weekly Tracker on Sunday, because the marque event of the week, i.e. Trump-Erdogan summit had not been arranged.To add some background, before he flew to New York City, Erdogan warned all stakeholders in Syria that the Turkish side has complet...

Gulf weekly: Aftermath of Abqaiq attack resonates but other business continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Sep 2019

The aftermath of the Abqaiq attack remained the main focus for the oil market and regional geopolitics. Developments to date seem to support our view that an escalation is unlikely and the focus is shifting to posturing and possible negotiations at the UN General Assembly over the next few days. ...

On the BRSA decision
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2019

We depart from our usual weekly format this week, and share some quick thoughts on last week’s BRSA decision that instructed banks to reclassify TL46 billion (about $8 billion) worth of loans as non-performing. We shall report on politics, and if need be on economics, during the week.

Secret negotiations over Ukrainian bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Sep 2019

The Financial Times published a story on September 19 saying that the Prime Minister of Ukraine Oleksiy Honcharuk is in negotiation with Ihor Kolomoisky about PrivatBank. Kolomoisky owned PrivatBank until it was nationalized in 2016. Kolomoisky then lived in Switzerland due to legal exposure in U...

Low growth, high fiscal deficit, and mixed news in the institutional front
PANAMA · Report · 20 Sep 2019

The growth rate in the second quarter was 2.8%, the lowest since the financial crisis of 2Q-2009. For the first half of the year it was 3.0%; therefore, the 4.0% growth that MEF projects seems difficult to achieve, despite the expected boom in copper exports. From a national accounting-GDP perspe...

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