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Country Insights

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Energy Reform Faces New Hurdles
MEXICO - Report 20 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

In recent weeks progress has been made in the implementation of the country’s energy reform thanks to passage earlier this year of implementing laws, whose main objectives, contents and characteristics were discussed in detail in two special reports that were publi...


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Political Insights: Week of October 20
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 Oct 2014

A decisive week in Congress for the elections for president of the Republic and governor in 13 states and the Federal District.Eight presidential polls will be published this week.The final presidential debate is scheduled on TV Globo, for Friday, October 24, the last day of free electoral adv...


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Despondent Outlook for the World Economy and the Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 20 Oct 2014
There is a climate of despondency in the global economy. Political disturbances have been heightening investors’ risk aversion, triggering a decline in the quotations of 10-year Treasuries. Along with this, concerns have been growing over the risks of deceleration of the international economy. Th...

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Weekly Tracker: October 19-25
TURKEY - Report 19 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

This week’s Tracker consists of a brief overview of the latest data releases, a preview of the upcoming MPC meeting and a lengthy essay by the wily Cosmic Strategist.

On the political side, there is not much to add to what we’ve already said during the week...


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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Oct 2014

Heated debate on SBT was positive for Aécio

Aécio Neves (PSDB) fared better than Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the debate aired yesterday on SBT.Unlike the TV Bandeirantes (Oct. 14) debate, when he was on the defensive, Aécio was able to explore issues on the economic agenda (increased infl...


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The Exorbitant Burden and The Scariest Graph in The World
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 17 Oct 2014

Last year I presented in this newsletter what I called “the scariest graph in the world”. It showed how some EU policymakers were expecting Europe to rebalance demand. The graph showed Europe’s current account surplus surging to 2-6% of Europe’s GDP. In the newsletter I argued that this “sol...


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When Lawyers Rule
COLOMBIA - Report 17 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Lawyers have dominated the Colombian landscape since independence from Spain. They explain a substantial portion of Colombian relative institutional stability; they currently want to re-established equilibrium between branches of government power, i.e. judiciary, le...


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Spending Less, to Pay More Debt
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 17 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

The proposed federal budget for 2015 is more restrictive than last year’s: though spending would rise 2.9%, primary spending is projected to fall, both in real and GDP terms, as the government aims to slice the non-financial public sector deficit, cut public investm...


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Turkey and ISIS: There is No Light at the End of this Tunnel
TURKEY - Report 16 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

The sudden jihad war declared by ISIS in Iraq and Syria, countered by the increasing resolve of major Western powers to destroy it, presents the AKP government with the thorniest challenges of its 11 year administration. Since the Turkey-ISIS relationship is highly c...


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Challenging Partnerships
PHILIPPINES - Report 16 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

After a false start in 2010, the Aquino administration’s flagship PPP program has finally roared to life. Several large projects have been auctioned off under seemingly competitive conditions which, contrary to model forecasts, yielded substantial revenues for govern...


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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Oct 2014

A Balanced Debate on TV Bandeirantes

The TV Bandeirantes debate conducted yesterday, October 14, ahead of the second round presidential election, was balanced.Dilma Rousseff (PT) was able to put Aécio Neves (PSDB) on the defensive at times, by bringing up controversial issues tied t...


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Education, Labor Reforms Fall Short
MEXICO - Report 14 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Among the many reforms that were adopted in the past 18 months two are of special importance to the future of education and the labor market in Mexico.But the reform designed to improve the quality of public education and the reform intended to create more flexible...


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Iguala, No Security Strategy in Sight
MEXICO - Report 14 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Evidence continues to grow that the September 26 attack on students from a rural teachers’ college in the city of Iguala, Guerrero, was carried out by municipal police in coordination with organized crime.The initial toll includes six people killed, three of whom we...


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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Oct 2014

Vox Populi confirms tie between Dilma and Aécio

The Vox Populi poll released Monday evening, October 13, by TV Record confirms the technical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB), similar to the Datafolha and Ibope polls last week.The difference is that in the Vox Po...


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Political Insights: Week of October 14
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 14 Oct 2014

This week, two presidential debates between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) will take place: the first will air on Tuesday, October 14, on TV Bandeirantes and the second on Thursday, October 16 on SBT.Three new polls will be released, but none will include the impact of the d...