GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The case with Nasirov has all chances to become a trigger for new mass protests. Ukrainians are tired with painful reforms and are extremely irritated with pervasive corruption. Previously, the authorities addressed people to tolerate painful measures for the sake of better future. Demanding peop...

Biding Our Time, But For What?

TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2017

The politics author is concerned that Turkey is becoming a dysfunctional party state. A vicious cycle of crackdowns and oppression infuriating the broader segments of the society is inevitable unless President Erdogan faces the bitter reality of long-term stagnation. We still have hope that he mi...

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2017

Fixed investment growth in Q4 2016 was a rather unimpressive +0.4% qoq, -24.1% yoy, implying exactly a 20% real-terms drop in the whole of last year. Incoming net EU transfers, by BOP, reached only 2.1% of GDP in 2016, sharply down from 6% of GDP in 2015. Finally, bank deposits held by non-financ...

Medina’s Popularity Sinks Amid Corruption Scandals

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 03 Mar 2017

The most awaited and reputable poll in the country has confirmed what many suspected: that President Danilo Medina's approval ratings have plummeted, with the public pointing fingers at the biggest political parties and several prominent political figures over corruption, and illegal enrichment o...

Weak Economy Ain’t No Fix For Inflation

TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2017

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 0.8% in February, raising the 12-month rate to 10.1%, up from 9.2% in January. The increase was broad-based with several categories seeing price increases higher than the same period of last year. Producer prices, reflecting the simultaneous cost-pus...

National anti-corruption bureau arrests Head of State fiscal service

UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2017

Media reports that National anti-corruption bureau arrested Head of State fiscal service, Roman Nasirov. Poor details are available but it looks like the arrest is formally related to investigation of operations of former MP Oleksandr Onishchenko who escaped Ukraine in summer 2016. What are the r...

Confirming the Export Turn-Around

INDONESIA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

In my previous report, I highlighted the turn-around in the export sector based on the preliminary data. The latest data on exports further confirmed the turn-around, which provides broad space for improvement in the overall economy. The rise of China as the number one export destination in the l...

Muted response to USA, no change in policy

VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Venezuela’s response to U.S. accusations and sanctions against Vice President El Aissami has been unusually restrained. The regime and opposition alike seem to be waiting for clearer signals regarding the Trump administration’s stance toward Venezuela. International pressure might push the reg...

Under Odebrecht Headlines, Watch for Fiscal Issues

PANAMA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Preliminary figures for 2016 show that the “adjusted” deficit of the NFPS was 1.5% of nominal GDP, at the ratio approved by the Fiscal Responsibility Law of 2007, as amended in 2012. (The revised deficit figure for 2015 was 2%). But the “true” deficit for 2016 was $1,350 million, or 2.5% of GDP, ...

Sentiments Flag Despite Growth, while Officials Remain Impassive as Death Toll Rises

MEXICO · Report · 01 Mar 2017

While news in February showed some aspects of the economy sustaining, and in some cases, improving on its pace of growth, market analysts continued to scale back their growth expectations at the same time as both producer and consumer sentiment further accelerated their descent. Uncertainty over ...

Q3 GDP at 7% despite demonetisation

INDIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2017

India's GDP numbers for the Oct-Dec 2016 quarter released by the Central Statistical Office show that GDP grew by 7 percent. This appears to be at odds with almost everything experienced in the quarter that witnessed a withdrawal of 86 percent of Indian currency. One explanation for the high GDP ...

No policy change at today's Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting today brought about absolutely no policy change, just as we, and essentially everybody else, expected. The base rate and the interest rate corridor remain at 0.9% and -0.05% to 0.9%, respectively. The Council's communiqué was also largel...

Old Wine in New Bottles

COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Feb 2017

The government’s new Colombia Repunta (Colombia Picks up) aggregates all of its short-term economic activity-boosting measures. As with previous packages, these are mostly existing initiatives. Though little is new, the government projects that the package will add 1.3 pp of GDP growth in 2017. T...

Political reshuffle knocks at the door

UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

Over the recent weeks we observe intensified activity of political players. Many rumors are circulating. We do not have rigid facts about what is going on but from pieces of information we’ve compiled our version of events. So, trade blockade of eastern Donbas effectively destroyed fragile balanc...

Beware of Black Swans in Syria and military

TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2017

This is a heads-up about potentially shocking news which might upset Turkey’s delicate relations with the White House abroad and the fragile equilibrium between AKP and the military at home. I predict that Trump’s new Syria plan will not enable Turkey to uproot Syrian Kurds from the Turkish borde...