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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Transition: What to expect from AF?
ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Will Alberto Fernandez (AF) be able to lead the Peronist/Kirchnerist coalition with a certain degree of freedom, or will he struggle with requests from his political mentor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, or her radicalized followers? Ever since Argentina’s return to democracy, in the early 80s,...

The risks and rewards of index inclusion in China’s bond market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Nov 2019

Changes in the Bloomberg Barclays index of bonds will expand foreign participation in China’s domestic bond market by $120 - $150 billion by 2020. Foreign ownership of Chinese financial instruments will become a wider part of both the Chinese financial system and the retirement funds of western i...

High CPI and robust growth likely to delay easing
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Nov 2019

The adjusted fiscal deficit in October moved slightly lower to 3.6% GDP LTM. Wage growth has moderated, weakening inflationary pressure. We expect inflation to reach 0.5% m/m (0.5% y/y) in October, at the high end of consensus. In politics, Lieberman set conditions for forming a unity government,...

More opening measures amid trade war
CHINA · Report · 11 Nov 2019

The economy continues to weaken. GDP was up 6% y/y in Q3, down 0.2 pps from Q2, and down 0.5 pps from Q3 2018. Investment was up 4.7% y/y, down 0.8 pps from Q2. Imports were down -2.9% y/y in Q3, down 5.2 pps from Q2, and down 21.9 pps from Q3 2018. Exports were up 3.9% y/y, down 1.8 pps and ...

Monetary Policy – The SELIC in the Easing Cycle Final Phases
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Nov 2019

With 12-month inflation significantly below the lower bound of the target interval, all the core IPCA rates highly stable and below the target, inflation expectations anchored, and the economy still lethargic, the Central Bank reduced the SELIC rate to 5% and indicated that at the next COPOM meet...

Bribery allegations against Russian bank mar trade with Africa
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2019

On November 8 a court in New York heard a case about Credit Suisse that led to the defendant, Andrew Pearse, making accusations against VTB Group. The bank is owned USD 535 million by Mozambique. Makram Abboud, a VTB executive, is said to have taken USD 2 million in bribes. In 2013 Credit Suisse ...

​Gulf weekly: Aramco woos investors and Adu Dhabi hikes its oil and gas reserves
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Nov 2019

Aramco released its prospectus and continued efforts to woo and cajole IPO investors, but questions remain. Abu Dhabi announced revised up its oil & gas reserves by the most in over 30 years, jumping to 6th place globally. Kuwait experienced rare protests (inspired by Iraq and Lebanon) and Qatar ...

Russia relaxed about terrorism case against it
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2019

On November 8 Ukraine filed a case in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Russia. Ukraine says that Russia has funded terrorism which is against international law. The pro-Russian rebels are not fighting for a sovereign state. Ukraine's argument is that unlawful violence is terrorism...

Trump associate trying to buy Ukrainian aerospace company
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Nov 2019

On November 6 it emerged that Erik Prince is negotiating to buy a Ukrainian aerospace manufacturer. The US is striving to prevent the company from being bought by the Chinese. The company is Motor Sich. Erik Prince is an informal Trump adviser and he is the founder of Blackwater the private secur...

October inflation figures represent a moderate surprise on the upside
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

CPI-inflation for October came out today at 0.6% mom, 2.9% yoy, the latter up from 2.8% in the previous month. The analyst consensus for the yoy rate was in the range of 2.7-2.8%, and our forecast was 2.7%. This moderate negative surprise was mainly blamed on food prices (up 0.8% mom on the globa...

Misguided dollar indexation
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Nov 2019

In October 2019, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) officially instituted dollar indexation in three spheres: commercial credit offered by banks, penalties for reserve requirement non-compliance, and rates on central bank open market operations. The BCV’s policy is ineffective and unsustainable....

Lula’s release will intensify polarization
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2019

The release of former President Lula (PT), a consequence of the Federal Supreme Court’s decision to restrict arrests until all legal appeals are exhausted, will give the opposition, especially the PT, much-needed political breathing room. Lula has been incarcerated since April 7 of last year at t...

​Erdogan Trump summit: Last chance to prevent sanctions
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

Important: Since both authors are traveling abroad this weekend, there will be no Weekly Report. Apologies. President Erdogan loudly protested the resolution by the House of Representatives condemning the so-called Armenian genocide, threatening to cancel his Washington visit. However, after rece...

Rumor that Russia will reduce share of USD in National Wealth Fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

On November 7 media stories appeared saying it is rumored that Russia will cut the share of USD in its sovereign reserves. An anonymous source in the Ministry of Finance was cited. The government is changing the fund's structure with a view to improving the pension system. Russia has been de-doll...

Loans to Russian corporates are falling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2019

Figures released on November 7 show that lending to Russian corporates is down. This is surprising in view of the Central Bank reducing the interest rate on four occasions since June 2019. In June 2019 it was 7.75%. In October 2019 it was lowered to 6.5%The loan portfolio of the country is 3.5% o...

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