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YES Bank unfolding
INDIA · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

As was emphasised by us earlier, the announcements about Yes Bank do not add up to a tidy completed resolution. More information has now come out about what will happen.The (delayed) financial statement of the bank for the quarter ended 31 December 2019 was released. Conditions have deteriorated ...

Despite weakening shekel, inflation to remain subdued, the BoI commences bond purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2020

Highlights of our weekly report: February's CPI declined by 0.1% m/m and 0.1% y/y (from 0.3% in Jan). Looking ahead, we expect inflation to reach 0.7% in the NTM, with the impact of a weaker shekel being mostly offset by weak consumer demand and lower energy cost. Economic data for February remai...

First significant measures against COVID-19
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

Yesterday, on the eve of the municipal elections, the government announced new measures to face the risk of COVID-19. We believe that this is only the beginning and that more will be taken in the coming days. President Medina has convened the Government Council (meeting of all ministers) to discu...

US imposes more sanctions on Rosneft
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

On March 12 the US Treasury announced sanctions on a department of Rosneft. The US claims that Rosneft is helping Venezuela evade sanctions. TNK Trading International is the Swiss-based entity that is being sanctioned. Any assets it owns in the US or that are controlled by US citizens are now fro...

Three OFAC decisions on Venezuela on 12 March 2020
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

Three general licenses issued on 12 March 2020 by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) hint at a calibrated decision-making process, by increasing financial pressures on the Maduro regime while avoiding harming the payment system or hurting U.S. persons operating...

South Africa Declares Coronavirus (COVID'19) a National Disaster
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

President Ramaphosa a short while ago informed the nation of his Cabinet's decision to declare COVID"19 a national disaster, introducing a raft of immediate measures to contain the spread of the virus. At time of writing, South Africa has 61 reported cases of positively diagnosed corona virus pat...

COVID-19 and Turkey: Take I
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2020 · 1 response

We take a first look at the impact of COVID-19 on Turkey, assuming that the pandemic will not be over by the summer, but that its spread in Turkey will be relatively contained. These may be relatively strong assumptions, but we thought it’s better to shed a dim light on the future of the Turkish ...

Russia severely limiting flights to Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2020

On March 12 Moscow announced that as of March 16 flights to and from European countries would be restricted. The precise number has not been declared. The number of flights to EU countries, Norway and Switzerland will be reduced. However, flights from Moscow to EU capitals will be unaffected. The...

Ukraine's severe corona response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

On March 13 Ukraine announced that as of March 15 all foreigners will be prohibited from entering the country until further notice. Schools are closed until April 3. Most meetings of over 200 people have been banned. Items for combating coronavirus cannot be exported. In Zhytomyr Region a state o...

Gulf weekly: Oman downgraded and others threatened by oil & COVID crises
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Mar 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi & UAE announced plans to hike output by 3.5m b/d. * Fitch downgraded Oman to BB (negative outlook), as the country looks to ra...

China virus check
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2020

We have assembled basic high frequency data on economic activity in China post-virus. The categories are: 1) Transportation. 2) Industrial data. 3) Employment (key word search). The industrial operating statistics show improvement for the most recent period up to the end of February. The pi...

Municipal elections to be held this Sunday
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

This Sunday municipal elections will be held throughout the country. This is a new call after the suspension of the February 16 elections due to widespread technical failures with the electronic vote affecting 62% of the electorate. 100% of the voting will be done with paper ballots and will proc...

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

Last night, President Rodrigo Duterte, upon the recommendation of health officials, announced that for 30 days starting March 15, Metro Manila will be put under “community quarantine”, a term that he said means a lockdown. The measure was in response to the rapidly rising number of covid-19 infec...

MasterCard and Visa can continue operating with government-owned banks in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Risk to the payment system has been averted. Today, 12 March 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 15c allowing Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue transacting with Banco de Venezuela and Banco ...

The NBU surprises with 100 bps prime rate cut, down to 10%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Interesting decision of the NBU. On March 12th, the NBU Board approved prime rate cut by 100 basis points down to 10%. This move was a surprise since already for several days Ukraine’s ForEx experiences panic attack amid COVID-19 news flow. Falling global markets as well as plunged oil prices pro...

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