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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

U.S.-China trade war likely to be short-lived
CHINA · Forecast · 08 May 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1, with GDP up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, a 0.6 pps rise from Q4. Investment was up 7.5% y/y, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017. But price-adjusted investment growth was up only 1.2% y/y, though private investment r...

Adding fuel to the crisis
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 May 2018

The Banesco takeover hurts financial sector stability, feeds distrust, and fuels hyperinflation, recession, and loss of value of the bolivar. The largest bank in the country, accounting for 25 percent of total deposits and 26 percent of total loans, 8 million depositors (in a country with only 31...

Presidential race - Volatility until the reformist center can show signs of life and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2018

In a week without a holiday, legislators try to advance votes on matters of interest to the government. President Michel Temer may announce the regulation of Route 2030, a new program to stimulate the automotive industry. The Supreme Court examines the appeal against the arrest of former Presiden...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2018 · 1 response

The probability of a presidential candidate from the center, with a reform agenda, being elected in October is unknown, aggravating the uncertainty resulting from the perception of a change in the external scenario. Nothing indicates this situation will change until mid-year. Recent economic indi...

Weaker shekel and wage pressure support higher inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 07 May 2018

Shekel weakness is expected to push inflation higher this year, to the low end of target. Wage growth is also accelerating, because of a tight labor market and minimum wage hike. The fiscal deficit is likely to reach the target this year (despite positive numbers through April), and a tax cut app...

Economics: Election year forex volatility redux
MEXICO · Report · 07 May 2018

Mexican presidential election campaigns have long been preceded by months of foreign exchange and stock market volatility. The source of such turbulence generally involves uncertainty as to what sort of program each competitive candidate might implement and which candidate is likely to emerge vic...

Changing in the external scenario: Are there any consequences for Brazil?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2018

With the American economy running at full employment (the jobless rate is below the NAIRU) and the government following an expansionary fiscal policy (reduction of the corporate income tax approved by Congress), the tendency is for the dollar to get stronger, not weaker as President Trump wants. ...

Politics: Anaya faces a tough road to victory
MEXICO · Report · 07 May 2018

The two weeks since the year’s first presidential candidates’ debate have not been good to Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose poor debate performance appears to have capped his rise in the polls. Both the PRI and the Front alliance have stepped up their attacks on the candidate, whose campaign is...

A battle of alliances
TURKEY · Report · 06 May 2018

With three leading opposition parties forging an electoral alliance, general elections turn into a proportional representation race, where AKP-MHP’s advantages are significantly eroded. A few polls that collect data on alliance basis suggest the lead of AKP-MHP has narrowed or might have even dis...

Loud and Clear
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 04 May 2018 · 1 response

Today’s practically combined announcement of the Central Bank early in the morning and the follow up press conference of the "economic ministers" (Treasury Minister Dujovne and Finance Minister Caputo) intend to send a loud and clear message to the market: Despite (the anticipated) FX pressures, ...

A battle for electoral control
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 04 May 2018

The Dominican Republic and China have announced the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. This implies that the DR recognizes only one China, with Taiwan a part of it. The deal has led to the rupture of the DR’s 77-year diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. But investment opportunities tha...

​Core Inflation Back Above 12%
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 May 2018

April consumer price inflation came in at a higher than expected 1.9% (consensus, us included: 1.6%), even though we had noted that the risks would be on the upside, on the back of recent lira weakness -- with the lira having weakened by over 4% in April against the basket, atop a near-3% weakeni...

EU budget: What falls by how many percent?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2018

The EU Commission's proposal on the 2021-2027 EU budget is now out and official. But it is somewhat difficult to understand, as the EU's own communication is somewhat sketchy and still complicated (a course for them on presentation skills could be useful), and as many journalists are starting to ...

China and the Dominican Republic establish formal diplomatic relations
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 May 2018

Last Sunday, the Dominican Republic and the People's Republic of China announced the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. This implies the recognition of the Dominican Republic that there is only one China and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of its territory. For this reason, the rupt...

Irony and contradiction in current politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 May 2018

Less than 30 days before the first round of the presidential election, some apparent contradictions could cloud our judgement of current Colombian politics. First, Vargas-Lleras seems to be destined to attracting less than 10% of likely voters, in spite of having close to 40% of professional poli...

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