VENEZUELA - Report 25 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decr...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014

Dilma expands lead over Aécio, according to Datafolha and Ibope but race still open

Dilma Rousseff (PT) has expanded her lead over Aécio Neves (PSDB) in the Datafolha and Ibope polls released on Thursday, by six and seven points respectively.The results of the polls were positive fo...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014

In all the second round debates, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has generally performed better than Dilma Rousseff (PT).This time was no different.Dilma, however, performed much worse than in the other debates.At times confused and stammering, the PT candidate could have done better.

If the Glo...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 25 Oct 2014

This morning a CNT/MDA presidential poll was released.According to the poll, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has 50.3% of valid votes, while the PT candidate has 49.7% of valid votes.The poll has a 2.2 percentage point margin of error. The poll presents a growth trend for the PSDB candidate and a decline f...

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 24 Oct 2014

The Central Bank announced that accumulated GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year reached 7%, almost twice as much as the rate registered for the same period in 2013.

Mining was the leading activity with 24.1%, followed by construction (10.7%), tourism (8.2%), hea...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 23 Oct 2014

New Minister, Old Promises and Familiar Measures

South Africa’s new Minister of Finance tabled his maiden budget policy in the midst of many competing expectations. The Minister faced an unenviable balancing act of reviving a faltering economy with GDP growth down to 1.4%, and ever-r...

TURKEY - Report 23 Oct 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today, as it had done in the previous meeting (see graph). The statement was also virtually identical to the previous one, except one small change on the inflation outlook in a more dovish direction. The reference to be...

UKRAINE - In Brief 23 Oct 2014

Yesterday fresh sociology was released on political parties’ ratings. In general the picture did not change much for Block of Petro Poroshenko as well as for Radical party of Oleg Liashko; however, we see significant changes in support of other parties. In particular, it looks like Arseni...

HUNGARY - In Brief 22 Oct 2014

Fact: The draft budget for 2015 is not publicly known yet. This is normal in an election year, when the legal deadline for the draft’s delivery to parliament is end-October. But the draft is now at the Fiscal Council for preliminary assessment, implying that the usual leaks...

CHILE - Report 22 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Most analysts expect the third quarter to be the bottom of the cycle, and the economy to start slowly recovering by year-end. But pessimism is everywhere. The Monthly Index of Business Confidence (IMCE) is at a historical minimum. Consumers do not seem to be very optimistic, ...

MEXICO - Report 21 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

Last week, the National Electoral Institute (INE) announced that the four political parties that proposed ballot initiatives for next year had all managed to collect the minimum number of valid signatures needed (at least 2% of all registered voters or around 1.6 mi...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 Oct 2014

Race Still Open despite Dilma’s Numerical Advantage

Three polls released this Monday (MDA, Datafolha and Vox Populi) brought good news for President Dilma Rousseff (PT).Dilma has taken over the numerical lead (according to MDA, she has a 1-point lead; Datafolha and Vox Populi give th...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 21 Oct 2014

Below, for your guidance, is a table with the eight voting intention presidential polls scheduled to be released this week.

UKRAINE - Report 21 Oct 2014

Next weekend (October 26) Ukraine will conduct early parliament elections.To a large extent all surveys give strong political support to the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko; however, it is unclear with whom he will be comprising his alliance. Many voters (including ourselves) have not decided for who...

TURKEY - Forecast 20 Oct 2014

Executive Summary

As we approach the end of another year of “rebalancing”, like in 2012, the absence of a secular narrative and the sense of “stuckness” in Turkey’s macro outlook are becoming all the more apparent. We think this has been vividly illustrated by the government’s recently...