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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pushing on a string in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Mar 2020

Will China flood the economy with capital to engineer a rapid rebound from the virus? This seems to be the assumption among investors on and offshore about the Chinese markets. I remain skeptical that a big stimulus will be effective due to the increasing inefficiency of stimulus measures in the ...

Recent difficulties India faces
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

In 2020, the Indian government has been grappling with four challenges:The political conflict associated with the citizenship question,The financial crisis, where Yes Bank has particularly been under stress,The problems of telecom, where Vodafone has particularly been under stress,Covid-19.In thi...

Erdogan & Putin sign ceasefire in Idlib, will it last?
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

After six and a half hours of negotiations, Erdogan and Putin failed to agree on most points of contention concerning Idlib, but preferred to prioritize their strategic alliance. The result is a cease-fire protocol, which calls for division of Idlib into two de-facto zones of control, belonging t...

Great ‘cleaning’: reputable Chief Prosecutor dismissed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

Yesterday, on March 5th, parliament dismissed Ruslan Ryaboshapka, Chief Prosecutor, who was seen as the person capable to break corrupt traditions in law enforcement bodies. Mr. Ryaboshapka was highly appreciated by international observers and local anti-corruption activists. Many named him clean...

The deficit on South Africa’s current account narrows in Q4 2019 and for 2019 as a whole
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed by R120 billion during the fourth quarter of 2019, falling from R188 billion in the third quarter to R68 billion. As a ratio of GDP, the current account deficit fur...

Macro and markets: Russia and global turbulence
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Risk-off trades dominated the markets last week, affecting almost all financial assets in the EM universe, as well as commodity markets. In response to Covid-19 the Fed cut its rate by 50 bps, and other leading central banks may follow suit, also softening their monetary policy, while governments...

The MNB is still in a tightening mode
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

Just like a week earlier, the MNB left the outstanding stock of FX swaps unchanged at this Monday's tender, accepting exactly the same amount of bids as the weekly amount of maturing swaps. Yet the forint has strengthened to EURHUF 335-337 in recent days, following a few days spent around 340 in ...

New PM in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

On March 4 President Zelensky dismissed Prime Minister Honcharuk. Zelensky appointed Denys Shmygal as prime minister. The Rada (parliament) confirmed the appointment. Shmygal, 45, has no political party. He is a businessman who once worked for the Ministry of Revenues. More effective tax collecti...

Cabinet reloaded: changes on critical points expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

The Honcharuk Cabinet was dismissed yesterday on March 4. What was the real reason behind this dismissal – we can only guess. Honcharuk was weak Premier, apparently, not ready to face the challenges he was expected to deal with. But his dismissal has some other reasons, we believe. Most likely sl...

Russian billionaire fighting US tax case
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

On March 2 Oleg Tinkov was granted bail in London where he is fighting extradition to the United States. Tinkov is a banker who previously held US citizenship. He has since renounced his US citizenship. The IRS accused him of underreporting his income. His wealth is estimated to be USD 2.2 billio...

Russia responds to coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

Russia has banned the export of face masks and haz mat suits in response to coronavirus on March 4. The government is discouraging business trips. In Moscow metro passengers are subject to random temperature checks. The Chinese Embassy has complained that Chinese people are being singled out for ...

Voting preference for Abinader above 50%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 04 Mar 2020

This week, two highly credible polling firms, with excellent records in predicting electoral results, have published the results of their recent polls on voter preference. The results of the surveys conducted last week, just days after the suspension of municipal elections, confirm two things. ...

Confoundingly complacent
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2020 · 1 response

We take a quick look at economic developments in our by-now familiar Q&A format. Growth forecasts for this year and beyond, which appear appallingly unfazed by wars, viruses and reserve losses, continue to look highly complacent to us. Never mind the strong headlines, underlying growth dynamic...

South Africa’s economy enters into another technical recession for the second time in two consecutive years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Mar 2020

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth contracted by 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019. The decline of GDP by 0.8% (downwardly adjusted from -0.6%) during the third quarter of 2019 suggests that the South African economy was in a technical recession in H2 2019. As such, since the great r...

Sale of Sberbank will probably be delayed by Bank of Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2020

On March 2 the Bank of Russia (CBR) suggested that selling Sberbank should be postponed from June 1 to December 1. The 6 month delay is due to coronavirus. CBR plans to sell the 50% stake that it owns in Sberbank. Sberbank's shares have plummeted 10% since February 11.

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