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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Transiting from depression to euphoria
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2018

The Central Bank’s June Monetary Policy Report was more hawkish than that of March. The Central Bank is preparing the market for the next cycle of monetary policy tightening, which should start before year-end. Perhaps the most relevant point was a downplay of the risk of a non-convergence rate t...

Economics: Signs of further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Aggregate supply and demand data through the first quarter of 2018 showed stronger-than-anticipated growth, thanks largely to a 6.4% jump in public investment that snapped a three-year streak of sharp declines. The marked rise in public investment is explained by increased government constructio...

Options for the main parties in the presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Former President Lula’s defense will try to appeal the denial of its request for Lula’s freedom in the Federal Supreme Court. On Tuesday, June 26, the MDB discusses the presidential race. In the economy, we highlight the minutes of the most recent Copom meeting, at which the group decided to keep...

Politics: What we are yet to learn
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Save some totally unexpected development or a massive failure of all polling, it is almost certain that Andrés Manuel López Obrador will win the presidential election. The main uncertainty at this point involves the eventual margin of victory, with polling aggregators showing the three-time presi...

A scenario filled with uncertainties and undergoing intense mutation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

With the United States in full employment, growing faster than the potential and with an expansionary fiscal policy, the dollar has been appreciating, inverting the international conditions that were favorable to emerging countries. Brazil does not have a balance of payments problem, but it does ...

We expect the first rate hike in March 2019
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Household demand appears to be slowing, due to slowing consumer credit growth. Residential housing starts decelerated in Q118, which is expected to keep housing inventory tight, supporting higher housing prices, especially rentals. Zoom In: The MPC will be patient before tightening, probably n...

COPOM’s correct decision
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Despite the upward shift and steeper slope of the yield curve, the Central Bank’s decision to keep the SELIC rate at 6.5% did not cause any negative reaction from economists, who almost unanimously anticipated this action. The appreciation of the dollar has caused the real to depreciate, a reacti...

Downward pressure on growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Growth is facing downward pressure. Chinese fixed asset investment, a key growth driver, was up by a new low of just 3.9% y/y in May, and down 3.6 pps from Q1, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would apply tariffs of 25% to roughly $50 billion worth of Chinese goods....

​(B)ahceli for Victory
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

These are my first impressions, which are likely to evolve during the course of the day. It is too simplistic to say “Erdogan and AKP-MHP have won, and nothing will change”. First, AKP has lost big, dropping 7 handles vs. November 2015 general elections. Erdogan has only clinched victory, because...

​Final Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP win, unofficially speaking
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

I must stop my coverage before the final drama starts to be able to serve my audience fresh and early tomorrow. Despite its promises beforehand, at 12:15 midnight, the High Election Council is yet to announce the preliminary results of the elections. This minor detail has not stopped Erdogan from...

Third Post: Erdogan readying for “balcony speech", opposition disputes AA reports
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

According to independent Haberturk TV, Erdogan has won in the first round, and he will “soon” make another one his famous balcony speeches. While other mainstream broadcasters are more circumspect, already Mahmoud Abbas and İlhan Aliev congratulated Erdogan for his victory. At home MHP leader Bah...

​Second Post:Erdogan and AKP-MHP likely to win
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

With 80-85% of the ballot counted, official media heralds a 4 point lead for Erdogan in the presidential race, while AKP-MHP has a daunting 55 seat majority in the Grand Assembly, as pro-Kurdish HDP scrapes by the 10% qualifying hurdle. The Fair Election website is still down, while the single op...

​First Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP lead amidst conflicting claims
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

At 8 pm Istanbul time, the vote count is proceeding much faster than I had anticipated, thus I decided to start my entries one hour before the scheduled time.Currently, main stream media relying on Anatolian Agency, shows Erdogan leading with 56% of the vote, followed by Muharrem Ince at 29%.In g...

The political impact of Ricardo Martinelli's extradition
PANAMA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2018

Let’s define “uncertainty” in the current context. Panama will formally initiate the political campaign next August when Cambio Democratico (CD), the party created by former President Martinelli (2009-2013) -today on the opposition side- will hold its primary election to nominate the Presidential...

You can read me later
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2018

We are fully aware that this Brief won’t make the top item on your weekend reading list, but since we will not release a weekly report this Sunday (because of elections), we thought we should quickly touch upon some of the developments and data releases of the past week – for the record. May b...

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