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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

En route to the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2018

As per our expectations, the second round of the presidential elections will be a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT). There were no surprises, despite expectations (30% likelihood) that Bolsonaro could win in the first round, or that Ciro Gomes (PDT) would substantially ...

Tito Mboweni is South Africa's new Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Oct 2018

As predicted in my yesterday's Note, SA has a new Minister of Finance today- it is the 5th Minister of Finance since December 2015.Mr Tito Mboweni is SA's x-Governor of the Reserve Bank, as well as the first Minister of Labour in post-1994 democratic South Africa who served in Mandela's Cabinet. ...

KPMG TO AUDIT NATIONAL BANK OF GEORGIA
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2018

The Georgian Government announced on 27 September that they are appointing KPMG to audit the National Bank of Georgia. Georgia is eager to achieve a reputation for fiscal probity. This will make it easier to obtain loans. Tblisi has also spoken about developing itself as a financial services cent...

Economics: Serious Fuel Price Policy Dilemmas
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2018

In recent weeks the price of oil has risen considerably in international markets. Some media commentators have advised that the oil rally will considerably bolster public finance in the next two years. They have also placed special emphasis on the idea that the extra infusion of funds could allow...

The first months of the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Oct 2018

The new government will have to quickly obtain the political support necessary to achieve fiscal consolidation, to put the country on the road to stronger cyclical recovery and sustained growth. But at the outset it will face four major challenges. The first is how to react to the worse inter...

Will the President’s Jobs Summit help revive South Africa’s employment creation?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018

The South African government hosted the Jobs Summit 2018 that took place from 4th to 5th October 2018. Earlier this year (February 2018), President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his maiden State of the Nation Address (SONA), highlighting that the creation of jobs (especially for the youth) will be at...

Politics: AMLO, Security and the Generals
MEXICO · Report · 08 Oct 2018

In recent days President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador revived and expanded upon a campaign promise to establish some type of civil guard to absorb the nation’s military and public security forces, despite the fact that his long time aide and hand picked choice for minister of public security...

South Africa may soon have yet another Finance Minister - A developing story.
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

Speculations are ripe that Minister Nene may soon be out of his job. This emerged following his testimony to the Zondo Commission of Inquiry - alternatively known as the State Capture Commission. On Friday, Minister Nene disclosed his meetings with the Gupta brothers, visiting their business prem...

Rate hold expected today on low core inflation and strong shekel
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Oct 2018

Despite the lack of data due to the holiday season, the little data we have points to some improvement following a weak Q218. - The BoI composite index increased by 0.36% m/m in July-Aug. - Debit card purchases increased by 5.1% saar in June-August. - Manufacturing is up 2.4% m/m in July, f...

Rethinking regional strategy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Oct 2018

Regional elections outcomes in September 2018 came as an unpleasant surprise to the Kremlin after many years of tight control. All the federal entities that got to the second tour of the governors’ elections have either resulted in a loss for the Kremlin-backed candidate or the outcome is still u...

COSTA RICA: Fiscal Reform Bill advances in congress
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 08 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Despite the turbulence of a widespread strike called since September 10th by several public sector unions, demanding the withdrawal of the fiscal reform bill, the Congress continued its discussion and approved it, by a 35-22 vote, in the first reading on Friday October 5th, 2018. The legislative ...

Yoy consumer inflation likely to rise temporarily in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2018

KSH is scheduled to put out its CPI-inflation data for September at 9am Budapest time tomorrow. We expect the yoy headline rate to rise further, to 3.6% from August's 3.4%. This forecast is based essentially on three factors:(1) a likely 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices, on the back of a 1.5% mom inc...

Choppy waters ahead...
TURKEY · Report · 07 Oct 2018 · 1 response

The recent relative improvement in market sentiment has shown the importance of improving relations with the US, and of orthodox economic policies, as manifested by CBRT’s September rate hike. But further progress is between the lips of President Erdogan, who reveals little sign of conduct change...

International actors will be key
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

With the Venezuelan crisis spilling across its borders, pressure on the Maduro regime is coming from all directions: sanctions, formal diplomatic actions, critical reports from multilateral agencies, and tough rhetoric from the United States. Venezuela was high on the list of concerns of the usua...

Political Overview: Beneath and beyond the waning “Ramaphoria”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Oct 2018

​This is a Special Report on South Africa by Dr. Mzukisi Qobo, formerly Chief Director of Trade Policy at the Department of Trade and Industry. In the past eight months, South Africa has experienced a slight change in the tone of policy. A number of moderate reforms have been carried out, incl...

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