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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Starting low
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Jul 2018

Putin’s approval rates have been negatively impacted by the pension system reform discussion that started shortly after the new government was formed. A proposal to increase the retirement age precipitated a sharp negative reaction among the general public. Although expected, it could not be cont...

18 July prevented me from writing a monthly
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2018

GlobalSource Partners Turkey team has sent its Weekly Reporton vacation until end of August and canceled its joint Monthly, not because we ran out oftopics to cover, but because the fast pace of events require more frequent and narrowly-focused analysis. As far as Yours Truly, the humble Politica...

New structures, old challenges
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jul 2018

The new economy czar Mr. Albayrak made his first remarks on the economy, which were encouraging, but lacked specificity. Needless to say, delivery and implementation will be the key, which, to say the least, is an extremely challenging mission to fulfill under the circumstances. In fact, with no ...

Rough reality check
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Jul 2018 · 1 response

The past weeks have been a rough reality check for a government that is struggling to advance with a now “accelerated gradualism” toward a more stable and productive economy. Despite the Macri government's more predictable political behavior than its predecessors', and its efforts to unwind inher...

Thumbs up from the USA, thumbs down from Venezuela and Bolivia
ECUADOR · Forecast · 13 Jul 2018

The Ecuadorian economy decreased 0.7% q/q in Q1 2018, but still grew 1.9% y/y (the lowest positive change since Q1 2016). The slowdown in recovery that started in Q3 2016 can be linked to a sharp decrease in public expenditure, which in Q1 2018 fell $2.63b q/q and $348m y/y. There was also a cont...

China’s Property Squeeze: Developers face a liquidity crunch
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Jul 2018

Out of all the sectors in China, property developers are suffering the most due to recent liquidity tightening policies from the central government. On one hand, traditional financing channels of bank loans, sales outstanding, private placement bonds, and offshore bond issuance have been signific...

The NBU raises prime rate on IMF program concerns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2018

In May we anticipated the IMF issue will be resolved by mid-July. However, the deal is still delayed and we think this point was the main reason why the NBU Board increased prime rate by 0.5ppt up to 17.5% on July 12th. At the press-release the NBU, as usually, talks about mounting inflation risk...

Parliament Completes One More IMF Requirement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2018

Yesterday, on July 12, Ukrainian parliament finally approved the amendment to the law on the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) moving the already-heard corruption cases for appeals in Appeal chamber of the HACC. Initially the currently filed corrupt cases were subject for appeals in the regular c...

CIS Macro Political Roundup – July 12, 2018
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2018

Armenia – velvet revolution? Ukraine – the conflict bubbles on. Russia – intense media focus on the World Cup allowed the Kremlin to announce an unpopular policy. Kazakhstan – hosting the Silk Road Conference helps China in Central Asia. Azerbaijan – talking to Kazakhstan about oil transports thr...

Increasing internal revenue allotments
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Jul 2018 · 2 responses

It seems that the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) was as surprised as anyone by the Supreme Court’s decision yesterday on a 5-year old case involving local government units’ (LGU) share of revenues collected by the national government. Under Philippine law, local governments are entitle...

Duque makes the right decision in appointing Carrasquilla as Minister of Finance
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jul 2018

President-elect Iván Duque has just announced that Alberto Carrasquilla is officially his pick for Minister of Finance. Carrasquilla, a 59-year old economist with ample experience in the Central Bank and Minister of Finance between 2003 and 2007 during the Uribe administration is, without a doubt...

Exports and remittances more important than IMF funding
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Jul 2018

The big question in the air is whether Ukraine can survive 2019 without help from the IMF. The media shared key messages from a report released by the NBU, which projected that the hryvnia would depreciate powerfully under a “no IMF” scenario, especially if prices of resources on global markets f...

Inflation surpassed the target level in June, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jul 2018

CPI-inflation rose further to 3.1% yoy in June, from 2.8% yoy in May. This was exactly the number we predicted and also fell in line with market expectation (Portfolio.hu's poll averaged at 3.2%). There was certainly no great magic in making that short-term forecast: the monthly increase in fuel ...

The waning industrial output in the second quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jul 2018

The truckers’ strike undermined industrial output in May, and when all the numbers are known, gross industrial production in the second quarter should also show a decline. Although not enough information is yet available about the service sector, which has large weight in GDP, preventing assessin...

Hyperinflation with a life of its own
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2018

We revised up our monthly inflation estimate for June to 127 percent, from 103 percent in our previous report and our July forecast to 116 percent (from 107 percent). Inflation will accelerate further in August to 148 percent owing to seasonal factors. Inflation for the first eight months will re...

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