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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Control issues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2017

Russia’s leadership had not really expected that a long-delayed response to expulsion of Russian diplomats from the US and Congressional anti-Russian sanctions would be met with yet another move from the US. After Russian diplomatic properties in the US were closed by a US decision, the Kremlin u...

Tense politics yet improving activity
ARGENTINA · Report · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response

After relatively positive results for the government in the recent primary elections, the political heat ahead of the actual midterm elections is increasing, with particularly harsh cross-fire between Cambiemos and the Kirchnerists. In what seems to be an attempt to shift public focus away fr...

The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017 · 1 response

For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but recov...

Inflation up in August, industrial output growth temporarily (?) down in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2017

Inflation data for August came out marginally higher than market expectation, and pretty much in line with our forecast, this morning. The headline rate jumped to 2.6% yoy, quite sharply up from 2.1% yoy in July, despite just 0.1% rise in the CPI in August alone. Just as we wrote in our previous ...

Record inflation in August, possible slowdown in September
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Sep 2017

We adjust our August estimated monthly inflation rate up to 32.6 percent from 28.0 percent. Year-on-year inflation rises to 748 percent and accumulated inflation for the year through 31 August 2017 rises to 357 percent. The push in August came from a stronger than expected increase in the pric...

Embarking on a New Growth Cycle
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Sep 2017

The economy is performing far better than expected. Derzhstat, the statistics agency, reported a 2.4% y/y GDP increase in Q2, twice faster than we initially projected. Booming local investment — +22.5% y/y for H1 — and recovering consumption are the drivers. Remarkably, this result was achieved d...

​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her speech t...

The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

Indonesian Quasi-Sovereigns
INDONESIA · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Indonesian quasi-sovereigns are mostly in the form of state-owned enterprises. Currently there are over 100 SOEs, and many of them also have subsidiaries. Among the many Indonesian SOEs, Pertamina stands out as the largest company. Pertamina has several subsidiaries, and some of the subsidiaries ...

Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

Aiming for an Image of Judicial Independence
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Sep 2017 · 1 response

The National Council of the Magistracy (CNM) last month appointed new judges to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest court for the resolution of electoral conflicts. Although the appointments, factually under control of President Danilo Medina, secured the PLD’s control over the court,...

Fuel prices likely to push up yoy CPI-inflation markedly in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2017

Please, be prepared this Friday (September 8) for a marked jump by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation, to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July, despite our expectation of zero one-month change in average prices in August. This is likely to be caused by fuel prices alone (7.5% of the CPI basket), which we ...

Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2017

Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

The end of the recession – sealed by two straight quarters of GDP growth – and the continuing decline of inflation, interest rates and unemployment, are positive signs offered by the competent economic team. However, on the political side the picture is the opposite. The president’s fragility, re...

Week of September 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2017

This Thursday’s holiday (Independence Day) will reduce the pace in Congress, which may conclude the vote on the new fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018. In the Lower House, another attempt to move forward with Political Reform and Refis; in the Senate, the Provisional Measure that creates the TLP co...

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