NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Will slower demand and a good monsoon give us a rate cut?
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Jun 2016

The credit policy announcement on Tuesday, June 7, 2016 comes at a time when CPI data shows a rate of 5.4 percent for April, and GDP growth of 7.9 percent for the Jan-Mar quarter. This has led most commentators to expect no change in the policy rate in the upcoming announcement.But an argument fo...

Week of June 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2016

The information published by Veja magazine on the plea bargain deal signed by Leo Pinheiro (OAS) and Marcelo Odebrecht will have serious repercussions in Brasília. The Senate Impeachment Committee defines its work schedule. In the House, we highlight the decision of the Ethics Council on Eduardo ...

Modest Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2016

GDP expanded by 2.5% in 1Q, in line with market expectations. The leading sector was the manufacturing industry, up by 5.3%, mostly as a result of the Cartagena Refinery’s operation, which soared by 20%. The rest of the manufacturing industry’s performance was less spectacular, aside from beverag...

Might the Recession be Nearing its End?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2016

A few weeks ago we showed that our leading indicator already presages that GDP will stop falling in the third quarter this year. Last week the IBGE announced that GDP in the first quarter only declined by 0.3% – far less than the median of expectations. This was good news. However, when looking a...

Economic growth in April: 10.1%!
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Last week, the Central Bank announced that the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE, for its Spanish acronym) for the month of April registered a 10.1% expansion in economic activity. This is an impressive figure, with few precedents. Also IMAE results for March registered a growth of 7.2...

The Waiting Game
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Two pollsters give Pedro Pablo Kuczynski al slight lead according to their 'rapid count', which is based on a sample of actual voting ballots.Ipsos Kuczynski : 50.5% Fujimori : 49.5%GFK Kuczynski 50.8%: Fujimori: 49.2%Error margin: plus/minus 1% ONPE, the oficial electoral body will not be able t...

Ahead of Today's Election Results
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

During the very last days of the campaign we have seen a rapid climb in the vote intention in favor of Kuczynski. They are now neck and neck and given an error margin of 2-3 pp up or down, it will be difficult to draw a meaningful conclusion early on just by assessing exit polls. Later in the eve...

Weekly Tracker: June 5-11
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2016

An Armenian genocide bill that was passed by the lower chamber of the German parliament hurt Turks’ feelings, but it is unlikely to lead to substantive sanctions by the government. On the other hand, the Refugee Deal is dead and Turkey-EU relations are unlikely to be a matter of economic or marke...

A setback at Audi found behind the weakness industrial output
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2016

As is well-known for the reader, gross industrial output only grew by a marginal 0.5% yoy in Q1, dominated by a 1.4% yoy decrease of the output of the car industry, which represents close to one-third of the total industrial sector. And all that came after 8.8% yoy growth in industry and 18.6% yo...

Candidates in the runoff now tied
PERU · In Brief · 03 Jun 2016

The clear 5 pp lead just a few days and in the Sunday's Ipsos poll (the last day poll results are allowed to be published in Peru) has practically vanished. The latest private poll by GFK conducted on Wenesday and Thursday now show Fujimori leading by just 0.6pp (2.3 error margin ). The Fujimori ...

Benign May Print Should Help the MPC
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2016

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, m/m, same as last year, which left the 12-month rate unchanged at 6.6%. Food prices dropped in May for seasonal reasons, but less so than in May last year, taking the 12-month food inflation up to 2.5%, from 1.4% in April (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Key disinflatio...

International pressures escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jun 2016 · 1 response

The report on Venezuela published on May 31 by Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), will heighten international pressures on the Venezuelan government if it’s approved by the organization’s permanent council.

Stress in Electoral Oversight Could Deepen Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jun 2016

Indicators published in May reinforce our analysis of economic weakening trends, though there were promising developments, too. The monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) suggested a gradual firming of economic activity (+3% in March, the highest level ytd). We also saw further evidence of expanding service se...

A Dirty Float
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2016

In this report we review the trajectory of the peso, given BCRA polices vis-à-vis a floating exchange rate regime with FX interventions (i.e., a dirty float). The Central Bank started to buy currency for its reserves in mid-January, when the peso dropped below 13.5. Yet, it inverted its net buy...

A Sign of Slower Growth?
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2016

The Central Board of Statistics recently released the National Account Statistics for the first quarter of 2016, which reported slower-than-expected growth. General expectations were that Indonesian economic growth would be somewhat higher than the previous quarter, but the CBS reported a rate of...