NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: BRAZIL...

Ana Amélia strengthens Alckmin’s campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2018

​Senator Ana Amélia (PP-RS) has agreed to be the VP on Geraldo Alckmin’s (PSDB) presidential ticket. This is extremely positive news for the PSDB candidate. Ana Amélia, aside from strengthening the campaign of the former governor of São Paulo in the South region, where Álvaro Dias (PODE) has show...

Food inflation slows, helping headline
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Aug 2018

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.55% in July, compared with consensus expectation of 0.9%-1% (July 2017: 0.15%), which kept the 12-month rate a bit under 16% -- for now (15.85%). Producer price inflation continued to edge up, so did core (C-index) and service inflation, however, wh...

The Silver Linings Playbook
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Aug 2018

Turkey has marched to the end of a cul-de-sac, faced with a ‘no-choice’ between a painful belt-tightening program and restoration of relations with the West, or risking further economic deterioration and political instability. With global economy growing at a relatively healthy pace, monetary nor...

New BMW assembly plant to be beneficial for growth, less so for inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

BMW has just announced its intention to build a new assembly plant in Eastern Hungary. The location of this plant will be Debrecen, the country's second largest settlement (203 thousand inhabitants), the expected capacity is 150 thousand cars per year, and the unit would employ over 1000 people w...

Taking his case to the public
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2018

Massive judicial corruption unveiled via a barrage of audio tapes leaked to the press has given President Martín Vizcarra an opportunity to press for political reforms. The president has proposed an overhaul of the judicial system, a ban on reelection of members of Congress, and reinstatement of ...

Alckmin gains momentum in an open race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2018

Three polls on the presidential race released this week (DataPoder360, Paraná Institute and XP/IPESPE – the latter conducted only in São Paulo) show that the race is still wide open. Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads all three polls. While he is stagnant at around 20% of intended votes, Bolsonaro ha...

A clear road ahead
CHILE · Report · 01 Aug 2018

In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) once again surprised markets on the upside. Expectations for GDP growth continue to improve – this, despite that in May, the 12-month variation of retail sales fell sharply, coming in below the expectations of even the most pessimistic anal...

Financial needs forecast update
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

In our report of July 23, with our third quarter forecasts, we have introduced some changes in Table 8, regarding the financial accounts. We raised our forecast of the financing needs from the market to USD 28.6 billion. This compares to the USD 25.9 billion in the second quarter forecast. The in...

RBI hikes interest rates
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India hiked the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent today. The move came after RBI had hiked rates for the first time after 4 years in June 2018. Inflation data in India shows that while there has been a moderation of food p...

South African Political Economy Temperature Rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

Structural and cyclical factors have combined to make the SA political economy scene in the country dynamic, robust and often times confusing. President Ramaphosa, meanwhile, keeps committed to his vision of reviving ethical leadership, reigniting the country’s self-image of ‘unity in diversity’,...

The return of optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jul 2018

After displaying some pessimism, Kompas Daily, the most prestigious and credible newspaper in Indonesia, reported the return of optimism in the FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) industries. A number of retailers gave testimony to the optimism they shared. The FMCG industries also reported better-...

TV ad time does not equal electoral success and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

These are the last few days for political parties to hold their conventions and define candidates and coalitions ahead of the October elections; the deadline is Sunday, August 5. At least five additional presidential candidates will be made official in the next few days. Congress and the Superior...

Mixed economic indicators and mixed economic and political signals
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jul 2018

July has produced a batch of economic indicators showing generally positive results against the backdrop of national elections that gave a clear mandate to a man who continues to advance contradictory economic and fiscal policies - a hefty degree of inconsistency that leaves business leaders and ...

Can private banks fill the gap created by weak public banks?
INDIA · Report · 30 Jul 2018

An optimistic reading of Indian banking involves the proposition that India is achieving a useful de facto transition from public-sector-bank domination to a domination by private banks. In this reading, private bank credit is growing fast and will supplant the lack of credit growth by the publi...

Political uncertainty and asset price volatility
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2018

Although the real has recently appreciated in parallel with the drop in the country’s CDS quotations and slight flattening of the yield curve, asset prices remain extremely volatile. That variability is partly due to the change in the international scenario, dominated by the monetary normalizatio...