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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

El Salvador: Still Awaiting Economic Dynamism
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

El Salvador seems destined to keep living with low economic dynamism. Despite the opportunities generated by a positive international environment, GDP growth is likely to continue running at 2%-2.5% y/y. As anticipated after 10 months in 2015 with negative inflation rates, deflationary risks are ...

The central bank’s gold reserves
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

A review of the 31 December 2015 balance sheet of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the Notes to the Second Semester 2015 Financial Statements leads us to conclude that the central bank’s gross reserves appropriately record the effect of the 2015 gold swaps but net reserves (reserve assets ...

Impeachment Committee: The rapporteur will present his report on May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2016

The president of the Impeachment Committee in the Senate, Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), decided that the report to be written by the rapporteur, Antonio Anastasia (PSDB-MG), will be presented on May 4. The committee will hear the authors of the impeachment request against the president on April 28 (Mi...

A forint-negative Tuesday, due to monetary and fiscal policy announcements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

The current excessive strength of the currency - the forint trying to break out of the EURHUF 310-315 range in the southbound direction quite often, while growth is spectacularly weakening - was hit by two pieces of official communication today. 1. The central bank reduced the base rate and the O...

Medina Headed for Landslide Win
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Apr 2016

As campaigning for the May 15th general election enters the home stretch, nothing has surfaced to dramatically change the forecasts: President Danilo Medina and his PLD continue to head toward a landslide first-round victory. Two reputable opinion polls found that Medina’s popularity had even inc...

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss With our economist, Dr Murat abroad with business, the task of evaluating the first public performance of new CBRT chairman Mr. Cetinkaya has fallen upon me, the Political Analyst. The lines below are my personal impressions, ...

Growing Confidence in the Government
INDONESIA · Report · 25 Apr 2016

In his second year in office, President Joko Widodo apparently has succeeded in garnering more confidence in his presidency. This conclusion was derived from the recent survey conducted by SMRC (Syaiful Mujani Research and Consulting), released in mid-April 2016. The path of confidence in Jokowi’...

Week of April 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Analysis of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff will advance in the Senate. This week, the committee to analyze the process will be installed. Given the mostly pro-impeachment composition, the government is admitting defeat. The Supreme Court will analyze the case on state debt with the f...

Election-proof?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Apr 2016

The Philippine economy continued to chug along in 1Q16 as internal growth drivers benefited from low oil prices and election spending, with remittance inflows remarkably resilient and further amplified by a weaker peso. Looking at the next 12 to 18 months, the crucial question for the local econ...

Change of Government and Resumption of Investments: What can be Expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

The probability is now higher that Brazil will soon have a new government, with sufficient support to make substantial changes in economic policy, enabling the start of a cycle of reforms. The appreciation of Brazilian assets is a first reaction in this direction, but it will take much longer for...

Ecuador Tries to Rise After the Earthquake
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Nobody was prepared for the catastrophic event of April 16. The aftermath is still being assessed, and even though President Correa’s assessment that the resulting costs will be around $3 billion or 3% of GDP might be premature, it is clear that the reconstruction will take several years. Minis...

Weekly Tracker: April 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2016

Turkish politics will be entering a dark tunnel as of the start of this week, our politics author argues, which promises nothing but turbulence and uncertainty. As a result, political risks will indisputably rise, but providing a precise timing as to when is extremely difficult. You may read the ...

​The formal end of Default
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2016

Today, once government pays Holdouts their judicial claims and with it enables BoNY to receive payments for restructured debt holders, Argentina will formally end a more than 14 years default. This represents (much needed) good news, not just for the sovereign, but for the economy as a whole as i...

Interesting Times
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Apr 2016

The Colombian state still faces three main challenges to achieving peace: the demobilization and reintegration of the FARC fighters; reparations for victims; and rural development. The target date for finalizing the deal was recently postponed to an indefinite date -- but it’s likely that some ag...

MPC Does the Expected, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2016

​The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its first meeting today under the chairmanship of the new Governor, Mr. Murat Cetinkaya, opting for a 50 bps cut of the O/N lending rate to 10% (simple), in line with expectations of the majority of analysts, including us. The other two rates – O/N borrow...

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