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Bahceli shuts the door to AKP and CHP
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2015

In Turkey’s political pundit community I am be alone in relying almost exclusively on public statements by party authorities, while others prefer divining ulterior motives and listening to Ankara rumors. According to my unique method, early elections suddenly came to outrank both AKP and CHP led ...

​More questions about Turkey’s politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2015

Once again I want to use the opportunity of astute questions asked by a reader to share my views with the entire readership. As usual the name of the inquirer shall remain anonymous. · Can the president block formation of a non-AKP minority government easily, even if AKP does not have enough vote...

Weekly Tracker: June 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2015

Executive Summary An air of unreality surrounds the nation, with pundits trying to convince us that coalition formation would be easy, as parties shut the door to any compromise. Unless reality sets in and each party makes very unpleasant sacrifices, early elections are more likely. We shall get ...

Growth: Good Headline, Poor Dynamics
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2015

GDP growth came in at 2.3%, y/y, in the first quarter of the year, better than both the consensus (1.6%, CNBC-e) and our even weaker (1%-1.5%) forecasts. But this hardly changes the fact that the underlying growth dynamics or momentum remains weak. It looks like private consumption drove growth i...

General Elections: Turkey enters the era of political instability
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2015 · 4 responses

General Elections: Turkey enters the era of political instability General elections shed light on several questions that vexed experts’ minds, but immediately kindled new ones which are proving to be intractable. My current guess is that it will be very difficult to form a coalition of any kind, ...

​First Update: Voters reject Erdogan at the ballot
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2015

I expected a close election, but that wasn’t it. AKP won an easy victory, but according to preliminary unofficial results fell roughly 20 seats short of the majority to form a single part government. Pro-Kurdish rights party HDP easily catapulted over the 10% qualifying hurdle, while CHP and to a...

May Inflation: Food Down, Core Up...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Consumer price inflation came in at 0.56% in May, broadly in line with expectations, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.1% from 7.9% a month earlier. Domestic-PPI also rose to 6.5%, from 4.8%, largely reflecting a reversal of favorable cost-push factors (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Food ...

A Pre-Election Recap
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2015

Executive SummaryOn the eve of general elections, there is fear in AKP ranks, loathing for the party among the opposition parties and an expectation of great surprises among so-called experts like us. While final polls indicate a razor-thin victory for AKP in terms of the seats, the trepidation i...

Weekly Tracker: May 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2015

Executive Summary The recent batch of poll data indicates that the two heroes of the election, namely AKP and HDP are stalling, while the main opposition party CHP has gained momentum. Based on the new data and our momentum analysis, we revised our election estimates and post-election scenarios. ...

KONDA poll shakes markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 May 2015 · 5 responses

For right or wrong, the KONDA polling and market research agency is considered the most accurate among poll watchers. Today’s afternoon sell-off is not related to American first claims data, as widely reported in Turkish financial press or some investment banking commentary but the release (for p...

Lira Is All That Matters, Redux
TURKEY · Report · 20 May 2015

Today, as expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short term-interest rates unchanged (see graph). The only difference from the previous MPC statement concerns the belated inclusion of a sentence on the adverse impact of lira weakness on core inflation dynamics (“…recently elevated...

Weekly Tracker: May 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2015

Executive Summary With three weeks left to the ballot date, opinion polls mostly reflect the political bias of the polling company, rather than the reality. We stick to our forecast of a weak AKP victory, with HDP making it to the parliament. Yet, it is quite possible that voters are lying to pol...

Weekly Tracker: May 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2015

Executive Summary Turkish election campaigns have mutated into a three-way mudslinging match between AKP-MHP and HDP, while CHP has been marketing hugely expensive populist promises. We have a large number of polls, but they don’t increase our comfort with predictions.HDP is hovering right at the...

But Next Year, It Will Get Better...
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2015

Today’s inflation print was unfavorable, with CPI inflation coming in at a higher than expected 1.6%, m/m. This has raised the 12-month CPI rate to just under 8% (7.9%, to be precise), further complicating the CBRT’s job and expectation management (Table 1; Graph 1).Food is largely to blame for t...

Weekly Tracker: May 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2015

Executive Summary We reviewed the latest polls and revisited our scenarios. In 6 recent polls that we find credible, AKP is firmly in the lead but HDP makes it to parliament by the skin of its nose, while CHP is treading water. Nevertheless, poll momentum suggests that short-lived coalition gover...

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