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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Budget and growth: Russia’s 2020 budget spending depends on its ability to borrow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP was down by 8% in 2Q20 and provided the GDP sectoral breakdown by production. A month ago, when Rosstat announced its flash estimate of 2Q20 GDP, the decline was a bit deeper – 8.5%. Ongoing upward revisions are generally in line with our long-standing view that...

Revisiting 2021 growth outlook
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

We are revising our overly pessimistic 4% GDP growth forecast for 2021. The number suggests that recovery will be in fits and starts coinciding with repeated region-wide lockdowns. While we cannot from experience rule that out, it is not our base case scenario. Rather, we expect ongoing experimen...

CA surplus reaches 4.6% GDP in Q220
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2020

Fundamentals continue to support a strong shekel The CA surplus in Q220 increased to 4.4bn USD from 3.5bn in Q120 and 4.0bn one year ago. This improvement was due to a decline in the trade deficit and an increase in the service surplus. During the Covid crisis, merchandise imports declined more r...

On sanctions, COVID and the downgrade
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2020

The final trimester of the year may turn into the season for sanctions on Turkey, with EU and a potential Biden administration turning to the stick approach to punish perceived transgressions. There is no prospect of war between Turkey and Greece in East Med, but hostility to her now extends to G...

Market pessimism on the back of plans for renewed lockdown
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2020

Highlights of the Israel Weekly Macro Wrap Up Recent positive indicators likely to be temporaryWith Israel likely to enter a renewed closure (whether partial or total, it is still unclear), economic activity is likely to decelerate.We currently expect GDP growth to reach -5.5% this year (previous...

Relatively favourable fiscal outcome in August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Sep 2020

The central government's cumulative cash deficit came out as HUF 2261bn or 7.4% of GDP in January-August, slightly down from the 8.1% reported in July and the 8% number recorded in H1. To a great extent, the improvement was due to the collection of HUF 283bn in reimbursement from the EU in August...

Armenia relaxes state of emergency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Sep 2020

On September 11 the government ended the state of emergency which was declared in March 2020 due to coronavirus. Nationwide quarantine remains in place until January 11.People must wear face masks in public including on the street. Social distancing is mandatory. School and universities are openi...

Public expenditure: the chief inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2020

According to our estimates, inflation hit 22 percent in August, a number close to our earlier forecast of 23 percent. Also, August brought the slowdown we had projected for the pace of upward dollar movement against the bolivar, to 24 percent from July’s 29 percent. August year-to-date inflati...

Russia and Belarus discuss unity
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2020

On September 11 the Kremlin said that Putin and Lukashenka will discuss unification on September 13. In 1999 Belarus and Russia signed a treaty agreeing to reunite eventually. Russia has been frustrated at Belarussian foot dragging on the issue.Now that Lukashenka is desperate for support he is w...

​The Government releases its macroeconomic projections for 2020-2024
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Sep 2020

The Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development released on Wednesday afternoon the update of the Macroeconomic Framework for the period 2020-2024. The projections contained in this update are those used in the formulation of the Public Budget for 2021. For 2020, the Government is projecting a ...

Peru: A new political crisis brews
PERU · In Brief · 11 Sep 2020

Last night the new Congress elected in March started an impeachment process on President Martin Vizcarra. That this is happening less than two years ago when former president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was ousted by the previous Congress indicates that not much has changed in the confrontation between...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Covid cases rise, Bahrain issues, Trump supports MBS
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil fell to a three-month low of $39 on demand weakness and rising stocks. * Coronavirus cases are rising sharply again in Bahrain and UAE. * Bahrain issued $2bn at lower...

According to the Secretariat of Economic Policy, services need to grow by 17% to reach pre-COVID levels
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2020

The service sector, the main employer in the country, still needs to grow by 17% to reach pre-pandemic levels, according to a study published by the Secretariat of Economic Policy. According to the Secretariat, growth in the service sector has not been comparable to the other sectors. The ser...

South Africa’s current account balance reverts to a deficit in Q2 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Sep 2020

Another unwelcome economic metric came out today as data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) indicates that the country’s current account switched to a deficit in the second quarter of 2020 after it recorded its first surplus since 2003 during the first quarter of 2020. It is worth ...

The CBR plans to publish the anticipated long-term trajectory of its key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Sep 2020

Today CBR published the draft of the “Key directions of the monetary policy in 2021-23”. In addition to updating macroeconomic projections and introducing various scenarios of the development of the Russian economy, the regulator indicated that it is almost ready to start forecasting and publishi...

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