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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A windfall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2022

We update the outlook we presented to you just four weeks ago. A little more than a month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine and in an environment of tremendous volatility and uncertainty, oil prices have risen sharply, world oil and gas markets are undergoing restructuring, and the e...

​The Federal budget surplus rises in March
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus reached R614bn and R1.151trln in March and 1Q22. The revenue collection was strong both on the side of oil-and-gas and the non-oil-and-gas taxes. In 1Q22, the government collected 28.7% of total targeted for 2022 revenues (31.2% of ...

Castillo against the wall; further downside economic risks; Central Bank to deliver two more 50-bp shots
PERU · Report · 12 Apr 2022

​Faced with widespread nationwide protests, and after his advisors warned of possible serious disturbances in Lima, President Pedro Castillo delivered an April 5th midnight speech, during which he imposed an immediate 22-hour curfew in Lima and Callao. The demonstrations had begun on March 28th, ...

Lula had dinner with MDB leaders in Brasília yesterday, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the ISS bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

Former Senate President Eunício Oliveira made a point of stressing that the dinner does not mean Simone Tebet's candidacy will be boycotted. It is also worth mentioning that the MDB is negotiating an alliance with the PSDB, União Brasil and Cidadania for October. It is unlikely that the third way...

Politics: Presidential recall referendum, main implications
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2022

The results of the presidential recall referendum may be considered as a good or a bad outcome depending on the comparisons one makes. Its implications for the 2024 elections do not favor the president, and it can be projected that the fight to control the INE and the legality of elections assume...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

​Just for the record: new fiscal 2021 figures has published by MEF. The NFPS deficit in 2021 was revised upwards
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

Austrian Chancellor visits Moscow and Kyiv to talk peace
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

On April 11 Karl Nehammer spoke to Putin in person for an hour. His attempt to persuade Putin to end military action failed. Nehammer then flew to Kyiv to meet Zelensky.Austria is an EU but not a NATO member. Therefore, its attempt to broker peace was not rejected outright by Russia despite the E...

Economics: Despite recent consumption and investment growth, the outlook remains weak for the next two years
MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The latest private consumption and gross fixed capital formation data showed their main indexes experiencing growth at January in an extension of what has been a recovery trend for almost a year and a half. The rise in GFCF extended to construction as well as to spending on both imported and dome...

Lula stumbles at the start and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The Holy Week holiday will reduce activities in the legislature. The União Brasil may announce its pre-candidate for the Planalto Palace. Public servants are expected to decide to go on strike for salary raises. The Executive Office will send the LDO to Congress. On April 16, the electricity bill...

​Russia’s current account remained strong in 1Q22 and in March as well
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

The CBR published its first estimate of the country’s 1Q22 current account which reportedly reached $58.2 bn. The trade balance over the same period accounted for $66.3bn, as exports and imports reached $156.7bn and $90.4bn. All numbers looked strong, including for March as in January exports and...

Politics: AMLO radicalizes discourse and actions to bolster his power and shore up his base
MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

In the past weeks, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has radicalized both his discourse and measures on several levels, all in an effort to consolidate his project and ensure its continuity with a Morena victory in the 2024 presidential elections. Sparks have been flying between the country’s...

Exchange Rate, Fiscal Fundamentals and Fiscal Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The strongly rising inflation casts doubt on whether the SELIC rate of 12.75% for an extended period will be sufficient to bring inflation to the target in 2023. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, it can help achieve this goal somewhat. In this report, we analyze what has been happenin...

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets The Bank of Israel decided to hike by 0.25% to 0.35% today, while markets (and myself) had expected a hike of 0.15% to 0.25%, although I saw a 35% probability of a 0.40% hike to 0.5%. The more hawkish bias is due to a combination of accelerating inflation ...

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