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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The sterilisation rate went up by 30 bps today, meeting expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2022

At today's tender, the MNB raised its fixed interest rate for 1-week deposits by 30 bps, to 6.45%. This was exactly the same as private sector analysts' median expectation, following the 100 bps increase in the base rate, to 5.4%, at Tuesday's Council meeting.These latest decisions were also an e...

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure, the Senate will analyze presidential vetoes today, and there was yet another setback for Operation Car Wash
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Apr 2022

The House approved the Auxílio Brasil payments of R$ 400. The rapporteur, João Roma, former Minister of Citizenship, accepted an edit to make this value permanent. Today, the National Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. To overturn a veto, an absolute majority of votes is required — at lea...

A promising start to South Africa’s economy in 2022 following a robust recovery in 2021, but risks have intensified
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Apr 2022

• South African growth: South Africa’s economy underwent a robust recovery of 4.9% in real GDP during 2021 from 2020’s deep contraction of 6.4%. On top of growth coming from a low base as well as the recovering global economy acting as a tailwind, South Africa’s growth was also propelled by the s...

Inflation Report: ​Inflation forecast is up, but still sanguine
TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2022 · 1 response

The second Inflation Report of the year has been released today, where the Bank, as expected, raised its yearend inflation forecast for 2022 markedly higher to 42.8% (midpoint of a range between 38.7% and 46.6%) from 23.1% in the January report. The 2023 forecast was also raised by 4.7 pps to 12....

Stagflation risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2022

Even as the IMF warned of stagflation risk for Asia, economic managers are happily taking note of the multilateral agency’s rosier outlook for the Philippines. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF nudged up its GDP forecast for country this year from 6.3% to 6.5%.Although the adjustment ...

Reasons to be pessimistic
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2022

Colombia’s Fuel Price Stabilization Fund deficit is projected to reach nearly 3% of GDP in 2021-2022, with a peak annualized deficit of COP 26.1 trillion this year. The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule published an analysis that is both timely and courageous: it warns that structural solut...

Peru: Referendum on a Constitutional Assembly
PERU · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On Monday and with the approval of the Cabinet, President Pedro Castillo and Prime Minister, Mr. Anibal Torres, submitted to Congress a draft proposal calling for a referendum on a Constitutional Assembly due on October 2nd, and at the time of mid-term State and Municipalities elections. The draf...

Fidesz won easily and faces all the economic and foreign policy mess currently developing
HUNGARY · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022

The governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance won the parliamentary election by a surprisingly large margin early this month. Their victory was no surprise at all, but the continuation and even a slight increase of their constitutional majority was entirely unexpected. Fidesz’s win has removed a great deal ...

The Argentine economy: a forecast for 2022 and a guess for 2023
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 27 Apr 2022

It is extremely difficult to forecast the Argentine economy for the remainder of the presidential term of Alberto Fernandez, in spite of the macroeconomic program that is being supported by the IMF through a 45 billion dollar EFF. The main difficulties originate in the new global circumstances cr...

Neither Uribe nor Petro, and of course not Duque
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022 · 1 response

In a text called “Today's Colombia”, former President César Gaviria set out to “paint the court” where he believes the government starting on August 7 will play. He starts out by admitting that his Liberal party made historical mistakes in the second half of the 1990s that led to a right-wing pha...

The House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisional measure today, the third way parties met again yesterday to define the candidate selection criteria, and the TCU has decided to resume the trial of the privatization of Eletrobras on May 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2022

The movement in favor of letting the MP expire because it has already fulfilled its purpose did not move forward. In other words, the measure will be put to a vote. The president of the House, Arthur Lira, is calling for the payment amount to be set at R$ 400, and the government is betting on Lir...

UN Secretary General in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On April 27 Antonio Guterres visited Putin. He had a candid discussion with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who warned NATO that it is risking World War III.Guterres said he was on a peace mission. He said that the UN General Assembly had voted that Russia had violated Ukraine's territory and in...

Russia is ready to cut trade with the EU even more
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

As Russia announced that the supply of gas to Poland and Bulgaria stopped, it looks as though the Russian authorities are ready to cut foreign trade with the EU even more as the country no longer needs that much euro liquidity. The euro is seen as a second-tier currency in Russia, given that the ...

Firing at Russian bases in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On April 27 there was firing at a Russian arms depot in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria. Russian troops have been there since 1991 against the wishes of the Moldovan Government. Ukrainian drones flew over the Russian depot there and there were explosions. 20 000 tons of ammunition a...

Russian gas cut off to Bulgaria and Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022

On April 27 Russia announced that Gazprom has suspended all sales to the two EU countries. That is because they refuse to pay in RUB. The contracts state that the gas will be paid for in EUR. In March 2022 Putin said unfriendly countries had to pay in RUB. He did not at first carry out his threat...

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