GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The first bi-monthly meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded today. In contrast to the previous monetary policy announcement, the focus this time has been on managing inflation and withdrawing the excess liquidity through formal instruments. The RBI acknowledged that the di...

US bans exports to Russian airlines

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 8 the ban was imposed on Aeroflot, Azur Air and Utair. The US accused the airlines of breaking sanctions. Aeroflot had flown Boeing aircraft which was a violation of a previous sanction. The airlines will not be able to buy American goods for 6 months. They are banned from using US-made ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

The Russian ruble has bounced back in recent days/weeks as more sanctions were announced and a great number of Western exporters terminated their business with Russia. Demand for imports in the country fell and amid a sort of capital controls combined with increased risk of holding money outside ...

Third way parties have set a timeframe to join forces, the TCU will discuss the privatization of Eletrobras, and the Ministry of Mines and Energy released a new list of appointees to the leadership of Petrobras

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2022

The statement between the third way parties was signed by the presidents of União Brasil, MDB, PSDB and Cidadania. The União Brasil, which still does not have a pre-candidate, should launch a candidacy on April 14. The candidate who will represent the group will be determined on May 18. Today, a ...

US and UK announce new sanctions on Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

Washington DC announced new sanctions on Alfa Bank and Sberbank and on Putin's daughters. London promised to stop all Russian oil and gas purchases by the end of 2022. The UK has sanctioned Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow.The EU is about to ban all imports of Russian coal. The EU wants to phas...

No rate hike and a weaker forint this morning

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2022

In a surprise move - at the very least, we were surprised - the MNB has not raised its sterilisation rate further today, calling the usual weekly deposit tender with an unchanged 6.15% fixed interest rate. This worked as an outright invitation for EURHUF to try itself above the 380 level, followi...

Coalition stability weakens

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Apr 2022

The stability of the coalition weakens One member of Benet’s party Edit Salman, announced her resignation from the coalition. This will weaken the narrow majority of the coalition (from 61 members to 60), although the “Arab List” could support the coalition without actually joining the coalition....

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

Lula and Bolsonaro advance while the others stall and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

This will be a busy week due to the deadline for party affiliations and resignations. Bolsonaro will likely build a new ministerial team. Up to eight governors are expected to resign from their positions to run for another elective office in October. This week's Talking Points: * Eduar...

Commodity Prices, Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In 2019, Brazil’s current account deficit was US$65 billion, while in 2021 it reached only US$24.5 billion. Our projections for 2022 indicate there should be a small surplus. The greatest contribution to this result will come from the balance of trade, whose surplus will benefit from the rising i...

Long-term RMB trend remains stable

CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2022

Economic recovery has been relatively strong, thanks largely to export and fiscal policy support. In January-February, industrial output rose 7.5% y/y, up 3.2 pps from December 2021. Investment was up 12.2% y/y, up 7.3 pps from 2021. Real estate investment increased 3.7%, having stopped its previ...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · Report · 28 Mar 2022

1. Deputy Governor Abir suggested that more aggressive tightening is likely, due to inflation acceleration. 2. The labor market is rapidly returning to pre-Covid employment levels, considered full employment. 3. Hi-tech service exports continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel...

Research trip reflections: the impact of a changing Saudi Arabia and differing approaches to the oil windfall

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2022

I've just completed a 3-week 6-country tour around the GCC to take a sounding of the mood as Covid cases and restrictions ease. I had dozens of meetings with academics, officials, journalists, business leaders, investors and others, whose time, insights and hospitality I greatly appreciate. Trave...

The Bank of Israel prepares markets for aggressive tightening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

The Deputy Governor suggests aggressive tightening ahead At a conference on Thursday, Andrew Abir said: “In view of recent developments in inflation and the increase in expectations, the process of monetary tapering may be more rapid than we thought.” Clearly, a rate hike on April 11th is to be e...

Uptick in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2022

Three Armenian soldiers were killed on March 25 in skirmishes with Azerbaijan. The two countries fought a war in 2020 that Azerbaijan won. There are Russian peacekeepers keeping the Armenians and Azerbaijanis apart. This is supposed to ensure that neither side fires on the other for fear of hitti...