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Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY - Report 16 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

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Markets Stirred; Economy Will Chug Along
PHILIPPINES - Report 14 Jun 2013
Just two weeks after the government announced much-better-than-expected 7.8% GDP growth in 1Q2013, which bucked the regional growth slowdown, local stock prices grabbed headlines with the worst one-day dive since the Lehman crisis in October 2008.Many were stunned by the steep fall, especially fo...

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President Putin Unveils Budget Policy Address for 2014-2016 - Shows Support for Minfin Policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
V. Putin officially presented yesterday the Address on a meeting with the Government, Presidential Administration, CBR and Duma leaders (http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/5581). Budget Policy Address is an official document signed by the President. It can be seen as a guide to the Government on fiscal p...

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Erdogan backs down on Gezi Parki
TURKEY - In Brief 14 Jun 2013
Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that a.      As long the current injunction by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze the parkb.      Regardless of the final court verdict a plescibite will be heldIn return AKP wants protestors to vacate the Gezi Park. Ye...

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Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Jun 2013
Monetary authorities kept policy stance accommodative amid outflow of capital from the region.  On balance, recent global financial developments positive for the Philippines providing breathing room for overbought financial markets (peso depreciated, interest rates up, stock prices down).  If sus...

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Retail Sales: Modest Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Jun 2013
The seasonally adjusted retail sales numbers for April show slightly stronger growth: in the restricted concept sales grew 0.5% and in the augmented concept (including cars and construction materials) they expanded 1.9% (Graph 1). Over the past 12 months through April, the rates are lower than in...

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Dominican Rep: in spite of announcements, public spending remains sluggish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 13 Jun 2013
New figures on public spending for April show that in spite of the announcements made by the government that it will accelerate spending in public infrastructure, during that month, total spending remained as sluggish as during the first quarter.  Most likely, that meant a month of slow growth, a...

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May Political and Economic Overview
MEXICO - Report 13 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryThe setback in headline inflation sentiment index can largely be explained by increasing erosion of consumer expectations. That signals that consumer spending will stay weak through Q2.Flagging consumer hopes for household finances, and the broader economy, will evolve over the n...

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Strategy For Financial Reform Is Becoming Visible
INDIA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryFor the last decade, financial reforms in India have floundered. The game plan that now seems to be clearly visible comprises of a long term strategy and a two-pronged short term strategy. The long-term strategy is to enact some version of the draft Indian Financial Code, a new l...

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Zooming in on Manufacturing
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryA favorable performance of the South African manufacturing sector is indispensable for achieving robust and sustained domestic economic growth. This is evidenced by the fact that a poor performance of the domestic manufacturing sector largely contributed to a shocking Q1 2013 gro...

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Economy Says, End Taksim Peacefully
TURKEY - Report 11 Jun 2013
Two important data prints were released today: GDP grew by a better-than expected 3% in Q1, y/y, while April current account deficit was a wider than expected $8.2 billion.Both prints are problematic in our view, as they yield signs of a struggling economy on two fronts: a not so healthy growth d...

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Q2 Health is an Illusion
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryAppreciation of the parallel exchange rate, and a temporary fall in inflation, have moderated economic instability. But inflation and FX dynamics were mostly driven by unsustainable price controls, aggressive FX intervention in the blue-chip swap, and monetary contraction, bolste...

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AKP strikes back
TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2013
Yet another fateful day in Turkish history. Arinc promised Erdogan will meet a delegation of Gezi Parki protestors tomorrow. But this morning riot police entered the Taksim Square to remove the banners and to end the occupation.  Clashes throughout the day and across the country a possibility to ...

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States and Municipalities Add to the Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jun 2013
The weak economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy that have raised the risks of dangerous growth of the public debt were responsible for the change in the Brazilian outlook from stable to negative by S&P. In addition to the decline in the primary surplus of the central government, which was...

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Change Course?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Jun 2013
Executive SummaryConcern over inflation has led the Central Bank to signal a more intense monetary tightening cycle is in store, with the yield curve last week indicating the cycle might end with the SELIC rate at 9.25%. The high inflation is being driven by the steep increase in absorption in pr...