GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Today's MNB deposit tender has been the third consecutive occasion that the Bank left the fix interest rate, at which it mops up all the free and willing HUF liquidity of banks for the following week, unchanged at 6.15%. As the forint has been conveniently trading within the EURHUF 375-380 range ...

Inflation is becoming a political nightmare

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

Worldwide, the latest inflation indices have been reflecting a new global problem, based on rising energy and food prices, as the supply side shocks triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine spread across the markets. Yet, Argentina is not only not isolated from this problem, but also, on the ...

Inflation and war drives economic growth outlook lower

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Apr 2022

Although the economy grew at a good pace in January and February, the persistence of inflation is worrying in a context of oil prices above $100 per barrel, and the uncertainty generated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Cumulative January-February GDP growth was 6% y/y, and inflation reached 8.98% in M...

Shanghai lockdown

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Apr 2022

High frequency cinema opening data suggests a flattening out of the impact of Covid on the country, although it’s too early to tell. Meanwhile, the problems with the Shanghai lockdown highlight the central government’s experimentation with focused lockdowns but also raise questions about Beijing’...

Easter break

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Apr 2022

The Philippines will take its annual Lenten break beginning Thursday. We leave our readers with two thoughts on the economy’s short-term outlook. The latest official survey by Pulse Asia conducted in mid-March, which showed Vice President Leni Robredo’s voter share jumping 9ppt to 24%, has invigo...

A windfall?

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2022

We update the outlook we presented to you just four weeks ago. A little more than a month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine and in an environment of tremendous volatility and uncertainty, oil prices have risen sharply, world oil and gas markets are undergoing restructuring, and the e...

The Federal budget surplus rises in March

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Apr 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget surplus reached R614bn and R1.151trln in March and 1Q22. The revenue collection was strong both on the side of oil-and-gas and the non-oil-and-gas taxes. In 1Q22, the government collected 28.7% of total targeted for 2022 revenues (31.2% of ...

Lula had dinner with MDB leaders in Brasília yesterday, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and the Senate Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the ISS bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

Former Senate President Eunício Oliveira made a point of stressing that the dinner does not mean Simone Tebet's candidacy will be boycotted. It is also worth mentioning that the MDB is negotiating an alliance with the PSDB, União Brasil and Cidadania for October. It is unlikely that the third way...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Apr 2022

According to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics, the nation’s economy grew by 4.0% in 2021. The 2021 figure looked reasonably good after the 2.5% contraction in 2020, especially due to the fact that the pandemic started to influence the Kazakh economy several months later than in Russia a...

Kazakhstan macro: looking for opportunities in 2022

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2022

Just for the record: new fiscal 2021 figures has published by MEF. The NFPS deficit in 2021 was revised upwards

PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022 · 1 response

On April 4, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) issued its revision of the Balances of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector for 2021. The net deficit of the NFPS changed from 5.53% of GDP to 6.66% of GDP in 2021 (US$ 3.523 billion to US$ 4.238 billion) or 20.3% larger....

Austrian Chancellor visits Moscow and Kyiv to talk peace

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

On April 11 Karl Nehammer spoke to Putin in person for an hour. His attempt to persuade Putin to end military action failed. Nehammer then flew to Kyiv to meet Zelensky.Austria is an EU but not a NATO member. Therefore, its attempt to broker peace was not rejected outright by Russia despite the E...

Economics: Despite recent consumption and investment growth, the outlook remains weak for the next two years

MEXICO · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The latest private consumption and gross fixed capital formation data showed their main indexes experiencing growth at January in an extension of what has been a recovery trend for almost a year and a half. The rise in GFCF extended to construction as well as to spending on both imported and dome...

Exchange Rate, Fiscal Fundamentals and Fiscal Results

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The strongly rising inflation casts doubt on whether the SELIC rate of 12.75% for an extended period will be sufficient to bring inflation to the target in 2023. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, it can help achieve this goal somewhat. In this report, we analyze what has been happenin...

The Holy Week holiday reduces activities in the legislature, public servants continue to strike, and the União Brasil may form an alliance with other third way parties and launch a single presidential candidate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The opposition had obtained the minimum 27 signatures necessary to create a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) in the Senate to investigate allegations of corruption in the Ministry of Education. However, government negotiations managed to withdraw some signatures to reduce the negative eff...