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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Let’s talk after the summit
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jun 2021

The main story in the politics section is Mr. Erdogan’s visit to Brussels, where he will likely be grilled by EU and NATO leaders, while he finally says hello to old buddy Joe. He is until immense pressure at home at the eve of this historic visit. He and his AKP+MHP alliance are slipping in t...

US search for a base in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

By September 11, 2021, there will be no more US troops in Afghanistan besides Marines at the embassy. That is Joe Biden's vow. Afghan troops will be trained by the US but not in Afghanistan. The United States has also promised not to abandon its Afghan allies as it did in 1989. How is the US to s...

Russia interest rate raised to 5.5%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

On June 11 the Central Bank of Russia hiked the interest rate, as we predicted. The country is grappling with inflation. This has risen faster than CBR foresaw. It was 6% in May 2021: the highest since 2015. CBR said this could ruin the recovery.The RUB has not moved when the interest rate did. C...

​GULF WEEKLY: Strong sukuk demand, Covid up in Oman & Kuwait, Kuwait sees worst GDP contraction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus is surging in Oman and Kuwait and, although cases are falling in Bahrain, deaths are extremely high. * US-Iran talks will move to a sixth round, with growing expectations for a deal but probably not before next...

COVID CPI meets with a microbiologist and the former President of Anvisa today, and next week will be important for the Administrative Reform proposal and privatization of Eletrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2021

Microbiologist Natália Pasternak and former President of Anvisa Dr. Cláudio Maierovitch meet with the COVID CPI today. President Bolsonaro requests that vaccinated individuals be allowed to forego masks. Paulo Guedes extends the emergency aid program. The Special Committee on Administrative Refor...

Biden’s infrastructure plan and the China threat
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Jun 2021

Biden’s new infrastructure plan is a counter-strike against China’s economic growth and investment in technology. As The Wall Street Journal noted in April, “When President Biden unveiled the plan, he mentioned China six times, including this reference: 'That’s what competition between America an...

Private jet industry booming in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2021

Sirius Aero is a private jet charter company that is thriving. The company flies people from Moscow to Courchevel, Milan, Majorca, Malaga and Nice in particular. Tickets are USD 2,000 - 10,000. This is the Shuttle Up Service.The number of private flights is 32% up from before the pandemic. Privat...

South Africa records its second largest current account surplus in the first quarter of 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2021

Today’s current account data release by the South African Reserve Bank shows that during the first quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account recorded its fourth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The latest surplus, which is al...

The federal budget and the current account balances strengthen in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5m21, the federal government spent 41.9% of the annual plan (R21.5 trln). It means that the federal budget expenditures were allocated evenly so far – spending reached R9.0 trln. Federal budget revenues exceeded R9.3 trln (49.7% of the official plan) over the...

STF decides that the Governor of Amazonas does not have to testify in the CPI today, Special Committee on Administrative Reform was installed yesterday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2021

The rapporteur for the Administrative Reform proposal is against increasing the number of vacation days for judges. The report on the privatization of Eletrobras should be submitted next Tuesday. There are three possible edits to the text. If the text is edited, it must go to the House for analy...

Election campaign reached fiscal policies yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

Yesterday, PM Orbán announced that the government is proposing to return one-year's income tax to taxpayers raising children in early 2022, provided that the economy proves to be going well this year. Later in the day, Márton Nagy, formerly MNB vice governor and currently an advisor to the prime ...

RUB rises to highest since August 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

It seems like the Russian Central Bank will raise interest rates out of concern over rapidly rising inflation. Interest rates might rise to 5.5% on June 11. Inflation was 6% in May 2021. RUB was 72 to the USD on June 9. RUB is 87 to the EUR.It looks like the Russian economy has almost recovered f...

Consumer inflation speeds up to 9.5% y/y in May
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

In May inflation sped up to +1.3% m/m or +9.5% y/y from +0.7% m/m or +8.4% y/y in April. Stronger food prices (+1.7% m/m from +1.2% m/m in April) as well as jump in utilities’ tariffs (+3.9% m/m from +0.4% m/m in April) are the main drivers of consumer inflation with foods adding 0.74 ppt (out of...

Reduction of public debt service in USD1,310 m for the period 2022-2027
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 09 Jun 2021

The Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of the public debt service by DOP74,908 m (USD1,310 m) for the period 2022-2027, through a liability management operation in the local market. The operation consisted of swapping bonds with a face value of DOP92,427 m (USD1,617.44 m) and interest ra...

Emergency aid program should be extended for another two to three months and Special Committee on Administrative Reform should be installed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2021

The government is looking into other social programs ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. Senator Rogério’s report on the privatization of Eletrobras should be submitted today. Senator Bezerra was indicted by the Federal Police for allegedly receiving R$ 10 million when he a minister dur...

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