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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A busy week in Congress, several bills and provisional measures should be put to a vote today, and Marcellus Campêlo should testify in the COVID CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jun 2021

The government is planning on replacing the Bolsa Família and emergency aid programs with a new basic income program that should help President Bolsonaro’s re-election campaign. The rapporteur for the provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras should submit his report on the text toda...

Some unnecessary excitement about MNB policy yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Jun 2021

Perhaps the MNB should consider to stop talking publicly for at least a week ahead of critical Monetary Council meetings, when public attention is focused heavily on each and every word they say. That could lessen the risk of potential damage if the market is unable to read various statements com...

Former Soviet countries struggle to go green
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Jun 2021

On June 9 the CEO of Rosneft said that the world needs ''green'' oil from Russia. The semi-state giant opened the Vostok Oil facility in 2021. This will be the Arctic's main oil terminal producing 30 million tons by 2024 and 100 million tons by 2030. Vostok Oil's carbon footrpint will be 75% lowe...

Economics: Credit to the private sector extends its slide
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Recent indicators as of April regarding Mexico’s financial system continue to reflect the effects of low levels of economic growth. This poor performance results from a mistaken implementation of economic policy, the pandemic’s impact on the economy and ineffective economic reactivation programs,...

Inflation challenges the government and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021

The Senate will attempt to vote on the provisional measure that allows for the privatization of Eletrobras. In the House, the rapporteur of Administrative Reform will present his work calendar. Deputies may also vote on the bill that deals with the ICMS on fuel. In the Judiciary, we highlight the...

MNB balance sheet suggests the forint has only limited potential upside left against the euro
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The end-May balance sheet of the MNB was released today. We made a simple calculation to find out how much room is left for further potential forint strengthening against the euro. The result is that at EURHUF 350, the forint is almost as strong as the maximum level it can potentially reach. This...

The Full Adjustment of the Interest Rate: In Search of the Inflation Target
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021

At the next COPOM meeting (June 16), not only will the SELIC rate be increased by 75 basis points, there will also be announcement that the commitment is no longer to a partial adjustment, but rather to the adjustment necessary to bring inflation back to the target. This movement was already anti...

A clearer spot in the region
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jun 2021

After two weeks in office, Guillermo Lasso registered the highest rate of approval since 1979. At 71.2% he was above Rafael Correa, who had 68% in his best days. In addition, two legislators from the Social Christian Party joined the official forces, which currently represent the second largest g...

Victor likely to have a weak mandate
PERU · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Most commentators expected a close result in the June 6th presidential election second-round runoff between Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular and Pedro Castillo of Perú Libre. But few foresaw the razor’s-edge margin that would ultimately mean that the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the Electo...

Turkey Covid Watch - June 14, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Covid cases reached a bottom of about 5K on Sunday and vaccinations are up sharply this week. The circulation of the more contagious and vaccine-resistant Delta strain puts a damper on any jubilation this would otherwise have brought. Please note that we are shifting to a biweekly schedule with o...

Inflationary crosscurrents
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 27 percent month on month in May, an increase close to the 25 percent seen in April and steeper than our forecast lift of 11 percent. While factors we had anticipated worked to tame inflation, others we’d not foreseen kept it strong. As we had anticipated, money supply ...

Provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras should be put to a vote on Tuesday or Thursday, and four testimonies expected to take place in the COVID CPI this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021 · 1 response

The privatization of Eletrobras should be approved before it expires on June 22. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform should have a schedule for the analysis of the proposal by Tuesday. The STF will review the constitutionality of the law that grants the Central Bank autonomy. Demonstra...

Politics: 2021 election results and outlook
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Mexico’s much awaited and bitterly contested June 6 mid-term elections delivered mixed results. At stake in the vote to renew the Chamber of Deputies was the future of the 4T, AMLO’s project to radically transform Mexican political and economic life. Morena and its coalition partners proclaimed t...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jun 2021

The new government was sworn in today, and we expect fiscal policy to be responsible. The fiscal deficit is trending lower on strong tax revenues and lower emergency Covid aid. Trade data reflects strong growth both in exports and imports. We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on strong seasonali...

The CA surplus increases surprisingly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The CA surplus increased in Q121 to 5.85bn USD from 5.5bn in Q420 (sa) and 4.3bn one year ago. The increase of the trade deficit by 0.7bn USD was offset by a similar increase in the service account surplus while the secondary income (transfers) increased by 0.4bn. Many economists had expected a c...

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