GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

There is a divergence in the picture of the economy as seen in data for large firms vs. the data for households. The large firms are faring well. For the first time since 2013, expansion of net sales and operating profit is seen, in real terms, in the aggregate values for non-financial non-oi...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?

ISRAEL · Report · 11 Apr 2022

1. Rates are expected to move higher today; the bond market will react to the BoI policy rate forecast and the Governor’s press conference. 2. The cumulative fiscal deficit declined to 1.4% GDP in March; we expect bond issuance to decline further. 3. The coalition has weakened, maki...

The 47th day of war: the big battle over Donbas "slips"

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

We are living in anticipation of the decisive battle over Donbas. The Russians totally withdrew from the North and the North-East. Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy are returning to peaceful life, if this phrase is applicable in nowadays. At the same time Russians are accumulating forces in Donbas and in the...

The approval of the IMF program brought calm to the foreign exchange markets but accentuated tensions within the government

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

In the last week of January, before the announcement of an understanding between the staff of the IMF and the Ministry of Economy, the foreign exchange rate in the bond swap market (CCL) and the informal ¨blue¨ market fluctuated around 220 pesos per dollar. Now, two weeks after the final approval...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Apr 2022

We expect a rate hike today of 0.15% Due to robust growth and strong labor market, we cannot rule out a rate hike of 0.4% to a level of 0.5% (35% probability). All conditions have been met to commence a tightening cycle: recovery from the pandemic, rapid economic growth, strong labor market, infl...

Armenia and Azerbaijan close to a peace treaty after talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 9 peace talks between the two former Soviet republics took place in Brussels. The EU midwifed the talks. The leaders of both countries met and expressed optimism about the talks. They agreed to establish a joint commission to delineate the border.The talks took 4 hours, which is a good s...

Russia closes offices of human rights organizations

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

On April 8 Moscow said it was shutting the offices of the Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Amnesty International. Both bodies have had operations in Russia since the early 1990s. Thirty organizations have been removed from the registry of international organizations in Russia owing to breaking the la...

Paying in rubles for energy imports from Russia

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2022

PM Orbán has happened to say that Hungary could pay in rubles for its gas imports from Russia if necessary. He sees that as a technical affair, he said.EU Commission head vd Leyen reacted by saying that paying in rubles would clearly breach existing sanctions. So far, Hungary has complied with al...

EU sanctions Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

On April 7 the EU voted to ban Russian coal and to forbid Russian ships to dock in EU ports. The sanctions package include a ban on selling certain high tech goods to Russia. Moreover, many Russian owned yachts have been seized. The assets of several Russian banks have been frozen. The EU has for...

De-facto change in monetary policy stance

INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The monetary policy statement though retained the accommodative stance but the wording was changed to: ...."remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth." There is a possibility that th...

Webinar Replay - Mexico: Economic and political prospects for the second half of AMLO’s term

MEXICO · Report · 08 Apr 2022

Gain insights on the economic and political challenges ahead for Mexico and how the country is likely to navigate them. Visit our calendar page to watch Guillermo Valdés and Mauricio Gonzalez discuss Mexico's weakening macroeconomic conditions, the pressure of high inflation and low growth on the...

President Bolsonaro’s performance in the polls expected to improve, the PT fears Lula’s controversial statements on abortion may cause electoral damage, and the União Brasil announced it will launch a presidential candidacy

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The government still hopes that the improvement in the economic environment can continue and, with that, increase its popularity among the electorate. Minister Paulo Guedes said yesterday that the government can use the excess in tax collection to correct the income tax table for individuals. Aft...

Consumer inflation continues to accelerate, though not in a runaway fashion

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The year-on-year rate of CPI-inflation rose further to 8.5% in March, from 8.3% in February, on a 1% rise of the CPI in March alone.Despite the increase, this may look like a relatively favourable figure, as analysts' median expectation was 8.65% and the MNB predicted something in the 8.5-9% rang...

The key rate cut to 17%

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2022

The CBR cut its key rate to 17% while referring to slowing w-o-w inflation, and the risk of further deterioration of the economic activity pressure on the financial sector as well. The regulator also hinted that further rate cuts are possible but the decisions will be data-dependent. High key rat...

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee trims growth forecast and raises inflation projection

INDIA · Report · 08 Apr 2022

The first bi-monthly meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded today. In contrast to the previous monetary policy announcement, the focus this time has been on managing inflation and withdrawing the excess liquidity through formal instruments. The RBI acknowledged that the di...