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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Firing at Russian bases in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
On April 27 there was firing at a Russian arms depot in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria. Russian troops have been there since 1991 against the wishes of the Moldovan Government. Ukrainian drones flew over the Russian depot there and there were explosions. 20 000 tons of ammunition a...
Russian gas cut off to Bulgaria and Poland
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2022
On April 27 Russia announced that Gazprom has suspended all sales to the two EU countries. That is because they refuse to pay in RUB. The contracts state that the gas will be paid for in EUR. In March 2022 Putin said unfriendly countries had to pay in RUB. He did not at first carry out his threat...
Pandemic statistics update
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Apr 2022
We look at cinema openings nationally, traffic in Shanghai, and political opposition to Covid measures in Shanghai. We see some improvement in the film industry and signs that traffic is slowly building up. We also see that a health issue such as Covid is providing an avenue for widespread commen...
Russian telecoms suffering from sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
Russian mobile phone networks are suffering from their heavy dependence on Western components. Maintenance and upgrades are increasingly problematic. Russia buys parts from Nokia and Ericsson as well as Chinese providers Huawei and ZTE for wireless network hardware and software. Nokia and Ericsso...
Russian civil aviation falling drastically
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
On April 25 Moscow Vnukovo Airport furloughed many staff. A third of airport staff have been told they might be made redundant. Another Moscow airport has already done so. Passenger numbers have fallen dramatically in the last 2 months.Vnukovo Airport's traffic was down 19% Y o Y in April 2022. I...
Kazakhstan Macro: the budget is in surplus in 1Q22 as revenues exceed the plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
The consolidated budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan posted a surplus in 1Q22, as the country’s finance ministry reported. This budget is a sum of the state budget and the National fund net of transfer from the latter to the former (the state budget is an aggregate of the republican and local bu...
US Secretary of State visits Kyiv
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
On April 24 Anthony Blinken and the US Secretary of Defense visited Zelensky. The US renewed its pledge of unstinting support and said that Ukraine can win if given the right weapons. The US said that its goal is to enfeeble Russia that Russia cannot threaten Eastern Europe again. The US said it ...
A few specifics from the MNB press conference
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
A press conference indeed followed the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting of April 26. Governor Matolcsy and vice governor Virág spoke, and there was no room given to questions. Beyond generalities, a few specifics appear to be notable:1. Governor Matolcsy confirmed that the MNB is s...
MNB base rate up by 100 bps, to 5.4% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2022
The Monetary Council raised the base rate by more than we expected, but its action corresponded to the median expectation of private sector analysts. By this move, the interest rate corridor rose by 100 bps as well, to 5.4-8.4%, increasing the upward potential for the 1-week deposit rate, the eff...
The government’s economic measures may be positive for Bolsonaro’s popularity, the House may vote on the Auxílio Brasil MP, and Bolsonaro stated he would not comply with the STF decision if it approves the revision of indigenous lands demarcation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2022
Yesterday, an FSB/BTG Pactual poll showed that the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro dropped from 14% to 9% from March to April. The government has started the early payment of the 13th salary installment for INSS retirees and pensioners. The likelihood that the vote on the Auxílio Brasil provisiona...
Opposition summit:Good news, bad news
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2022
Six opposition leaders constituting the Nation Alliance gathered Sunday night to debate how to mitigate the big-party bias of the amendments to the electoral law, as well as the previously proposed formation of “standing committees” to study the possibility of writing a coalition protocol.I write...
The Projections of the IMF for the World and Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022
The last World Economic Outlook confirmed what was expected, a weaker growth projection (in relation to that of January) for the world economy in 2022. It is increasingly clear that additional deceleration is in store for the United States due to a more intense shift of monetary policy to restric...
Economics: Inflation and depressed growth mean that recent wage hikes pose new hurdles for economy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2022
In a context of high inflation and clear signs of economic weakening, we estimate that collective bargaining wage negotiations in the coming months will be contaminated by deteriorating inflation expectations and represent an additional obstacle over the medium term to slowing the pace at which p...
Politics: Wide-ranging effects of AMLO’s failed attempt to pass electric power sector reform
MEXICO · Report · 25 Apr 2022
It became increasingly obvious in the days leading up to the Easter Sunday vote in the Chamber of Deputies that the administration’s electric power sector reform was headed for defeat as the leaders of all four opposition congressional caucuses, with their 223 deputies, made it clear they would s...
Ukraine seems to be launching missiles into Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2022
On April 25 a fire at a Bryansk civilian oil depot and on oil depot at a military base appear to have been caused by Ukrainian missiles. Russia confirmed the fires but played down the suggestions that they were caused by enemy action. Bryansk is less than 100 km from Ukraine. Is it within range f...