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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A Higher Interest Rate and Economic Stagnation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 15 Mar 2021

During the second wave of COVID contagion, which is working to contract the economy through spontaneous social distancing, the risk premiums have been rising (steepening slope of the yield curve and weakening of the exchange rate), and the Central Bank is poised to raise the interest rate. Added ...

The progress of reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2021

This Monday, the Emergency Amendment will be promulgated. The government will then draft the Provisional Measure for stimulus payments. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that he expects the report on Tax Reform to be presented this week. On Wednesday, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. In the econ...

Fundamentals will continue to support appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Mar 2021

* Both consumer confidence and consumption have rebounded sharply since mid-February on rapid vaccination and the opening-up of the economy. * The combination of the CA surplus and net FDI reached a record level of 10% GDP in 2020; macro fundamentals remain shekel positive. * Residential...

Ukraine to nationalize Motor Sich
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2021

On March 11 it was announced that Kyiv wants to buy the aerospace company. At the moment Chinese companies own most of the shares. Ukraine considers the company vital to national defense. The chief of the Security and Defense Council said that Motor Sich needs to be taken back by Ukraine. Shareho...

Fundamentals will continue to support appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Mar 2021

Strong fundamentals support shekel appreciation In 2020, the CA surplus reached 5% GDP, and net FDI added an additional 4.9%. This is due to Israel’s vibrant hi-tech sector, boosting exports and investments. Some factors will reverse in 21: commodity prices are up (energy esp.), travel abroad wil...

Between Scylla and Charybdis
TURKEY · Report · 14 Mar 2021

Turkey is now advancing into the Third Wave of COVID-19 epidemic, with daily cases soaring above 15K/day. As President Erdogan resists the urgency to reverse “controlled normalization”, the outbreak is very likely to get out of control. We have already covered the destabilizing impact of the epid...

Russian and China plan joint moon station
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

On March 10 Beijing and Moscow announced that they will create a lunar space station together. Russia is exceptionally proud of the Soviet-era space prowess. However, Russian space exploration has fallen behind in recent decades. Putin also sees cooperation with China is vital to containing the W...

Russian weapons sales booming
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

On March 12 Moscow announced that its arms exports are selling well. The Federal Service for Military Technical Cooperation said that in 2020 the country sold USD 50-55 billion of arms.Sales in 2020 were 15% down YoY. This sector was impacted less by the pandemic than any other.

​Covid watch (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

The uptrend in new covid19 cases continued this week with the case count exceeding 4,500 on Friday. New cases rose 46% week-on-week based on 7-day averages with Metro Manila seeing much higher case growth. The overall positivity rate is now over 10% and the reproduction number estimated at 1.2 fr...

Inflation continues to slow
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

Inflation slowed to 16 percent month on month in February, down from 50 percent in January and below our forecast of 34 percent. Driving the slowdown were government austerity and exchange rate stability. In our central forecast scenario, we assume that the government will continue to dampen i...

Russian food exports broke records in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2021

On March 9 RBC published an Agriculture Ministry report on this. It showed that the country exported USD 30.7 billion of comestibles. That is 20% up YoY. That was 79 million tons. The major foodstuffs exported are grain, meat, fish, vegetables and dairy products. In 2020 there was a bumper harves...

South Africa’s current account balance records an annual surplus for the first time in 20 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

The current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank shows that South Africa’s current account recorded another considerable surplus during the fourth quarter of 2020. Still, the surplus narrowed from R294.4 billion in the third quarter to R197.8 billion, making it the second...

Bad loans and the AMCs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Mar 2021

There is a longstanding debate about the size of bad loans in China’s banking system. The shortage of data has made it difficult for external analysts to arrive at a comprehensive number that would clarify the banks’ actual financial position. The level of non-performing loans (NPLs) within...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit hit $78bn, GDP data for UAE & Kuwait, Covid gets political in Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * Saudi Arabia’s deficit more than doubled to $78bn despite above-budget non-oil revenue. * Spending was up by 2% y/y due to Covid, but salaries and capex were cut in line with plans. * Saudi Arabia lifted most Covi...

Russian nickel company pays USD 2 billion in compensation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2021

On March 10 Nornickel paid its fine for causing an environmental cataclysm. The accident in April 2020 impacted the Norilsk Region. The funds were paid to the Federal budget. Norilsk will receive less than 1% of the monies. Environmentalists lambasted the Kremlin for paying only a derisory fracti...

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