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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth
PERU · Report · 18 Jan 2022

The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

The electorate's demands and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2022

On Tuesday, January 18, public servants will mobilize in favor of salary raises. On the same day, the government will start issuing Auxílio Brasil payments, of R$ 400. A new poll on the presidential succession will be published on Thursday, and President Bolsonaro has until Friday to sanction the...

UK sends arms to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

On January 17 the British Defense Secretary announced the shipment of anti-armor defensive weapons and some training personnel. London emphasized that these weapons are short range and do not menace Russia. The number of system sent has not been disclosed. The same day, the UK invited the Russian...

More power supply worries
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Jan 2022

In a commentary last year on domestic inflation concerns,[1] we cited the sufficiency of electric power supply as one of the risks that have macro level implications.[2]Barely two weeks into the new year, we are seeing just how idiosyncratic the risks affecting this complex sector have become. As...

We expect a rate hike on April 11
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jan 2022

1. December’s CPI surprised on the upside as core inflation accelerated to 2.7% y/y. 2. We expect inflation to reach 1.7% this year on the back of wage pressure and higher rental prices, partially offset by shekel appreciation. 3. We expect the BoI to hike on April 11 due to high inflat...

Moldova struggles to pay for gas
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 13 the country paid its gas debt to Gazprom for gas bought in December 2021. Moldova is the second poorest country in Europe. It has trouble paying for gas as world prices are sky high.In October 2021 there was a state of emergency over gas prices. The country started buying gas from E...

Armenia and Turkey negotiate normalization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 14 the former deadly foes met at Moscow. They have agreed to a further round of talks. The date and venue are not yet set. Both have said there are no preconditions. Russia was happy to host talks. Armenia is heavily reliant on Russian largesse. Russia does not want to see a diminution...

Former Ukrainian President flies home despite treason charges
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Petro Poroshenko returned on January 17. The treason charge is because he allegedly facilitated coal deals with pro-Moscow rebels. He says the charge is politically motivated. Hundreds of well wishers greeted him. Poroshenko said that Ukraine must stand up to Russia.Prosecutors are seeking an arr...

​Apparent Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi highlights vulnerabilities to drones
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

Preliminary indications suggest that fires in Abu Dhabi, which killed three people at a fuel depot and disrupted the airport, were caused by drones. The Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. The market impact so far has been relatively muted but could become more significant if ther...

More Nazarbayev relatives being removed from posts confirms his loss of power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2022

On January 15 two sons-in-law of the Leader of the Nation lost their positions. Kairat Sharipbayev was head of QazaqGas. He is married to Darigha Nazarbayeva - the eldest daughter of the Leader of the Nation. Dimash Dosanov was in the KazTranOil. Timur Kulibaev (another son in law) has been remov...

First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

We expect a rate hike on April 11th
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2022

Inflation surprises on the upsideo Inflation in December increased by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for 0.1%), and 2.8% y/y. Core inflation increased by 2.7%.o Inflation surprises were mostly broad-based, with housing rental prices accelerating to 3.3% y/y (from 2.9% last month).o We expect inflati...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC ministers visit China, pipeline consortium bond disappoints, Qatar Q3 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Covid cases rose by two-thirds to new records, although deaths remain low. * Oil rose to $85, close to its highest since 2014, despite a resolution to Libya’s production outage and hints of progress in Iran nuclear talks ...

Inflation remained at a 14-year peak in December, beating forecasts once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2022

Forecasts by private sector analysts (with a median value of 7.1% yoy) and by the MNB (6.9% yoy given in the Q4 inflation report of late December) were defeated again by the actual 7.4% yoy headline rate of CPI-inflation in December, as reported today. This was the same number as in November, whi...

Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

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