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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

Last night, President Rodrigo Duterte, upon the recommendation of health officials, announced that for 30 days starting March 15, Metro Manila will be put under “community quarantine”, a term that he said means a lockdown. The measure was in response to the rapidly rising number of covid-19 infec...

MasterCard and Visa can continue operating with government-owned banks in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Risk to the payment system has been averted. Today, 12 March 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 15c allowing Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue transacting with Banco de Venezuela and Banco ...

The NBU surprises with 100 bps prime rate cut, down to 10%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Interesting decision of the NBU. On March 12th, the NBU Board approved prime rate cut by 100 basis points down to 10%. This move was a surprise since already for several days Ukraine’s ForEx experiences panic attack amid COVID-19 news flow. Falling global markets as well as plunged oil prices pro...

COVID-19: bracing for the worst
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Although only six cases of people infected with COVID-19 have been detected in the country, all imported (tourists or residents who were recently in Europe), and no case of domestic transmission has been recorded, our sources indicate that the authorities are preparing for the worst. Following th...

Deficits return to 2016 levels on oil crash and coronavirus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2020

* ​We see deficits ranging from about 3% of GDP (Qatar) to 13% (Oman) with oil averaging $44. * This incorporates assumptions about policy measures and coronavirus impacts. * The region’s overall deficit could change by about ±3% if the annual average oil price is ±$5. * Oman and Bahrain are t...

Ukraine closing educational institutions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

On March 11 Kyiv announced that schools and colleges will be shut to contain coronavirus. All gatherings of over 200 people are prohibited. The directive will be in effect for 3 weeks. After that the situation will be reviewed. The country has only one reported case of coronavirus thus far.

Corona arrives in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

The first diagnosed case of coronavirus infection was announced about 36 hours ago in Turkey.I’ve waited to write this update, going by the wise words of our Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca that “one case does not make an outbreak”.Since then I’ve been surveying all reliable news sources that ...

Russia helping ex USSR and N Korea with coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

On March 12 Moscow announced that it was sending test kits and other equipment to combat coronavirus to several former Soviet republics and North Korea. Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and North Korea are the recipients. Russia also dispatched equipment to Iran which has been hit very hard. Russia is doin...

Can India use macro policy in responding to the pandemic?
INDIA · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

In many countries, macro policy is responding to the pandemic. In some ways, the situation is reminiscent of the 2008 crisis. It is important to point out one key difference. Most countries started out with a strong fiscal situation, and relatively high policy rates, in 2007/2008. This gave room ...

Presidential candidates picked women as their ticket companions
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

Last night, all presidential candidates completed their ballots for the elections in May and in the three largest parties all vice-presidential nominees are women. About two weeks ago, Gonzalo Castillo, candidate of the PLD, elected the current vice president Margarita Cedeño. The presence of Ced...

PM Orbán, minister Varga pessimistic about Covid-19 impact, see need for new fiscal stimulus
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

Over the past two days, PM Orbán and finance minister Varga made pessimistic statements about the possible impact of the coronavirus disease on the Euro Area and Hungary. Mr. Orbán said the government budgets for 2020-2021 will have to be reworked (for 2021, this can obviously mean amendments to ...

Russian Central Bank supporting RUB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

On March 10 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) began selling foreign currency in a bid to raise the value of the RUB. RUB slumped to a four year low against the USD on March 9. The move had an immediate effect raising the RUB 4%.Russia has a fiscal rule. Oil revenue above USD 42.4 are used to buy for...

The end game for Yes Bank
INDIA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

It was known for a while that Yes Bank had difficulties. There is no institutional arrangement for the resolution of financial firms in India. Each resolution is cobbled together, on the fly, by the Ministry of Finance with support from various financial agencies. However, in the past, when th...

Putin keeps open option to run in 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Mar 2020

On March 10 Russian President Vladimir Putin said he supported a constitutional amendment that would allow his presidential terms already served to be zeroed. This would thus allow him to run in 2024 and serve again as president. The amendment is contingent on approval from the Constitutional Cou...

Inflation lower in February but still remains above expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2020

CPI-inflation for February came out at 4.4% yoy this morning. The not negligible good news is that it indeed fell from 4.7% yoy in January, which was a big negative surprise then. But the bad news is that it did not shrink at the rate expected by the MNB (to 4.2% yoy) or the analyst consensus (4....

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