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A Success Story Threatened
MEXICO - Report 18 Feb 2014
Executive Summary Last Wednesday, Banco de México (Banxico) published its quarterly review of inflation corresponding to the final three months of 2013. In the report, the monetary authority reiterated its opinion that the rise in inflation experienced in January came largely in response to highe...

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Political Insights: Week of February 18
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Feb 2014
Great expectations from the market regarding spending cuts to be announced by the government this week, as well as the fiscal target for 2014. The decision is seen as essential for the government to raise the credibility of its economic policy. The first presidential voting intention poll of the ...

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Russia to buy $2 billion Ukrainian Eurobonds, Siluanov said
UKRAINE - In Brief 17 Feb 2014
Russia will buy $2 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds this week, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stated today. In fact, we treat this news as a double-edged sword. On the one side, it is positive since Russian money will ease tension at the forex and will improve confidence in Ukraine’s sustainabilit...

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Outlook for 2014
INDIA - Report 17 Feb 2014
There was a shock to tradeables inflation owing to the INR depreciation in mid-2013, which has subsided. In recent months, food inflation has also subsided. Put together, this is starting to yield some gains in CPI inflation. RBI is trying to establish an inflation targeting monetary policy frame...

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Slowing Real Retail Sales Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Feb 2014
Growth of real retail sales decelerated substantially in 2013. In the restricted sense, sales grew 4.3%, just over half the figure in 2012 (8.4%), while in the augmented sense (including cars and construction materials), growth was 3.6%, less than half the rate (8.0%) in 2012 (Graph 1). In this r...

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Political Violence: Episode or New Phase?
VENEZUELA - Report 14 Feb 2014
The opposition’s defeat in the December 2013 municipal elections fueled the debate on the path to power in Venezuela among opposition leaders. Some argue that Venezuela can’t endure five more years with a Maduro government while others believe that the next few years should be devoted to building...

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Stubborn Inflation
VENEZUELA - Report 13 Feb 2014
Monthly National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation accelerated in January 2014 to 3.3 percent from 2.2 percent in December 2013. The year-on-year rate closed at 56.2 percent (56.1 percent last year). Inflation usually slows in January reflecting seasonal decline in demand and retail sales. Th...

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Giddyap!
PHILIPPINES - Forecast 13 Feb 2014
Executive Summary The Philippines entered the Year of the Horse on a slower trot.For now, the local mood seems to have sobered up in the face of heightened financial market volatilities and contagion talk set off by fragilities in certain emerging markets.The fear is that a lack of differentiatio...

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FATF decision and the crusade against TUSIAD
TURKEY - In Brief 11 Feb 2014
FATF decision and the crusade against TUSIAD I wanted to start your business day with two “heads-up's”. First, FATF is meeting today in Paris, with Turkey’s compliance to anti-terror financing legislation being part of the agenda. Secondly, Erdogan’s anger against TUSIAD is picking up speed and v...

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Hang on to Your Hope
COLOMBIA - Forecast 11 Feb 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYConservatives were the last ones we expected to jump on the May 2014 reelection bus. They were supposed to abide by Liberal rule, and ride in the back seat. Then everything turned upside down. The conservative political base tapped Martha Lucía Ramírez as its presidential candida...

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Investment, Beyond the Upgrade
MEXICO - Report 11 Feb 2014
Executive Summary Last Wednesday the ratings agency Moody's Investors Service upgraded Mexican sovereign debt from Baa1 to A3. Moody’s also noted its stable outlook on Mexican debt, which the firm said is an indication that it does not foresee any significant changes in its Mexico rating during t...

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From Inquisitorial to Adversarial Justice
MEXICO - Report 11 Feb 2014
Executive Summary One of the weakest links in the Mexican state is its chronic inability to mete out justice in an expeditious, transparent and efficient manner. The entire justice system has lacked the minimal funding and human capital, and it is hamstrung by a more systemic weakness: its depend...

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The Government’s Options in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Feb 2014
Executive Summary Brazil’s current account deficits are large in relation to the capital inflows, putting pressure on the real. Along with this, inflation is high and economic growth has been decelerating. The situation cannot yet be called stagflation, but there is a risk of this in the near ...

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Slowing Growth and Uncertainties Over the Interest Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 10 Feb 2014
The sharp contraction of industrial production in December was a big surprise. The index not only revealed that output fell in the fourth quarter, but also that because of the carry-over to the first quarter of 2014, it will be very hard to achieve a positive variation of the industrial productio...

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Central Bank Policy: Which Way is Forward?
HUNGARY - Report 10 Feb 2014
Executive Summary Since our latest report on 9 January, important new information has surfaced in six areas. This included an eyebrow-raising speech by MNB governor Matolcsy in late January, an official announcement on the third wave of administrative cuts in public utility tariffs, a government ...