Country Insights

Gsp report report thumbnail
Polls Belie Major Political Successes
MEXICO - Report 20 Mar 2015
Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto and his administration have scored some major successes in recent weeks, such as intercepting top crime bosses, indirectly confronting a couple of the country’s most powerful monopolies and uncovering a major case of corruption. But according to the ...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
The writing on the wall
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 20 Mar 2015
President Benigno Aquino has been on the receiving end of a string of negative feedbacks lately, all arising from the botched operation to catch two terrorists in Mindanao last January. [For background story on the Mindanao operation, see Quarterly Report, Year of the Bellwether", 11 February.] F...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Week of March 19
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Mar 2015
Cid Gomes’s dismissal first step toward ministerial reform The dismissal of the Minister of Education, Cid Gomes (PROS-CE), which took place yesterday afternoon, is a consequence of his clashing with Congress. In opting to remove Cid, the Planalto is signaling a willingness to prevent further det...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Economics: What futures may bring... to the peso
MEXICO - Report 19 Mar 2015
Executive Summary The exchange rate has risen consistently since September 2014, climbing to an historical high of 15.57 pesos to the dollar on March 10, which marked an accumulated depreciation of 18.2% since September 2014. In that context, Mexico’s Foreign Exchange Commission, presided over by...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Politics: How State Races Are Shaping Up
MEXICO - Report 19 Mar 2015
Executive Summary As Mexico prepares for its midterm elections to be held June 7, polling data is still scarce when it comes to many of the contests that will be playing out in state and local races. However, there is just enough data available from reliable sources to give us an idea of how thos...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Rough and tumble politics
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 18 Mar 2015
We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the presid...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The Current Account Deficit Shrinks in 2014
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Mar 2015
According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit in the current account narrowed to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2014, from 5.8% in 2013. Likewise, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP shrank by 0.7 of a percentage point betwee...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Datafolha poll
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Mar 2015
Crisis unravels Dilma’s image, and disapproval reaches 62% Nearly three months after the beginning of Dilma’s second term, disapproval of the president reached 62%, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, published today.Only 13% of voters consider the government “great/good”.Since her inaug...

Gsp report forecast thumbnail
Recession Through 2016
VENEZUELA - Forecast 17 Mar 2015
Executive Summary This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns negative (–$14.3 ...

Gsp report report thumbnail
MPC Tries Damage Control
TURKEY - Report 17 Mar 2015
As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account defi...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The Labor Market as Reflected by the Monthly Version of the National Household Survey (PNAD)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Mar 2015
In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Week of March 16
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Mar 2015
The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House wil...

Gsp report report thumbnail
The End of Exuberance
PERU - Report 16 Mar 2015
Executive Summary The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times. Dialogue with the opposition resulted in a...

Gsp report report thumbnail
Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY - Report 15 Mar 2015
Executive SummaryIn this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday. We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader uncertainties regarding...

Gsp in brief thumbnail
Expected rate cut from CBR
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 13 Mar 2015
CBR decided to today to cut its key rate by 100 b.p., from 15% to 14% exactly as we have forecasted last week. In the light of previous remarks by Deputy Governor D. Tulin the cut was expected by the markets and was ‘priced in’. Market consensus was for 100-200 b.p. cut ahead of the meeting. CBR’...