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COVID-19 and Turkey: Take I
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2020 · 1 response

We take a first look at the impact of COVID-19 on Turkey, assuming that the pandemic will not be over by the summer, but that its spread in Turkey will be relatively contained. These may be relatively strong assumptions, but we thought it’s better to shed a dim light on the future of the Turkish ...

Russia severely limiting flights to Europe
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2020

On March 12 Moscow announced that as of March 16 flights to and from European countries would be restricted. The precise number has not been declared. The number of flights to EU countries, Norway and Switzerland will be reduced. However, flights from Moscow to EU capitals will be unaffected. The...

Ukraine's severe corona response
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

On March 13 Ukraine announced that as of March 15 all foreigners will be prohibited from entering the country until further notice. Schools are closed until April 3. Most meetings of over 200 people have been banned. Items for combating coronavirus cannot be exported. In Zhytomyr Region a state o...

Gulf weekly: Oman downgraded and others threatened by oil & COVID crises
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Mar 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi & UAE announced plans to hike output by 3.5m b/d. * Fitch downgraded Oman to BB (negative outlook), as the country looks to ra...

China virus check
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2020

We have assembled basic high frequency data on economic activity in China post-virus. The categories are: 1) Transportation. 2) Industrial data. 3) Employment (key word search). The industrial operating statistics show improvement for the most recent period up to the end of February. The pi...

Municipal elections to be held this Sunday
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

This Sunday municipal elections will be held throughout the country. This is a new call after the suspension of the February 16 elections due to widespread technical failures with the electronic vote affecting 62% of the electorate. 100% of the voting will be done with paper ballots and will proc...

Forecasting in a time of radical uncertainty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2020

Last night, President Rodrigo Duterte, upon the recommendation of health officials, announced that for 30 days starting March 15, Metro Manila will be put under “community quarantine”, a term that he said means a lockdown. The measure was in response to the rapidly rising number of covid-19 infec...

MasterCard and Visa can continue operating with government-owned banks in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Risk to the payment system has been averted. Today, 12 March 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 15c allowing Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue transacting with Banco de Venezuela and Banco ...

The NBU surprises with 100 bps prime rate cut, down to 10%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Interesting decision of the NBU. On March 12th, the NBU Board approved prime rate cut by 100 basis points down to 10%. This move was a surprise since already for several days Ukraine’s ForEx experiences panic attack amid COVID-19 news flow. Falling global markets as well as plunged oil prices pro...

COVID-19: bracing for the worst
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Although only six cases of people infected with COVID-19 have been detected in the country, all imported (tourists or residents who were recently in Europe), and no case of domestic transmission has been recorded, our sources indicate that the authorities are preparing for the worst. Following th...

Deficits return to 2016 levels on oil crash and coronavirus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Mar 2020

* ​We see deficits ranging from about 3% of GDP (Qatar) to 13% (Oman) with oil averaging $44. * This incorporates assumptions about policy measures and coronavirus impacts. * The region’s overall deficit could change by about ±3% if the annual average oil price is ±$5. * Oman and Bahrain are t...

Ukraine closing educational institutions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

On March 11 Kyiv announced that schools and colleges will be shut to contain coronavirus. All gatherings of over 200 people are prohibited. The directive will be in effect for 3 weeks. After that the situation will be reviewed. The country has only one reported case of coronavirus thus far.

Corona arrives in Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

The first diagnosed case of coronavirus infection was announced about 36 hours ago in Turkey.I’ve waited to write this update, going by the wise words of our Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca that “one case does not make an outbreak”.Since then I’ve been surveying all reliable news sources that ...

Russia helping ex USSR and N Korea with coronavirus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

On March 12 Moscow announced that it was sending test kits and other equipment to combat coronavirus to several former Soviet republics and North Korea. Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and North Korea are the recipients. Russia also dispatched equipment to Iran which has been hit very hard. Russia is doin...

Can India use macro policy in responding to the pandemic?
INDIA · In Brief · 11 Mar 2020

In many countries, macro policy is responding to the pandemic. In some ways, the situation is reminiscent of the 2008 crisis. It is important to point out one key difference. Most countries started out with a strong fiscal situation, and relatively high policy rates, in 2007/2008. This gave room ...

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