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Azerbaijan claims 4 troops killed on border
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

On December 13 Baku said that 4 of its soldiers were killed by Armenians. Armenia has not confirmed this. Baku has not provided any corroborating information such as the location of the deaths. Baku and Yerevan have exchanged accusations of breaking the ceasefire. The Armenians said that the Azer...

Q3'20: Worse than expected
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Third quarter data confirm our gloomy forecast for 2020: 23.6% drop in Q3 and 20.4% up to September.Today, the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) presented the results for Q3. They were pessimistic as expected, and more. Real GDP fell by 23.6% compared with Q3 2019, which itself w...

​Russian industry: decent performance in manufacturing, mining is still suppressed by the OPEC+ deal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 2.6% and 3.0% y-o-y in November and in 11M20, which looks slightly better than could be expected earlier. An upward revision of October statistics is one of the reasons. Rosstat revised up October statistics in manufacturing, but at the same tim...

No action from today's Monetary Council, statement seems moderately hawkish
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The Monetary Council has kept interest rates and other policies unchanged at its regular monthly rate-setting meeting today. The statement appears moderately hawkish, saying:- the rundown of Covid and the subsequent economic recovery is full of uncertainties, which requires more caution than usua...

BCV gold remains blocked at BOE
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The appeal over which administration controls the Venezuelan gold held in custody by the Bank of England (BOE) is heading to the U.K.'s highest court and the case may not be heard until at least October or November 2021. Neither party can access the 31 tons of Venezuelan gold held by BOE until th...

IMF − the star of Year 2020
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Dec 2020

Official information for the deficits of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector shows that the Republic has complied with the quantitative goals set by the IMF program for 2020. In fact, the cumulative change in the deficit between January-June and January-September for the Ce...

Politics: Coalition could be a game changer in 2021
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2020

The December 5 announcement by the PAN, PRI and PRD that they hope to jointly field candidates in next year’s elections could be a game changer, but the burgeoning lash-up still faces many hurdles, starting with the pushback each of the organizations is likely to get from many of their own member...

ÁKK released a financing plan for 2021 today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

A few days ago, the Finance Ministry let the world know that the main general government deficit target for 2021 had been raised to 6.5% of GDP from the original 2.9%, which was set in June. However, the deficit would be reduced from the current official forecast of 8-9% of GDP for this year.This...

Swiss sanction Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

On December 12 Berne announced that it was freezing the assets of President Lukashenka, his son Viktar and 13 other senior Belarussian officials. Those on the list are prohibited from entering Switzerland including in transit. Switzerland has traditionally been strictly neutral. It is sea change ...

Christmas comes early for Ukraine with World Bank loan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

On December 12 it was announced that the World Bank is lending Kyiv is USD 300 million. The loan is aimed to help low income people. The economy has been roiled by coronavirus. Up to 23% of people in Ukraine are in poverty. Unemployment has spiked. A loan due to be granted in April 2021 is being ...

Muddling through a fiscal crisis
UKRAINE · Report · 14 Dec 2020

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

The politicization of the vaccine and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Despite the fact that the Congressional recess begins on December 23, this will be the final week of legislative activity this year. On Monday, the House may vote on the bill that deals with state debt and the new currency exchange law, among other proposals. Parliamentarians will also vote on th...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Macro fundamentals continue to support a shekel appreciation; we expect an increase in the CA surplus in Q320. In September-November, both industrial exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in these sectors. Economic indicators point to softer consumption in December, follo...

Economics: New infrastructure announcement falls short again
MEXICO · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Gross fixed capital formation, which had already been receding since the first days of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government, has been one of the variables hardest hit during this year’s economic and health crises. So the recent announcement of a second raft of mostly private-public ...

Steady fiscal performance in November
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2020

The Russian federal budget posted a deficit of R0.815trln in November and R2.512 in 11M20. In November, federal budget spending increased to R2.298 trln (versus R1.969 trln in October) and reached nearly R19.040 trln in 11M20. Note that the amended 2020 federal budget assumes expenditures at 22.5...

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