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Tinkoff shares hit by his extradition proceedings
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2020

On March 6 shares in credit card supplier fell sharply because its owner Oleg Tinkov has been charged with fraud in the United States. Tinkoff is in London fighting extradition. Tinkoff Credit Systems Group (TCS) lost 17% on the London Stock Exchange and 24% in Moscow. Tinkov annouced that he is ...

​Gulf weekly: Russia quits OPEC+, Oman downgraded, coronavirus spreads, rates cut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Russia rejected a proposal to extend and expand the OPEC+ oil cuts, crashing prices. * The coronavirus spread to all Gulf states, an...

Ukrainian Prosecutor-General replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

On March 5 the Ukrainian Parliament voted to dismiss the Prosecutor-General Ruslan Ryaboshapka. President Zelensky only appointed him 7 months ago. Zelensky's part Servant of the People was only fairly loyal on this issue. 179/248 Servant of the People deputies voted for the dismissal. The Opposi...

​Biden’s Gulf policies would differ from Trump, but by less than other candidates
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The consolidation of the Democratic primary around Joe Biden, now almost certain to be the nominee, simplifies the (significant) implications of the elections for the Gulf outlook. Trump is still the favorite, but Biden's policies would offer greater continuity for the Gulf than those of some of ...

Fallout from the coronavirus in the former USSR
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The coronavirus has affected the former USSR countries in a serious way. This report explores the degree of the impact of the virus on each of the Former Soviet Union countries, including on trade and activity.​​

OPEC believed to have decided on cut; Russia unclear on cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

On March 5 it was reported by Bloomberg that OPEC has secretly decided on a 1.5 million bpd production cut. It is uncertain if Russia, which is not an OPEC member, agrees. Since the start of 2020 oil prices are down over 20%. This is because of coronavirus. The price is about USD 50 per barrel. A...

Pushing on a string in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Mar 2020

Will China flood the economy with capital to engineer a rapid rebound from the virus? This seems to be the assumption among investors on and offshore about the Chinese markets. I remain skeptical that a big stimulus will be effective due to the increasing inefficiency of stimulus measures in the ...

Recent difficulties India faces
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

In 2020, the Indian government has been grappling with four challenges:The political conflict associated with the citizenship question,The financial crisis, where Yes Bank has particularly been under stress,The problems of telecom, where Vodafone has particularly been under stress,Covid-19.In thi...

Erdogan & Putin sign ceasefire in Idlib, will it last?
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

After six and a half hours of negotiations, Erdogan and Putin failed to agree on most points of contention concerning Idlib, but preferred to prioritize their strategic alliance. The result is a cease-fire protocol, which calls for division of Idlib into two de-facto zones of control, belonging t...

Great ‘cleaning’: reputable Chief Prosecutor dismissed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

Yesterday, on March 5th, parliament dismissed Ruslan Ryaboshapka, Chief Prosecutor, who was seen as the person capable to break corrupt traditions in law enforcement bodies. Mr. Ryaboshapka was highly appreciated by international observers and local anti-corruption activists. Many named him clean...

The deficit on South Africa’s current account narrows in Q4 2019 and for 2019 as a whole
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed by R120 billion during the fourth quarter of 2019, falling from R188 billion in the third quarter to R68 billion. As a ratio of GDP, the current account deficit fur...

Macro and markets: Russia and global turbulence
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Mar 2020

Risk-off trades dominated the markets last week, affecting almost all financial assets in the EM universe, as well as commodity markets. In response to Covid-19 the Fed cut its rate by 50 bps, and other leading central banks may follow suit, also softening their monetary policy, while governments...

The MNB is still in a tightening mode
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

Just like a week earlier, the MNB left the outstanding stock of FX swaps unchanged at this Monday's tender, accepting exactly the same amount of bids as the weekly amount of maturing swaps. Yet the forint has strengthened to EURHUF 335-337 in recent days, following a few days spent around 340 in ...

New PM in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

On March 4 President Zelensky dismissed Prime Minister Honcharuk. Zelensky appointed Denys Shmygal as prime minister. The Rada (parliament) confirmed the appointment. Shmygal, 45, has no political party. He is a businessman who once worked for the Ministry of Revenues. More effective tax collecti...

Cabinet reloaded: changes on critical points expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Mar 2020

The Honcharuk Cabinet was dismissed yesterday on March 4. What was the real reason behind this dismissal – we can only guess. Honcharuk was weak Premier, apparently, not ready to face the challenges he was expected to deal with. But his dismissal has some other reasons, we believe. Most likely sl...

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