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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian oil sales to US overtake Saudi's
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

On March 24 Bloomberg noted that in 2020 Russian oil shipments to the United States outstripped Saudi sales for the first time.US oil purchases from Russia make a mockery of US concern about the EU buying too much gas from Russia.Russia is now the third biggest oil exporter to the US. Russian oil...

Israel election update: coalition formation looks increasingly complicated
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

With 90% of the votes counted, the balance of mandates has shifted dramatically. The Netanyahu led block currently has only 52 mandates. If Benett (Yamina) and his 7 seats join this coalition, Netanyahu will still be short of the necessary 61 majority. Netanyahu must bring in one of the Arab part...

Telegram gains USD 1 billion. RDIF among investors
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

On March 23 the messaging app announced that it has sold bonds to foreign investors. The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) is among the buyers. Telegram which is based in Dubai is owned by Pavel Durov who also set up VKontakte. Durov says he wants the investment to allow Telegram to expand in...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2021

* Russia’s economy continues to grow, and data shows that 2020 was better than expected. * FixPrice’s IPO in London has been a roaring success. * Ukraine is nationalizing Motor Sich, which will upset China. * Some EU countries are buying Sputnik V. * The Kyrgyz president has been ...

No signs of credit restraint in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Mar 2021

There is widespread talk within Beijing following the leadership meetings about a return to lower credit growth following years of excesses. This is being echoed by the western media. The Financial Times just published a piece saying that Xi Jinping is “curbing the credit fuelled excesses of the ...

Consumption set to rebound
CHINA · Report · 24 Mar 2021

Economic recovery is still going strong. In January-February, industrial output was up 35.1% y/y, and up 16.9% compared to January-February 2019. Annualized growth was 8.1% y/y, higher than all quarterly growth since 2015, and up 1 pps from Q4 2020. Since the Chinese economy was shut down to a la...

Initial election results positive for Netanyahu
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Mar 2021

With over 70% of the votes counted, the right-wing Likud-led block appears to be the winner with 57 seats (out of 120 in the Israeli Parliament). This includes the Likud (32), the ultra-orthodox (19) and the ultra-right Zionist (6) parties. Benett (Yemina) received 7 seats and if he joins this bl...

No strong messages from today's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting ended without any policy change today. No changes can be foreseen on the basis of what the Council said in its statement or at the usual press conference.One timely subject is the current and prospective upswing of the headline inflation...

Ford to make first electric vehicles in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 22 Kommersant reported that the US carmaker will become the first company to produce electric vehicles in Russia. The company will be in partnership with a Russian company called Sollers. The Ford Transit will have an electric version made in Tatarstan from 2022.Sollers anticipated that ...

RUB falls due to row with the US
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Mar 2021

On March 23 the RUB fell 2%. At one point it touched 73.6 to the USD. It fell to 90.6 to the EUR but then climbed. There has been 5% fall in 7 days. Biden's statement that Putin is a killer has spooked the markets. There is a risk of even more US sanctions.Oil prices are down slightly over the pa...

Economics: A brighter 2021 foreign trade outlook but risks remain
MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Institutions and analysts continue to raise their 2021 economic projections for Mexico on the back of expectations of stronger growth globally. The improved Mexican forecasts reflect expectations of how much stronger US industrial activity, which we expect will expand 4.7% this year, and economic...

Politics: Rule of law in further jeopardy
MEXICO · Report · 22 Mar 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Electricity Industry Law (LIE), recently approved by Congress, has been temporarily suspended. The new legislation, backed by Morena and its allies and rejected by the opposition, reverses the previous administration’s energy policies, which were based on a...

Political tension increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021

Dr. Marcelo Queiroga will take office as the new Minister of Health. President Jair Bolsonaro will meet with the heads of the legislative and judiciary branches to discuss pandemic measures. In Congress, we highlight the possible vote on the 2021 Budget. The Central Bank releases the minutes of m...

The Start of Monetary Normalization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021

With an increase of 75 basis points in the SELIC rate and the indication it will (very likely) be followed by another hike of the same magnitude, the Central Bank has started to reduce the excessive monetary stimuli in the economy. We do not disagree with the direction of the movement, but beg to...

Russian macro: The CBR - toward a “neutral”, albeit confusing monetary policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Mar 2021 · 1 response

The Russian Central bank raised its key policy rate by 25 bps last Friday. This move did not look necessary at this stage and for the time being it may be seen as relatively unimportant for the economy. What may be of greater importance is that the CBR clearly said that the key rate may go up fur...

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