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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Q3 GDP: Strong rebound, at a steep cost
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Following a sharp, pandemic-driven drop in the second quarter (9.9%, y/y), GDP surged by a higher than expected 6.7% in the third quarter vs consensus forecast of around 5-5.5%, thanks, chiefly, to the unlocking of the economy in the summer months, and extremely strong loan growth. In working day...

BoI: no surprises here
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

As expected, policy rates remained unchanged today at 0.1%. In the monetary statement, the MPC stressed the uncertainty of future growth, and when Israel will receive the vaccine. Recovery in the labor market will be prolonged. The second closure was less severe than the first, but opening up has...

Policy tweaks help but won’t lead to growth
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

After two years of restrictive and contractionary central bank policies to rein in hyperinflation, the Maduro government seems to be shifting away from that single-minded focus and looking for ways get the economy growing after seven years of recession. It began to loosen bank reserve requirement...

Q&A on the matter of congressional elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2020 · 1 response

After the municipal elections, Congress enters the final weeks of legislative activity before the recess. The report on Tax Reform may be presented in the Joint Congressional Committee. In the Senate, the negotiations around the constitutional amendment on fiscal triggers may advance. The Federal...

Defaults in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Nov 2020

The recent wave of defaults has raised questions about China’s support for the state sector. It is unusual for Beijing to allow state firms to default on their bond or debt obligations, which opens the possibility of a failure of the state sector, and thus a risk to the economy from a systemic co...

No further accommodation expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to a fairly strong recovery in private consumption in November as the economy has opened up gradually. The fiscal deficit is likely to reach 11.0%-11.5% GDP this year, below the official estimate. We do not expect any additional monetary accommodation today from t...

Tough choices
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Guatemala’s situation is mixed, with the economy improving but the political environment worsening. The events of November 21st and 22nd, when popular protests caused major turmoil in the capital city and some locations in the interior, including an assault on the Congress building, require atte...

Officials of the Administration of former President Danilo Medina Sanchez are arrested
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

During the night of Saturday and early Sunday morning, ten former officials and close associates of the Administration of former President Danilo Medina Sanchez were arrested, as a result of the Anti Octopus Operation carried out by the Attorney General of the Republic. Among those arrested are C...

No additional accommodation expected today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

Highlights:Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 1.7% m/m in September and by 20.8% y/y, an important economic driver of the economy. Credit card purchases increased by 8.6% last week and by 15% in November, due to the opening up of store...

Luakshenka: I will retire when new constitution takes effect
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

On November 27 Lukashenka said that once the new constitution is implemented he will retire as president. He said the constitution must limit presidential prerogatives. He has not set a date for the new constitution to come in.Earlier in November Lukashenka said he had no intention of resigning t...

Santa has coal for our socks, Cosmic says
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2020

Once again, without any hope that anyone will listen to it or read it, the politics author starts by explaining the centrality of the raging COVID-19 outbreak for the Turkish economy and politics. If you believe in THE VACCINE, you may skip over these pages… Odds for sanctions by the EU to be ...

MinFin submitted to Verkhovna Rada a revised spending plan 2021 allegedly approved by the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

On November 26th the Cabinet finally submitted to the parliament a revised spending plan 2021 for the second reading. Minister of finance, Sergiy Marchenko claimed this version of spending plan 2021 was allegedly positively evaluated by the IMF. However, from the details, which have been released...

Local elections in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2020

In Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi was re-elected with 62% of the vote. This was well ahead of the challenger who is an ally of Poroshenko. However, Sadovyi only won in the second round. In the first round no one secured over 50% of the vote.On November 24, on Lviv City Council the European Solidarity ...

Polluting factory in Russian North to be closed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2020

A Nornickel factory in Nikel, Murmansk Region will be shut. It emits 80 000 tons of sulfur dioxide as well as other dangerous gases each year. The nickel producing factory is to Norway. The Norwegians have repeatedly complained about it. There is acid rain on the taiga forest on the Kola Peninsul...

Peru: Turning more optimistic on economic performance
PERU · In Brief · 27 Nov 2020

With more information following the swearing-in of President Francisco Sagasti and his first announcements, we have decide to revised up our forecast. We are raising our real GDP growth forecast to -12.4%y/y in 2020 from a previous of -13.9%y/y discussed in our latest GSP report; and to 9.7%y/y f...

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