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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A weaker Real is the “New Normal” of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2020

What is keeping the Real from appreciating? The answer requires looking not only at the nominal exchange rate, but also the real exchange rate. Since the end of 2011, commodities prices have been generally falling, causing losses in the terms of trade, and the current account deficits have been r...

Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth in line with potential. Other indicators (PC and manufacturing) appear softer, but service exports remain robust. The signal from the BoI is that a rate cut is unlikely as long as growth remains steady and the Fed remains on hold, with FX int...

Trade war-driven uncertainty eases
CHINA · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The United States and China in mid-January reached a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over future U.S.-China trade relations. The agreement will have Beijing purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years. In exchange, Washington agreed t...

Exit polls augur a very fragmented new Congress
PERU · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020

Preliminary results to complete (until July 2020) the term of dissolved Congress show the that no party will achieve a plurality. These results could favor President Vizcarra. We do not expect the new Congress to adopt significant reforms, let alone, attempt any amendment to the Constitution.Whil...

Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability, but FX intervention to continue
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jan 2020

Highlights: The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth.This index increased by 0.26% m/m in December, similar to months previous.In Q419 this index increased by 3.2%, in line with long-term growth potential.The MPC sees this as a factor supportive of rate stability, and therefore pref...

Relative calm abroad, confidence crisis at home
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2020

While Chancellor Merkel and President Erdogan disagreed on Libya and East Med drilling rights during her visit to Istanbul, Merkel said Germany is willing to support efforts to build shelters in northern Syria for refugees displaced by fighting in Idlib. Since the Turkish state lender Halkbank...

Der Spiegel claims Fidesz will not be excluded from the EPP in early February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020

The German newspaper claims to have information that the European People's Party's president, Donald Tusk has made clear in his recent telephone conversations that at present, the majority to support the exclusion of Fidesz from the EPP is missing, and so Fidesz will not be expelled from the part...

Mixed messages on ending the Ukraine Conflict
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Jan 2020

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said on January 20 that two new disengagement areas would be created. So far there is only one such disengagement area. There is still firing across the ceasefire line. On January 22 two Ukrainian soldiers were shot one of whom died. The Organization...

Consequences of the awakening
CHILE · Report · 24 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The effects of the protest that began on October 18th on the Chilean economy haven’t been as devastating as we’d feared. November’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) was positive, given the context. The seasonally adjusted non-mining IMACEC increased 0.9% in monthly terms, after falling...

Gulf weekly: Lebanon government, Saudi bond, MBS/Bezos spat
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Lebanon formed a government of technocrats, but it doesn’t yet inspire much confidence. * Saudi issued a $5bn bond. * Allegations have resurface...

Opposition to Putin's constitutional amendments among radicals
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's most prominent newspapers, published an open letter by scores of Russia's more radical opposition activists, decrying Putin's attempts to change the constitution. Some deputies in Moscow City Council have stated they are against the proposed amendments...

North Korean workers still in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jan 2020

On January 23 Moscow acknowledged that North Korean laborers are still in Russia past the UN deadline for these workers being expelled. A UN Security Council Resolution voted for by Russia required all these workers to leave by December 22 2019. Moscow said that these workers were not repatriated...

USD 2.5 bn in global bonds allocated in international capital markets
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

The Government of the Dominican Republic placed bonds in the international capital market today for a total amount equivalent to USD 2.5 bn. USD 1.0 bn were in 10-year bonds and at an interest rate of 4.50%, the lowest achieved by the country for a bond of that term, and USD 1.5 bn million were i...

EURHUF 337.50 - a new historic low for the forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2020

Following an uptick earlier this week, as the MNB rejected all bids at its FX tender on Monday, the forint fell to a new historic low against the euro for a short while in early trade today. We see a good chance that the MNB does not like the forint being this weak at a time when it expects headl...

Trade War deal and the income multiplier
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jan 2020 · 1 response

Despite relatively benign recent economic data, we expect a rising negative impact on China’s economy as a result of the existing tariffs. Exports are likely to continue to decline accordingly due to existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. We anticipate continuing problems for the Chinese economy b...

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