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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic Activity: Anything New?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2020

With the IBOVESPA climbing above 110 thousand points at the end of 2019, a new wave of optimism about faster growth emerged. This has now been boosted by the apparent success of a USA/China trade deal, which has improved the outlook for the international economy. However, the most recent data on ...

Business cycle conditions in Oct-Nov-Dec 2019
INDIA · Report · 20 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The first information about macroeconomic conditions in the Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 quarter is now available. The leading indicator has improved significantly, to a value of 2.64 per cent below the long-term trend. A key indicator that improved greatly was new projects, which may be a slight aberration ...

The BoI prefers FX intervention to lower rates
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jan 2020

Inflation reached 0.6% in 2019, both headline and core. • Housing (rental) prices continue to be the main driver of inflation, up 2.1% y/y (the larger housing item, making up 25% of the basket). • Clearly the 8.3%-shekel appreciation against the basket was the main factor supporting low inflati...

Politics: Burying another successful program
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jan 2020

The abrupt cancellation of the Seguro Popular reminds one of the old maxim regarding the advisability of abstaining from overhauling things that appear to be rendering positive fruits. By trying to conjure it into a free, universal healthcare delivery system, the government has managed to leave a...

Economics: Minimum wage hikes consequences
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jan 2020 · 1 response

One of the first initiatives of the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador upon taking office was to announce a major hike in the federal minimum wage for 2019 (+16.2% in most of the country, and by 100% in the northern border region). Over the past 12 months that decision has ha...

The BoI prefers FX intervention to lower rates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jan 2020

Inflation reached 0.6% in 2019, both headline and core.Housing (rental) prices continue to be the main driver of inflation, up 2.1% y/y (the larger housing item, making up 25% of the basket).Clearly the 8.3%-shekel appreciation against the basket was the main factor supporting low inflation in 20...

It's the "base effect", stupid!
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2020

This is an econ-only Weekly, as our politics author returned from a conference with a severe flu and is out of commission at the moment. We very much apologize for the inconvenience, but we shall, as usual, continue with updates during the week. Industrial production, in sequential terms, has ...

Turbulence for Vodafone Idea next week
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Jan 2020

Vodafone Idea is a large telecom company. For 2018-19, their consolidated revenue was Rs.0.42 trillion and their balance sheet size was Rs.2.48 trillion. Their profit after tax has been negative for the three latest years (2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19). In the latest year, the profit after tax wa...

Russian car sales down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2020

On January 15 statistics released by the Association of European Businesses (AEB) revealed that car sales in Russia fell by 2.3%. This is despite modest economic growth. Only 1.76 million automobiles were sold in a country with over 140 million people. AEB forecast that sales will decline a furth...

Russia's main airport opens new terminal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport has opened terminal C. This is the busiest airport in the country and the 8th busiest in Europe. 50 million people used the airport last year. The target is 80 million. The terminal cost USD 500 million which was 55% over budget. Russia's flag carrier is Aeroflot. Aero...

​Gulf weekly: Oman’s new sultan, Kuwait’s budget and Iran’s woes
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Sultan Haitham succeded in Oman and was well received by markets; we are cautiously optimistic that he will decentralize power and implement overd...

Ukrainian PM offers resignation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

On January 17 the Prime Minister of Ukraine suggested that he step down after a recording of him criticizing the president was leaked. PM Honcharuk has only been en poste since 2019. President Zelenskiy must now decide whether to accept Honcharuk's offer. Billionaire Ihor Kolomoisky openly despis...

A robust economy with political difficulties
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jan 2020

Our new quarterly forecast once again includes a moderate upward revision of GDP growth rates for 2019-2021. Higher growth figures appear well justified on account of the unabated vigor of manufacturing, construction/fixed investment and real wage/consumption growth, despite all sorts of weakness...

Zelenskiy leaves Premier Honcharuk in place
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2020

President Zelenskiy decided to leave Oleksiy Honcharuk in the Prime-Minister's chair for now according to the President Office. Honcharuk submitted a resignation request today following the scandal with the records of his talks. Journalists juggled a variety of versions of who might have recorded...

China’s local debt clean-up squad
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jan 2020

The four original Asset Management Companies (AMCs) established to handle bank non-performing loans have been expanded with the addition of more than 60 local AMCs. They are integral to the disposal of bank NPLs, which are increasing in size. The shift from central to local AMCs means Beijing is ...

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