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Underlying (core) inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 17.8.20July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside (0.2% m/m, vs. exp. 0.1%)Inflation is down 0.6% y/y and core inflation is down 0.37% y/y.Housing rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.4% y/y (from 1.7% last month).The PPI (excluding energy) is down ...

Belarus releases Russian mercenaries in a bid to curry favor with Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020

On August 15 Lukashenka ordered 32 Russian Wagner mercenaries to be set free. The men were arrested in July for allegedly trying to overthrow the president. The opposition suspected it was an electoral stunt and that is what it has proved to be. Ukraine has complained about the release of the Wag...

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2020

On August 14 the EU announced 'smart' sanctions on Belarus. The sanctions will target Lukashenka, some organizations and some top officials. The list has not yet been drawn up. This is to penalize the government for their large scale electoral fraud. All EU members agreed to the sanctions in prin...

Emergency aid program boosts Bolsonaro’s popularity
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2020

The new Datafolha poll, published today, shows that the R$ 600 emergency aid program, paid by the government to informal workers who were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, is boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity. According to the poll, the government’s positive ratings (great/goo...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....

July’s CPI came in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

July’s CPI reached 0.2% m/m (-0.6% y/y, following -1.1% in June), slightly above expectations of 0.1% m/m. There were no real inflation surprises in July. Petrol prices increased by 4.3%. Domestic vacation costs increased seasonally by 5.8%, while apparel prices declined by 5.9%. Housing rental (...

South Africa finally moves to recover looted public funds – at least some of it
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 14 Aug 2020

At the beginning of the month, Eskom – South Africa’s embattled state utility that provides over 90% of the country’s electricity, alongside the state’s Special Investigating Unit (SIU), started legal proceedings against those implicated in corruption that saw the utility losing billions through ...

Inefficient Stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2020

China has switched from SME to infrastructure-led stimulus. This will lead to greater pressure on both bank and private capital, along with a “crowding out” of investment in more profitable parts of the economy. This is also less efficient state-driven investment. However, it has been the capital...

GDP fell by more than expected in Q2, but our latest 2020 forecast is still standing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

According to preliminary data, GDP fell by 13.5% yoy on sda basis in Q2. The MNB expected -7%, the Finance Ministry predicted -9.9%, the analyst consensus was -10.5 and -10.7% in two different polls, and our forecast, published in July, was -12%. A week ago, Eurostat estimated Euro Area Q2 GDP gr...

Putting the worst behind us
CHILE · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Recent economic data support the idea that economic shrinkage bottomed out in May, and there are reasons to believe that the recovery will accelerate in coming months. But room for optimism remains limited. In June, the 12-month variation of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity stayed negati...

Pazuello’s statements at Congressional public hearing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2020

Today, Eduardo Pazuello, interim Minister of Health, participated in a public hearing of the Joint Committee that monitors government spending in combating the pandemic. Pazuello’s attendance was proposed by Senator Esperidião Amin (PP-SC). Pazuello said that information on the Russian COVID-1...

Protests threaten Belarussian president's hold on power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 13 thousands of people mostly wearing white marched around Belarussian cities linking arms. The police are flummoxed about how to deal with these human chains. Several automotive factories have gone on strike against Lukashenka and police brutality. Hundreds of workers have held a vote ...

Russian angel investor arrested in Belarus
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2020

On August 10 a well known IT investor Kirill Golub was arrested in Belarus as part of the roundup of anti-Lukashenka activists. He is a member of Changer International Business Club and the club announced his arrest. Golub is Russian but lives in Latvia. Over 6 000 people have been arrested. The ...

Debate over the spending ceiling divides the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2020

The direction that the government will take after the pandemic is causing an intense internal debate. In the past few weeks, pressure has grown to increase the spending ceiling. Those advocating for this understand that resuming growth must come through an increase in public investment.

Federal budget deficit widened in July amid increased spending
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2020

The Russian federal budget deficit widened in July so that the 7m20 tally reached R1.5 trln as in 1H20 it was slightly over R1.8 trln. Expenditures in July exceeded R2.0 trln while in 1H20 average monthly expenditures stood below R1.7 trln. As is happens regularly, the Finance Ministry releases p...