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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 4
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Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Nov 29
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Chile databank Nov 2
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 30
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 22
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Ecuador databank Nov 28
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Gulf Countries databank Dec 8
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Nov 21
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Mexico databank Nov 20
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Panama databank Oct 11
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Peru databank Nov 9
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Philippines databank Aug 11
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South Africa databank Nov 27
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Turkey databank Dec 6
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Ukraine databank Oct 18
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Uruguay databank Dec 1
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Venezuela databank Dec 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING ARGENTINA WEBINAR: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE MILEI ADMINISTRATIO...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
New risks loom large: HDP mayors and Idlib clashes
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2019
In our Monthly Report, I‘d written that Turkey’s risk topography changes every day like kaleidoscope, but the sum total hardly moves. Two new tail-risks emerged on the horizon about which I wish to warn our readers, before I tell the tales. First, it is no longer inconceivable that Turkish and Sy...
US sanctions in Venezuela and Iran boost Russian oil revenue
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2019
Russia earned an additional USD 905 million from November 2018 to July 2019 due to US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The Russian Urals blend of crude has traded at premium to Brent. The OPEC production cut has also helped Russia. There is not much sour crude on the market. Urals is at its zenit...
The paradox of losing before the elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Aug 2019 · 1 response
The unexpected electoral result of the primaries stunned the government and left the president with a paradoxical dilemma. How can Macri recognize a defeat if the actual elections have not yet taken place? And yet, how can he convincingly help in the upcoming electoral process, if the primaries s...
Economics: What is measured can be improved
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2019
Last week we took up the results of Inegi’s most recent National Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the accompanying analysis by Coneval of how the varying forms of poverty are evolving, including evidence of significant setbacks recorded by some multidimensional poverty indicators that ...
Support for the economic agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2019
The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee will hold several public hearings on Pension Reform. On Friday, August 23, Senator Tasso Jereissati (PSDC-CE) presents a preview of his report. Minister Paulo Guedes discusses the Federative Pact with senators. Congress meets to vote on the LDO and ve...
Politics: The National Guard’s enigmatic rollout
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2019
It comes as no surprise that security remains the most pressing problem on citizens’ minds today as 2019 is well on its way toward surpassing 2018 as the year with the highest homicide rate at least since 1989. The problem is highlighted by a resurgence of large-scale gangland massacres, especial...
Russia keen to avoid a nuclear arms race
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2019
On August 18 the Russian Minister Defense announced his country's intention to avert a nuclear arms race. The United States repudiated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty earlier in August 2019. The US alleges that Russia possesses a type of nuclear arms that are prohibited under the ter...
Deterioration of the external scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2019
The indications have increased that the projection for growth of 0.8% in 2019 is optimistic. One of the reasons is the worse external situation. The trade tensions between China and the United States have created a climate of uncertainty harmful to global trade and investment; Germany’s GDP rece...
Hong Kong is distracting us from the growth and credit data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2019
Special points to highlight in this issue: * While nothing can be ruled out in such a politically complicated environment, the cost of a direct intervention by forces loyal to Beijing into Hong Kong is very high, making it unlikely. An intervention would cause a sharp fall in Chinese exports ...
Underlying growth remains steady in Q2
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Aug 2019
Headline Q2 2019 GDP growth reached 1.0% saar following 4.7% in Q1 2019. * Growth excluding import taxes reached 3.1%, following 3.2% in Q1 2019. This is more reflective of real activity, due to the higher taxes on new vehicles on April 1. * Exports (excluding diamonds and start-ups...
Gulf weekly: Aramco call and regional tensions disturb Eid holidays
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2019
Welcome to our first weekly economic and political update for the Gulf. Last week was quiet on the domestic economic front, given the Eid al-Adha holidays, which meant that government departments were closed all week and local markets were also closed for most of the week. However, there were sti...
Under pressure
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2019 · 1 response
Turkey’s political risks shift quickly, but the sum-total never declines. Erdogan administration survived the summer without a disaster by swapping one threat for another. Alas, it wasted very precious time on structural reform and fiscal austerity, dithering on how to end AKP’s decline in popula...
No change in the sovereign credit rating from Fitch and S&P on August 16
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Aug 2019
Both Fitch Ratings and S&P had a revision date for their BBB/Stable sovereign credit ratings for Hungary on August 16. However, both agencies refrained from changing the ratings on this occasion. S&P did not even pick up the issue, whereas Fitch confirmed its BBB/Stable, saying that Hungary deser...
Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Aug 2019
After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...
The dire fiscal problem of the states
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Aug 2019
The pension reform has raised the minimum retirement age for all categories of employees, however kept privileges for police personnel (including state police forces) and teachers. In this Report we show that many state governments have exceeded the limit of 60% of Net Current Revenue (NCR) for p...