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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Vaccine impact on the Gulf's economy and markets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Nov 2020

The renewed hope for effective vaccines is a strong boost for the region, including through higher oil prices and increased tourism, and the Gulf should be at the forefront in rolling out vaccines. Bonds will likely continue rallying but volatility will set in after the initial surge, when doubts...

Economics: Energy policy pressured on all fronts
MEXICO · Report · 09 Nov 2020

Pemex presented its results for the third quarter of 2020 on October 28. In essence, they reveal a deepening of the company’s extended operational and financial decline. Its gas and oil output continued to fall, most of the oil fields it has prioritized for development have significantly underper...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% of GDP this year
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Nov 2020

The fiscal deficit in October reached 10.1% of GDP (LTM) and is expected to increase to 12% by end-year; pressure for higher yields will continue. Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery as the second lockdown is being lifted slowly. Domestic consumption is being supported by the limited ...

Partial Covid-lockdown has been just announced
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2020

Earlier this morning, PM Orbán has announced a substantial tightening of current Covid restrictions, in response to the rapid spreading of the virus and the growing pressure on the domestic health care sector. The new regime, which is to start at tomorrow at midnight and remain in place for 30 da...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% GDP this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past three weeks (through 3.11) as the economy has opened up, but this data is unfortunately not seasonally adjusted. Data from the CBS (sa) reveal that credit car...

At the proverbial fork, at last?
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2020 · 1 response

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE TO OUR READERS: As we were ready to send this report out to NYC for distribution, Minister Berat Albayrak is claimed to have resigned on account of health problems through an Instagram message. News flow is extremely erratic at the moment, and we are currently fact checking, b...

Azerbaijanis claim major victory over Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2020

On November 8 Azerbaijan boasted that it has retaken a town that it has not held since 1991. It is in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Armenians call the town Shushi. Armenia says there is a battle ongoing on the town but that the Azerbaijanis have not taken it. Armenia admits that at le...

Shooting the messenger, once again: some thoughts
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2020

President Erdogan removed the CBRT Governor Murat Uysal today, replacing him with former Finance Minister Naci Agbal (2015-18), who has been heading the Budget and Strategy Office at the Presidency.There are basically two theories regarding what might have triggered the President’s decision. The ...

EU sanctions on Lukashenka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2020

On November 5 the EU imposed sanctions on the President of Belarus and his eldest son Viktar as well as 13 senior officials in Belarus. Viktat Lukashenka is the national security adviser. The reason given was for violence and electoral fraud. The people on the list have had their assets frozen an...

New Ukraine peace plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2020

On November 5 the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) produced a new peace proposal. The aim is to stage local elections in Donbass and Luhansk in March 2021. There are 5 steps in the plan: the withdrawal of foreign fighters, repealing the law offering Russian c...

South Africa’s structural vulnerabilities worsen as the Covid-19 pandemic takes a toll on the country’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

Summary and Assumptions • Employment: 2.2 million individuals lost their jobs during the second quarter of 2020 amid strict economic lockdowns to slow the progress of Covid-19 infections. Surveys show improvement in employment prospects in H2 2020 from Q2 2020, but also indicate that overall, th...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco results, Bahrain budget, OPEC+ mulls deeper cuts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Nov 2020 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * A divided US government could benefit the region due to lower yields and a weaker dollar. * A President Biden, even without the Senate, will shift policy on Iran and Saud...

Fighting heats up between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2020

On November 6 the conflict returned to intensity. The Azerbaijanis shelled Stepankert which is the main city of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Armenians reported 3 civilian deaths. The Azerbaijanis claimed that Armenia had shelled civilians in the town of Tatar. The Azerbaijanis, with ...

A robust recovery
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

The stock market, FDI and foreign reserves have all returned to pre-pandemic levels, while the fiscal budget deficit has expanded further. Fiscal revenue fell -6.4% y/y in Q3, and expenditure was down -1.9% y/y. Despite the global pandemic, and the still ongoing U.S.-China trade war, exports a...

Russian economy slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2020

On November 5 the IHS Markit report revealed a large drop in the purchasing managers' index (PMI). The PMI for services fell from 53.7 to 46.9 in October 2020. That is the steepest fall since May 2020. The PMI is highly respected as an economic weathervane. A PMI under 50 means contraction. An un...

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