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Russia alleges that the US cut off phone lines at NYC Consulate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2021

On January 20 Moscow made the accusation against the United States. It is possible that this is an American riposte against a cyberattack on the US that Washington says was perpetrated by Moscow. Thirty phone lines were cut for over a day.The incident is a diplomatic spat on the day that Biden as...

​BAHRAIN: Fiscals look weak ahead of bond issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Jan 2021

Bahrain is looking to issue around $2bn in 7-30 year bonds, its third issuance in less than a year. This is to refinance a bond maturing next week, given a paucity of FX reserves, and partly finance the large and structural deficit. The data from the bond prospectus on the 2020 fiscal outturn loo...

The Russian ruble: settling in the comfort zone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Jan 2021

During the pandemic-hit 2020, the Russian economy demonstrated that its ability to absorb external shocks is rather strong, as its GDP contraction was moderate, while in the past decade it demonstrated that it lacks strong growth drivers as the average annual economic growth was quite unimpressiv...

Turkey and Azerbaijan agree on free trade
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 19 Ankara ratified a trade deal with Azerbaijan. Bilateral trade in 2020 was worth USD 2 billion. Turkey exported 85% of that, and Azerbaijan 15%. Turkey's main exports to Azerbaijan are building materials, technical appliances and vehicles. The deal was signed 11 months ago.

Russian icebreaker sails the Northern Sea Route for the first time in January
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 16 a ship completed a journey that was thought impossible at this time of year. Global warming has some upside for Russia. The LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie sailed from the Chukchi Sea to the Bering Strait.Moscow trumpeted the achievement. The Northern Sea Route will probably be na...

US sanctions Russian ship laying Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

On January 19 the US sanctioned the ship Fortuna. Fortuna is owned by KVT RUS. Germany has expressed its disappointment. Nord Stream 2 will carry LNG from Russia to Germany. This is crucial for German energy policy. The USD 11 billion pipeline is 95% complete.There are asset freezes and visa rest...

The current account widens in 4Q20 as exports grow
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2021

The Central bank released its first estimate of the 2020 balance of payments. The current account was in surplus at $32.5bn, and the figure is close to what GKEM Analytica expected (around $35bn or 2.4% of GDP). Meanwhile, in 2019 the current account surplus was twice as wide – $64.8 bn.The trade...

Elections and second infection wave are key risks to outlook
PERU · Forecast · 19 Jan 2021

The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones last week approved 18 out of 23 registered political parties that had submitted candidate slates for the April 11th presidential and congressional elections. The number of participants may change, either because some of the rejected parties successfully appeal th...

Economics: 2021 Economic prospects and hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2021

It will take a lot more than a successful Covid-19 vaccination drive to get the Mexican economy back on a firm recovery path, and an effective inoculation campaign is by no means certain at this point. Obviously the 2021 outlook will be determined by many moving parts, ranging from the strength o...

While the Government Blunders, Monetary Policy is Doing its Part, but Has Reached its Limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2021

In our opinion, at its meeting this week the COPOM will maintain the SELIC rate at 2%, but will exclude the commitment to keep it at that level for an extended period (forward guidance). Since in real terms, the basic interest rate is lower than the neutral rate, monetary policy will continue act...

Politics: 4T Agenda, past, present and Future
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2021

President López Obrador made a public commitment last September to pass by the end of 2020 all of the essential constitutional reforms and legislative bills comprising the basic structure of what he has long promised will be the fourth historical transformation of Mexico. But although he has tak...

The government against the ropes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2021

Expectations surround the beginning of vaccinations against Covid-19 this week. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President of the United States. This week's Talking Points * The governme...

Car sales in Russia down 9%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Association of European Businesses (AEB) published data on car sales in Russia in 2020. Russians bought 1.6 million cars in 2020 as opposed to 1.76 million the previous year. The decline is less marked than in most countries. Owning a car is still beyond the reach of the working...

To boost 2020’s GDP, Beijing sharply increased all the things it has been trying to rein in
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Jan 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to the triumphalist reading of the press, China’s 2020 GDP growth data were very problematic. While we all focus on the headline growth number, it is important to recognize that the Chinese economy in almost every important structural way has...

Russia arrests Navalny on his return
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 17 Alexei Navalny flew back to Russia after months recovering in Germany. As the government warned him he would be, he was arrested within minutes of landing. The reason for his arrest was for parole violations. He has been in and out of jail several times already. Hundreds of well-wis...

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