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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The fiscal situation − implications for the future
INDIA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

Some measures of the fiscal situation for the first half of 2020-21 are now visible. Gross tax revenues of the union government were down by 21.6%, spending by the union government was flat, and the gap was made up using an increase in borrowing. This has induced daunting levels of borrowing per ...

How to think about China’s GDP growth in 2021
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Nov 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Analysts are beginning to project a very strong recovery for Chinese growth next year based on their models for consumption growth. These were the same models that predicted earlier this year that 2020 GDP growth rates would be close to zero or substa...

Russia building high speed internet in the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

On November 17 the government announced that high speed internet is being built to assist ports as well as hydrocarbon companies in the far north. Trans Arctic underwater fiber optic cable will go from Murmansk to Vladivostok. The objective is to set up a digital infrastructure to facilitate comm...

Dominican Government sent to Congress the addendum of 2021 Public Budget Bill and maintains the fiscal deficit target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

At the beginning of the week, the Dominican government sent to the National Congress the addendum to the Public Sector Budget Bill for 2021, in which it formally withdraws the proposal to increase transitory taxes to be applied during 2021. Instead, the DOP25 .9 b that the Government was planning...

Encouraging move, but may not suffice
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2020 · 2 responses

Broadly in line with the consensus forecast, including ours, the MPC/CBRT delivered a 475 bps hike of the policy rate (one-week repo) today, raising it to 15% (simple). Parenthetically, the O/N and LLW lending rates now stand at 16.5%, and 19.5%, respectively, by construction (see chart).

Biden and China flows
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Nov 2020

Biden’s presidency is being well received in China. However, foreign investors continued to invest in the country even during the Trump Administration. We look briefly at the domestic response to the Biden election and also at the flows data. Our thesis is that capital moving out into USD and oth...

​A surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

The Monetary Board made a surprise interest rate cut today, reducing key policy rates by 25bp which brought the overnight RRP rate to 2%. Judging by the officials’ statements during the press conference, the rate cut appears to be aimed at counterbalancing the impact on market sentiments of sever...

Political risks beat fiscal threats
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Nov 2020

We maintain our view that the political risks coming from the presidential election and the composition of the National Assembly will dominate next year’s performance because they will determine the fate of fiscal and domestic economic developments. The political arena is not fully decided so ...

Inflation is up in the aftermath of the weakening of the ruble amid year-end budgetary spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that during the seven days ending on November 16, the w-o-w inflation remained at 0.2% and was the same as from November 3 to 9. Inflationary pressure increased in November and it cannot be ruled out that monthly inflation could reach 0.7-0.8% implying that inflation y-o-y could ...

Opportunities for Venezuela in the Biden administration
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2020

The Trump administration's sanctions and maximum pressure policy in 2017-2020 failed to remove Maduro from power. The upcoming change in administration is an opportunity to recalibrate the role of the United States in the Venezuelan crisis at a time when international support for Guaidó and the o...

Ozon asking USD 5 billion in share sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

Ozon is Russia's second biggest online retail company. Its new valuation is one of the most keenly awaited on the Moscow Bourse.Ozon said its price shares in the IPO will be USD 22.5 to 27.5 That is high by analysts' estimates. The IPO is planned to be on the Nasdaq.Ozon could make USD 1 billion ...

Armenia given more time to withdraw
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

On November 15 Azerbaijan agreed to give Armenia longer to pull out of the territory that is being handed back to Azerbaijan. Kalbacar is a district that is being returned to Azerbaijan. Armenians there are mostly considered illegal immigrants by Azerbaijan. Russia intervened to request this exte...

Industrial growth - no surprises in October, while the 3Q20 GDP was above expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 5.9% and 3.1% y-o-y in October and 10m20, while September statistics were was revised up – both in the case of mining and manufacturing. Overall, industrial statistics looked in October somewhat worse than in September. At the same time, accordi...

Francisco Sagasti to swear-in as new president
PERU · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Last night and after a tense weekend, Congress decided to elect Francisco Sagasti from the Purple Party as its new head and Ms. Mirtha Vásquez, from the leftist Frente Amplio Party as the vice-president. With former president Manuel Merino resigning as a result of the street protests, Mr. Sagasti...

Difficulties in a small private bank
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

1. India has experienced a financial crisis from about 2012 onwards.2. At present, there is no resolution framework for financial firms. Hence, when balance-sheet based lenders (either investment banks or banks) get into trouble, there is no playbook for their resolution. The various claimants on...

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