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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Feb 7
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Brazil Economics databank Jan 16
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Central America databank Jan 28
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Chile databank Dec 3
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Feb 6
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Feb 7
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Hungary databank Jan 24
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India databank Jan 24
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Mexico databank Jan 23
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Jan 31
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Philippines databank Feb 7
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Russia Economics databank Jan 15
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South Africa databank Feb 4
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - NORTH AMERICA TRADE WAR: IMPLICATIONS FOR MEXICO...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Russian Ruble tumbles as Germany says Navalny was poisoned
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020
On September 2 German doctors announced that they are certain that Russian anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent called novichok. Whether the accusation is true or not the impact on the RUB has been dramatic. The RUB saw its most abrupt fall in 6 months. The RU...
The employment picture
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020
The Philippine Statistics Authority released this morning its labor force survey for the third quarter. Overall, the numbers paint an improving employment picture in 3Q following the strict lockdown in 2Q. However, the 10% unemployment is at its highest since 2004 and 17% underemployment since 20...
Inflation remained elevated in August
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2020
Consumer prices rose by 0.86%, m/m, in August, leaving the 12-month rate unchanged at 11.8% from July, broadly as expected. The twelve-month domestic-PPI inflation rose markedly however, to 11.5% from 8.3% in July, attesting to the cost-push, effects stemming from recent lira weakness (Graphs 1-2).
The forint's weak trend continued on two events yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Sep 2020
The forint's weak trend, which started with the Finance Ministry's sharp upward revision of this year's fiscal deficit forecast and then continued due to the MNB effectively tolerating and even actively assisting fiscal loosening, went further yesterday, EURHUF moving to the upper half of the 355...
Bolsonaro’s popularity reaches 39%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2020
The Exame/Ideia Big Data poll, conducted between August 24 and 31, shows that Jair Bolsonaro’s positive ratings (great/good) have reached 39%. The negative ratings (bad/very bad), on the other hand, accounted for 39%, and the regular rating adds up to 20%. According to Big Data, the poll reflects...
Belarus arrests student protesters as Lukashenka tries to consolidate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020
On September 1 police arrested almost 100 students demonstrating against the president. The protesters called the police fascist. It was the first day of the academic year. Hundreds more student protesters were not arrested. Protests have been ongoing since the disputed August 9 presidential elec...
Walking a tightrope
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 02 Sep 2020
When we flagged a looming recession back in April and projected a deep 7% GDP contraction in May, the most pessimistic at the time, we had expected that after one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, the economy would slowly transition by year-end into a “new normal.” Although the govern...
Facebook accuses Russia of meddling in US election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020
On September 1 Facebook said that Russians are trying to sway the US presidential election. The FBI has been investigating. 13 Facebook accounts and 2 pages were set up by people claiming to be journalists. The accounts were aimed at left wingers. They have been taken down by Facebook for breakin...
India withdraws participation in Russian military drills
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2020
On August 31 New Delhi announced that its troops will not take part in the KavKaz 2020 exercises in Russia. The drills are due to take place in September 2020. India says it needs its soldiers at home because of the threat from China. China has been massing troops on its frontier with India. In J...
US warns Ukraine against Chinese investment
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020
On August 29 the US Government announced that the Secretary of State spoke to President Zelensky and tried to dissuade him from allowing China to buy a Ukrainian engine manufacturer. Mike Pompeo claims that Chinese influence in the country is undesirable. China seeks to buy Motor Sich. The US has...
Russian economic forecast better than expected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020
On August 31 it was reported that the government anticipates that coronavirus will inflict less harm on the economy than previously envisaged. The Ministry of Economic Development said that the GDP will be 3.9% down in 2020. Originally this fall was forecast to be 5%. Investment is estimated to f...
Gazprom profits down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2020
On August 31 Gazprom published worrying figures. The gas giant showed that its profit is 25 times lower in Q1 and Q2 2020 than it was in Y o Y. Its profit was only USD 447 million. Its turnover is down by a third. Much of the turnover covers the cost of doing business and maintaining its infrastr...
The partial lockdown of the people and the economy in July and August reduced our projections for 2020
PANAMA · Report · 01 Sep 2020
As the opening of the economy did not occur as anticipated, the outlook for economic activity, employment, tax revenue, etc., had to be revised lower this month, even assuming that a new normal − if contagion numbers improve − might take place in mid-to-late September. Our projections for 2020 ...
China virus check – week ending August 31, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Sep 2020
The news of the week is marked by one surprising change: cinema box office receipts jumped substantially above 2019 levels. This occurred despite a 50 percent limit on theater attendance. The increase was most due to the launch of several new and highly popular films, including some that had been...
Political scenario slightly clearer
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 Aug 2020
We expected a large dispersion in the political scenario, and that is what we got with 20 political parties registering their candidates for president and vice-president. Our first feeling is that the group representing Rafael Correa - regardless of whether Correa is enabled as a candidate or not...