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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

What impact the coronavirus?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Wuhan coronavirus will have a significant impact on the underlying growth rate of the Chinese economy, but this will not show up as lower GDP growth. It will show up as faster credit growth. • The ultimate impact of the coronavirus is likely to b...

QATAR: Change in prime minister but not in policy
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

The news today that Qatar’s Emir had replaced the prime minister came as a surprise, as did the selected replacement, Sheikh Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdelaziz al-Thani. There was no indication that a change was coming and it seemed to catch many people in Doha off guard. To the best we can tell so...

Guatemala: New broom in town
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jan 2020

Guatemala. President Alejandro Giammattei´s January 14th inauguration speech contained a strong call for action against violence and corruption. He labeled the “maras” and gangs “terrorist groups,” saying the time had come to end the violence, a major factor affecting investment. He also argued ...

Russian industry: Looking beyond the headline numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Jan 2020

Rosstat reported recently that industrial output in Russia increased 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% y-o-y in December, therefore pointing to deceleration given that industry expanded by 2.9% in 2018. The growth in the mining segment of Russian industry decelerated in 2019 but remained quite strong – it gr...

The Monetary Council did or said nothing today, the forint appears largely free to weaken further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

Following today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council made no announcement of any policy decision. Especially not one which could be understood as an attempt to stop or reverse the forint's ongoing weakening trend (down 2% vis-a-vis the euro since last month's similar meeti...

Mystery purchase of Russian sovereign debt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

On January 23 it was reported that an unidentified buyer purchased USD 9 billion of Russian sovereign debt. Almost all bonds due to mature in 2025 were bought by an unnamed buyer. It is believed that the buyer is a Russian company. The purchase did not change the value of the RUB.

Uzbek President says he will co-operate with the EAEU
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2020

On January 24 President Mirziyoyev announced that Uzbekistan would work with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). His reasons were that this would mean lower prices and more markets. Up to 80% of Uzbek trade is either with the EAEU or passes through it. He also wished to improve the lot of Uzbek w...

The government's legislative priorities and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2020 · 1 response

This is the last week of the recess for the National Congress and the Superior Courts. President Jair Bolsonaro returns to Brazil from his trip to India on Tuesday, January 28. The National Treasury and Central Bank release the consolidated public account results for 2019. On Friday, January 31, ...

Economics: An improvised threat to public finance
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The government’s decision to eliminate from the first day of 2020 the Seguro Popular program and establish a centralizing National Health Institute for Wellbeing (Insabi) is being billed as an initial leap forward in the government’s quest to provide greatly expanded public health coverage. But t...

Escalating row between Russia and Japan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2020

On January 27 Russia expelled an unnamed Japanese journalist accusing him of espionage. Surprisingly this man was arrested in 2019 but is only being expelled now.On January 25 Japan arrested a Japanese SoftBank employee whom they suspect passed trade secrets to the Russians. SoftBank is a telecom...

The MNB moderately tightened liquidity again today, with little impact on EURHUF
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2020

At today's tender, the MNB tightened HUF liquidity further, apparently with a view to halting the forint's most recent weakening against the euro. As it turned out, in fact a total of HUF 109bn swaps are maturing this week (on Wednesday), and the Bank sold only HUF 59bn of new swaps, reducing the...

Politics: Turning back the clock on reform
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2020 · 1 response

The extensive package of presumed constitutional and legislative reform proposals that began circulating in social media last Tuesday, if it is in fact from the Office of the Attorney General of Mexico (FGR) as presumed, threatens to bring about a major reversal of more than a decade of progress ...

A weaker Real is the “New Normal” of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2020

What is keeping the Real from appreciating? The answer requires looking not only at the nominal exchange rate, but also the real exchange rate. Since the end of 2011, commodities prices have been generally falling, causing losses in the terms of trade, and the current account deficits have been r...

Growth remains steady, supportive of rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The Composite Index of the BoI points to steady growth in line with potential. Other indicators (PC and manufacturing) appear softer, but service exports remain robust. The signal from the BoI is that a rate cut is unlikely as long as growth remains steady and the Fed remains on hold, with FX int...

Trade war-driven uncertainty eases
CHINA · Report · 27 Jan 2020

The United States and China in mid-January reached a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over future U.S.-China trade relations. The agreement will have Beijing purchase an additional $200 billion of U.S. goods and services over the next two years. In exchange, Washington agreed t...

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