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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Taking stock after an eventful week
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2020 · 1 response

President Erdogan should be given credit for staging a F-1 driver quality U-turn on the spot. Yet, the man himself has not changed and what we are witnessing is a tactical retreat to “fight another day”. That being said, he is likely to stay in his good behavior for the next three months. Afterwa...

Armenian opposition accused of coup plot
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

On November 14 the leader of the Homeland Party was arrested on suspicion of plotting to assassinate the prime minister. Artur Vanetsian excoriated Pashinyan over losing the war against Azerbaijan. Vanetsian was once head of the National Security Service (NSS) which is the country's equivalent of...

Ukraine lockdown at weekends
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

On November 12 the government announced a lockdown from November 14-30 - at weekends only. The aim was to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The lockdown closes all businesses except grocery stores, drug stores and hospitals during weekends until the end of November.President Zelensky is being t...

Luhansk crossing points
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 10 Ukraine said that it wants to open two more frontline transit points in the Luhansk Region. The Russian side is not allowing anyone through.Efforts to establish new crossing points failed in the past. People in Luhansk have only one foot crossing point. Stanitsa Luhanska is that pl...

New head of Russian anti-monopoly service
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 12 the head of the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAS) was moved to be assistant to the prime minister. Artemyev had been en poste since its foundation in 2004. The new head of the FAS is Maxim Shaskolky who was the deputy governor of St Petersburg.The FAS's task was to create real co...

Mostly good news, but not in every respect
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

Today's announcement of +11.3% qoq, -4.7% yoy sda real GDP growth for Q3 is certainly good news. Previously, GDP fell by a cumulative 15% qoq in H1, so quite a big part of that setback has been reversed. The average of analyst expectations for Q3 was -5.2% yoy, and honestly, we were on the pessim...

​GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s PM dies, oil caught between vaccine & lockdowns, Saudi on negative outlook
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on vaccine news before concerns about current lockdowns reasserted themselves. * Saudi Arabia took a day longer than the other Gulf States to congratulate Bide...

Russian coronavirus cases at a record
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 13 the number of new coronavirus cases in one day in Russia reached 22 000. Bars and nightclubs now have to stop allowing people in at 11 pm.Russia has the fifth highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. The daily death toll is 411 which is low in comparison to the caseload.Mo...

Calvey free from house arrest
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 12 Michael Calvey's house arrest was ended by the Russian Supreme Court. The American investor was arrested 18 months ago. He had been one of the major investors in the country for over 20 years. He founded Baring Vostok investment fund. Calvey and 5 others were charged with embezzlin...

Strong fiscal performance in October, lower deficit expected in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

The Ministry of Finance announced that the federal budget deficit in October was low and reached just R143.5 bn, which brought the 10m20 tally to R1800.4bn. Meanwhile, expenditures in October reached R2071.7bn, and in 10m20 they reached R16.945 trln.Revenue flow in October was relatively strong b...

Borrowing in advance – a too cautious strategy, which may turn costly
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

This week the Finance Ministry borrowed another R313 bln on the OFZ market and in such a way reached the annual target to borrow R5.09 trln. This target was announced during the hearing of the 2021-2023 budget in the Russian parliament in early October. On top of that, the Government has also pla...

Russia opening naval base in Sudan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

A draft agreement was published by Russian on November 11 showing that the country plans to open a nuclear warship base in Sudan. Four warships and a maximum of 300 personnel can be posted there. The deal has not yet been inked. It would allow Russia's munitions to be exempt from customs inspecti...

Government spending is skyrocketing
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2020

Inflation slowed down surprisingly in October, to 21 percent from 29 percent in September. Public spending didn’t ramp up nearly as strongly as it usually does in October, while tax collection was more vigorous than we had anticipated. The money supply (M2) expanded by merely 19 percent, a pace c...

The current account widens in October, while imports may have remained stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that in 10m20 the current account surplus reached $29.9bn, which means that in October alone this surplus was rather strong having reached $5.8bn. In 9m20 the current account surplus was much lower – $24.1bn, and in 3Q20 it was just $2.5bn. The trade balance wide...

Week November 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Nov 2020

We may be seeing beginning signs of the industrial/FAI-driven stimulus weakening, but the data is mixed. Cement prices are declining but float glass prices jumped. Rebar inventory growth is slowing. One theory is that the early stages of property development, which use cement, have tapered off wh...

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