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Country Insights

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June Inflation: Food To the Rescue
TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2015
Consumer price inflation dropped by a sharper than expected 0.5% in June (June 2014: 0.3%), thanks to a 2.8%, m/m, drop in food and beverage prices (June 2014: +0.4%). This reduced the 12-month CPI rate more visibly than anticipated to 7.2%, from 8.1% in May. This is pretty much where all the goo...

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The China Loan
VENEZUELA - In Brief 02 Jul 2015
The 5th Amendment to the Agreement Between The Governments of China and Venezuela on the Joint Sino-Venezuela Financing Fund was signed on 26 June 2015 and published in Official Gazette No. 40.692 dated 30 June 2015. Doubts about China’s willingness to increase the outstanding amount of loans to ...

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Government Evaluation
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2015
CNI/Ibope: Single-Digit Popularity “Great/good” evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff government came in at only 9%, the worst result for a sitting president since the country’s re-democratization and the systematic monitoring of political image via polling. President Dilma’s performance is very bad,...

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AKP’s candidate wins Speaker elections
TURKEY - In Brief 01 Jul 2015
I want to thank all our readers on behalf of myself, Dr Murat Ucer and that rascally Cosmic Strategist for honoring us with so many questions. Only an hour after the election of the AKP candidate and current Defense Minister Mr. Ismet Yilmaz to the post of the Speaker, our mail boxes were well-at...

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Part III: Has the recession ended? Equity market valuation
INDIA - Report 01 Jul 2015
Executive Summary Equity market valuation is all about two things: projected earnings growth and the discount rate required by the market. In the past, Indian equities have obtained high valuations on the strength of the high growth rate of earnings. For a long time, there has been a nice set of ...

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Euro zone headwinds 2
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 01 Jul 2015
Five years ago, tremors from Europe’s troubled periphery countries[1], originating in Greece, rocked global financial markets. While this led to some volatility in local financial markets, the impact was temporary and the magnitude of asset price declines relatively small, reflecting the minimal ...

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Economics: Latest Data Bodes Ill for 2H15
MEXICO - Report 01 Jul 2015
Executive Summary For some time, information regarding the relative strength of the Mexican economy has been volatile and in some instances points to apparent contradictions. The same can be said of the indicators released to date for the first four months of 2015. A few weeks ago the National St...

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Politics: Officials Dither as Crime Rates Grow
MEXICO - Report 01 Jul 2015
Executive Summary This past Friday, the authorities released their latest monthly report on the number and rates of major crimes (intentional homicide, kidnapping and extortion). The data corresponded to the month of May and revealed some troubling trends. The number and rate of intentional homic...

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Rating sovereign credit
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 01 Jul 2015
Special points to highlight in this issue: The recent turmoil in China’s stock markets have changed the mood among investors who expected, perhaps foolishly, that they would have a chance to get out quickly at the first sign of trouble. It is hard to say what impact this will have on investor psy...

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Inflation Accelerates
VENEZUELA - Report 30 Jun 2015
Inflation continues accelerating. We forecast the July monthly CPI inflation rate at 13.0 percent, close to our revised June estimate (13.3 percent). The second minimum wage increase of 10 percent decreed by president Maduro in May 2015 enters into effect in July. We forecast that the shortage in...

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Part II: Has the recession ended? Balance sheet problems of banks and borrowers
INDIA - Report 30 Jun 2015
Executive Summary While the official GDP numbers are showing an optimistic picture, trusted firm databases suggest that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not ended. In the second part of our discussion of the recent GDP figures and business cycle conditions, we look at the current balance ...

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Fragile Stability
UKRAINE - Forecast 30 Jun 2015
Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabiliz...

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Electoral Economics
ARGENTINA - Report 29 Jun 2015
Executive Summary While the fiscal imbalance continues to deteriorate, activity indicators have been showing signs of improvement over the last months. Such relatively “benign” economic change ahead of the elections is no coincidence. Contrary to 2014, the Government has not only relaxed its fisc...

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Week of June 29
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 29 Jun 2015
President Dilma Rousseff is in the USA with the goal of attracting investments to the country, especially in the area of infrastructure.The Senate receives the bill on payroll tax exemptions and the provisional measure on the minimum wage.It also discusses the rules requiring Petrobras participat...

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The Weakening of the Labor Market According to Three Data Sources
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Jun 2015
The result of the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) published last week strengthens the perception that the job market is getting weaker. The PME estimates the figures on employment in the formal and informal sectors in six metropolitan regions, and according to the latest results the 12-month grow...