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Political and Economic Update
TURKEY - Report 10 Sep 2017
The arrest order by a New York court for the former Economy Minister Mr. Zafer Caglayan could be the harbinger of new tensions between Turkey and the U.S., as well as a period of trouble for the banking industry. Several EU members went on record turning down Germany’s request to end accession ta...

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Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 09 Sep 2017

Hurricane Irma caused little damage in the DR, mostly in the North Coast. The reason is that its eye, where maximum wind speed is registered (175 mph), passed nearly 75 miles off the coast. Damage was mostly caused by floods by sea waves.

Although tourist areas were hit, hotels and f...


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Control issues
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 08 Sep 2017
Russia’s leadership had not really expected that a long-delayed response to expulsion of Russian diplomats from the US and Congressional anti-Russian sanctions would be met with yet another move from the US. After Russian diplomatic properties in the US were closed by a US decision, the Kremlin u...

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Tense politics yet improving activity
ARGENTINA - Report 08 Sep 2017 1 response
After relatively positive results for the government in the recent primary elections, the political heat ahead of the actual midterm elections is increasing, with particularly harsh cross-fire between Cambiemos and the Kirchnerists. In what seems to be an attempt to shift public focus away fr...

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The mainstream view on Indian growth is shifting
INDIA - In Brief 08 Sep 2017 1 response

For a sustained period, Ila Patnaik and I have argued that India got into a downturn in 2011 and has not yet come out of it. This was inconsistent with the mainstream discourse. The conventional view of financial firm economists was that growth had crashed with the 2013 currency defense but re...


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Inflation up in August, industrial output growth temporarily (?) down in July
HUNGARY - In Brief 08 Sep 2017

Inflation data for August came out marginally higher than market expectation, and pretty much in line with our forecast, this morning. The headline rate jumped to 2.6% yoy, quite sharply up from 2.1% yoy in July, despite just 0.1% rise in the CPI in August alone. Just as we wrote in our previo...


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Record inflation in August, possible slowdown in September
VENEZUELA - Report 07 Sep 2017
We adjust our August estimated monthly inflation rate up to 32.6 percent from 28.0 percent. Year-on-year inflation rises to 748 percent and accumulated inflation for the year through 31 August 2017 rises to 357 percent. The push in August came from a stronger than expected increase in the pric...

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Embarking on a New Growth Cycle
UKRAINE - Report 06 Sep 2017
The economy is performing far better than expected. Derzhstat, the statistics agency, reported a 2.4% y/y GDP increase in Q2, twice faster than we initially projected. Booming local investment — +22.5% y/y for H1 — and recovering consumption are the drivers. Remarkably, this result was achieved d...

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​Really, Mrs. Merkel?
TURKEY - In Brief 05 Sep 2017 1 response

Pressured by her Social Democrat rival Mr. Schultz, Chancellor Merkel was forced to promise to end or suspend Turkish accession on Sunday in a televised debate. I waited until Wednesday to cover this story, because she seemed evasive in her response to Schultz. However in Tuesday, in her spe...


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The South African Economy Ends its Technical Recession
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 05 Sep 2017
South Africa’s seasonally adjusted and annualized quarterly GDP grew by 2.5% during the second quarter of 2017. This is a welcome outcome, largely expected by the market (as high frequency data was pointing to a positive growth outcome). This means South Africa is out of the technical recession w...

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Indonesian Quasi-Sovereigns
INDONESIA - Report 05 Sep 2017
Indonesian quasi-sovereigns are mostly in the form of state-owned enterprises. Currently there are over 100 SOEs, and many of them also have subsidiaries. Among the many Indonesian SOEs, Pertamina stands out as the largest company. Pertamina has several subsidiaries, and some of the subsidiaries ...

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Growth Despite Softer Consumption, in the Twilight of the Administration
MEXICO - Report 05 Sep 2017
Economic data released in August showed stronger GDP (+3.0% yoy for 2Q17) even as growth in industrial activity was restricted almost entirely to manufacturing (+4.0%). Cyclical indicators were positive as were readings of private consumption, which sustained its momentum (+ 4.0% in May), led by ...

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Aiming for an Image of Judicial Independence
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Forecast 05 Sep 2017 1 response
The National Council of the Magistracy (CNM) last month appointed new judges to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest court for the resolution of electoral conflicts. Although the appointments, factually under control of President Danilo Medina, secured the PLD’s control over the court,...

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Fuel prices likely to push up yoy CPI-inflation markedly in August
HUNGARY - In Brief 05 Sep 2017

Please, be prepared this Friday (September 8) for a marked jump by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation, to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July, despite our expectation of zero one-month change in average prices in August. This is likely to be caused by fuel prices alone (7.5% of the CPI basket), which ...


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Core Rises Further Despite Lira Stability
TURKEY - Report 05 Sep 2017
Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher than expected 0.5% in August, taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 10.7%, from 9.8% in July. Producer prices and core inflation (C-index) also rose further to 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively (from 15.5% and 9.6%), while service inflation was stable, b...