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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The ANC’s January 8th Priorities in the Context of South Africa’s Economic Reality
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jan 2021 · 1 response

The ANC issued its first January 8th Statement on its founding date (8th January 1972) and in 1979, it was decided to mark the ANC’s anniversary on every January 8th. In recent years, this day has been marked with huge country-wide celebrations. Its economic importance, however, is that it paves ...

The BoI commits to FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

Inflation came in slightly below expectationsThe CPI declined by -0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y), we had expected 0.0%. Housing rental prices surprised on the downside. Core inflation declined to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% in November. The PPI (exc. fuel) declined by to -1.4% y/y from -1.3%. Low inflation is mos...

Waiting for Biden, vaccine and reform
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jan 2021

The countries in Turkey’s region are apprehensively waiting for the arrival of the Biden Era, predicted to have a renewed focus on Middle East, Russia and Iran. The first section in politics covers how prepared Turkey is and what can be expected in the upcoming Erdogan-Biden talks. A small disast...

Russia to withdraw troops from the Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

On January 15 Moscow told the United Nations that the military instructors in the Central African Republic (CAR) will come home. The news was supposed to be confidential but was leaked by diplomats. Moscow has made no official announcement.The UN Sanctions Committee is observing the situation in ...

Russia withdraws from Open Skies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 16 Moscow announced that it is no longer bound by the Open Skies Treaty. The United States withdrew from it in 2020. The US and Russia have been exchanging accusations of breaching the treaty for years. Russia forbade flights over Kaliningrad.US allies in Europe wanted to maintain the ...

Natural Gas prices rising in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

Since the start of 2021 there have been demonstrations in Ukraine against the hike in natural gas prices. The market has been liberalized. In Ukraine temperatures fall to -20 C at this time of the year.President Zelensky vowed to cut gas prices by 30%. Naftogaz said it will cut prices to USD 0.25...

Sberbank's profit USD 10 billion 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 15 Russia's largest bank published its profit for 2020. The profit was 7.7% down on 2019. The bank is state owned and has a market capitalization of USD 88 billion. Profits for Sberbank collapsed in Q2 2020, although they have since rebounded.The bank aimed to make USD 13.6 billion 202...

Russian tax service: our citizens have USD 180 billion abroad
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Federal Tax Service provided an estimate of the assets that Russian citizens hold in other countries. These assets are kept in 700,000 accounts. The figures are based on information reported by Russian citizens in tax returns and information sharing between governments. The true...

The hyperinflation menace remains near
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Our central inflation forecast scenario has inflation slowing down a bit in 2021, to 2,200 percent this year from 2,500 percent last year. Black market dollars appreciate against the bolivar by 1,700 percent and sell for 20 million bolivars by year end but lose bolivar purchasing power for the fo...

​GULF WEEKLY: Oman issues bonds and appoints heir, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns, Covid rates rise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The UAE has reached 14% vaccination but covid infection rates have tripled in two weeks. * The core of Neom is envisaged as a 170km futuristic zero-carbon linear city call...

Retail sales and China’s “Super Cities”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Retail sales have declined due to Covid. However, we expect a strong pick-up in sales as the impact of Covid weakens because of several factors. First, the growth in household bank deposits has remained strong; and second, the majority of national retail sales occur in a small subset of the count...

Deflation of 0.7% in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2021

December’s CPI surprised on the downside, declining 0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y compared to -0.6% in November). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) reached -0.4% y/y in December, following -0.2% in November. The main inflation surprise came from the housing rental item (17.2...

Dominican Government issues bonds for USD2.5 b as part of the financing of the public budget for 2021.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Minister of Finance announced the issuance of sovereign bonds for USD2.5 b as part of the financing to be contracted in 2021. Of the total of bonds issued, USD1 b corresponds to the opening of a bond that matures in 2030 with a yield of 3.87% , while the remaining USD1.5 b corresponds to a ne...

New macro data and an important statement from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

Really in brief, a few quite favorable new numbers are out, and the MNB has just said it is not planning policy changes in short term.In more detail, December CPI-inflation has been reported at 2.7% yoy, unchanged from the previous month. This means, of course, that the headline rate ended 2020 s...

Kazakh elections lead to governing party solidifying power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

On January 11 Kazakhstan held a parliamentary election. As expected, the Nur Otan Party won most of the seats in the Mazhilis (parliament). Nur Otan (Radiant Fatherland) still has Nazarbayev as its chairman.The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) castigated the election as ...

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