NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Central government cash deficit slightly below target in full-year 2019
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

The central government's cash deficit was announced by the Finance Ministry today at HUF 453bn for December and HUF 1219bn for full-year 2019, the latter down from HUF 1445bn in 2018. This means a deficit of 2.6% of GDP last year, just slightly below the 2.7% target figure and more significantly ...

Inflation slows to 4.1% ytd in 2019, much below the targeted level
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

CPI slowed to 4.1% ytd or 7.9% y/y in 2019 down from +9.8% ytd or +10.9% y/y a year ago, beating any projections for the year. The NBU aimed +6.3% ytd but now consumer inflation is more than 2ppt below the target. Falling transportation prices (-2.4% ytd vs. +12.9% ytd in 2018), sliding utilities...

Happy new year?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

First, the good news. Government has a new P4.1 trillion budget which President Duterte signed into law early this week. This would normally be par for the course but, following last year’s delayed budget that became a major drag on economic growth, is clearly a positive development. Public spend...

Gross reserves jump by $3.4 billion in December, touching 7-years highs
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jan 2020

The NBU reported $25.3 billion or 3.9 months of imports by the end of December 2019. It appeared to be an impressive jump by 15.4% or $3.4 billion just for one month (up by $4.5 billion since the year start). That high level of gross reserves has not been seen since November 2012. At the press-re...

Pipeline from Russia to Turkey opens
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

On January 8 the Turkstream pipeline was launched. The pipeline is 930 km across the Black Sea. The aim is to avoid Russian gas going via Ukraine. Gazprom is the company sending the gas. The capacity will be 15.75 bcm. Much of the gas will transit on the to the EU.This is the third pipeline extan...

Ukrainian passenger plane crashes in Iran
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

On January 8 a Ukrainian International Airlines plane crashed in Iran. All 176 people aboard were killed. The cause of the disaster has not yet been determined. Already some people on the internet are making accusations of foul play. The crash comes at a moment of high tension between Iran and th...

A gap has opened up between the performance of listed and unlisted companies
INDIA · Report · 08 Jan 2020

Listed firms in India experienced buoyant growth from 1999 until about 2006, but their growth in the following period has been disappointing. In this note, we find that until 2012, listed and unlisted firms fared similarly. But since 2012, a significant gap has opened up between the two groups. U...

Limited Iranian counterstrike seems credit positive for GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Jan 2020

Soon after midnight, Baghdad time, January 8, Iran fired over a dozen ballistic missiles at two of the main bases hosting US forces in Iraq. The missiles struck the main al-Asad base in the western Anbar region and another base near Erbil in the Kurdistan region. Initial reports, including from T...

Why?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020 · 1 response

On 5 January 2020 the regime carried out a parliamentary coup aimed at replacing Juan Guaidó as president of the National Assembly (AN). It created a fictitious, fraudulent and obedient AN Board while, at the same time, a legitimate Board headed by Juan Guaidó emerged from the vote of 100 deputie...

Ukraine worried about immigration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020

Poland is considering making it easier for Ukrainian to gain permanent residency. There are over a million Ukrainians legally resident in Poland. The languages of the two neighbors are very similar. The Polish proposal got mixed reactions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians want to move somewhere where t...

China and the impossible trinity
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Capital flight continues to be a major issue for Beijing, with the “Errors and omissions” account at an all-time high. • The central bank wants to maintain relatively easy monetary conditions as it tries to work its way through China’s debt burden, b...

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit in 2019 exceeded the planned deficit by 12bn ILS, due to a 9.2bn undershooting of revenues and a 2.8bn overshooting in spending. Expenditures of government ministries increased by 6.3% y/y, above the original planned budget of 5.1% growth in spending.Tax revenues were up 3.5% i...

Rate stability expected this week with a more neutral bias
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2020

GDP growth reached 3.3% in 2019 on strong domestic consumption and service exports. Growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 2.8% on weaker consumption due to a tighter fiscal position, offset by natural gas exports. Average wages are expanding by 2.5%-2.8% annual, supportive of PC demand and some m...

Rate stability expected on Thursday with a more neutral bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2020

GDP growth in 2019 reached 3.3% (1.3% per capita)Drivers: Private consumption increased by 3.9%, public consumption 4.1% and service exports 9.0%.Weak growth: industrial exports up only 1.5%, and investments in fixed assets up only 0.3%.The public debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline in 2019 (be...

New year, old problems
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2020 · 1 response

After a brief update of the political scene, the New Year’s politics coverage starts with the Idlib crisis, which has pushed a quarter million refugees to Turkey’s borders. President Erdogan will try to hash out another ceasefire with Putin on the 8th of January meeting, but it might take some sa...