RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 22 Nov 2013

Executive Summary The Economy Ministry has sharply lowered its long-term growth forecast for 2013-2030. This is because it relies upon a conservative base scenario, of 2.5% instead of 4.1% CАAGR. While we aren’t in a position to reassess the significance of official forecasts, or the figures used...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 21 Nov 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pointed out today that it expects the inflation rate to hang around 6% - the upper limit of the target range. These worries over persistent inflation come even though the headline inflation rate has recently made its way...

SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 21 Nov 2013

In our opinion, the most important message to take from today’s MPC meeting is that currency volatility and weakness complicates the inflation outlook. Despite a recently adopted move to reduce exposure to the US dollar, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has generally not shown a keen interes...

UKRAINE - In Brief 21 Nov 2013

 A strange document has been released by the Cabinet today. The prime-minister Mykola Azarov ordered the state bodies to stop preparation activities to EU Association agreement.  The regulation also suggested creation of three-side working group with representatives of EU and Russia for solving t...

COLOMBIA - In Brief 20 Nov 2013 2 responses

In a national TV broadcast, Juan Manuel Santos announced his intention to be reelected as Colombia's President next year.His reasons to run again: the need to continue fighting the war on poverty, improving security, increasing overall quality of life and achieving peace.He has yet to announce wh...

TURKEY - In Brief 20 Nov 2013

I have attended the CBT’s regular monthly meeting with economists today.  The key message is that the Bank is trying to simplify and normalize monetary policy.  First, they seem to have realised that, as far as inflation dynamics go, they have run out of excuses, with core and service inflation b...

ARGENTINA - Report 20 Nov 2013

As we mentioned in our market brief of October 28[1], there were rumors that Hernán Lorenzino would step down as Economic Minister and be replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors speculated that the change would be announced once Cristina Fernández de Kirchner returned from her medical...

MEXICO - Report 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Chamber of Deputies passed the Federal Spending Budget (FSB) for 2014. It authorizes 8.47 trillion pesos in spending, a real term 8.8% increase over the 2013 spending budget.According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), the budget favors investment expenditure over ...

MEXICO - Report 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration has been roundly criticized for the slow pace with which it has defined some key strategies and programs and has gotten the basic machinery of government up and running since taking office last December. This lethargy has been striki...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 20 Nov 2013

Voting unanimously, the Supreme Court yesterday found the Priority Develpment Assistance Fund (PDAF), i.e., the lawmakers' pork barrel funds, unconstitutional, ordering some P14.5 billion remaining in the fund to be returned to the Treasury. On the whole, we think that this outcome is favorable t...

ARGENTINA - In Brief 19 Nov 2013

As we mentioned in our market brief on October the 28th, after the mid-term elections, there have been rumors that that Hernán Lorenzino would be stepping down as Economic Minister and being replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors were that such change would be announced once Cristina...

TURKEY - Report 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following, which was the critical sentence of the statement: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious ...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Nov 2013

Ibope released a new poll on the 2014 presidential race, conducted from November 7-11. Four possible scenarios were polled. In every scenario, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has a strong lead over her possible adversaries. In the first scenario, presented in Table 1, President Dilma widened her lead over he...

TURKEY - In Brief 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious stance and reduce the volatility of short term mon...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Nov 2013

Election years are usually accompanied by political cycles: governments abandon fiscal and monetary austerity in search of ways to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. The overall aim is to boost the popularity of the candidate supported by the party in power. This happened in Braz...