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Slow and Gradual Economic Policy
VENEZUELA - Report 22 Aug 2013
Executive Summary With December municipal elections nearing, President Maduro and the PSUV face political challenges from within chavismo as well as from the opposition. Small allied parties are protesting for having been offered only 5 percent of the candidacies. The base is unhappy that no prim...

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Pdvsa 2035 show up in Sicad
VENEZUELA - In Brief 21 Aug 2013 2 responses
The BCV bond portfolio emerges as a source of funds for Sicad auctions. The BCV has called a $330 million bid which will be funded through the sale of Pdvsa 2035, without affecting its dwindling foreign reserves. The Sicad bond system differs from Sitme. In Sicad, importers will not acquire bonds...

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Mexico’s two earthquakes: one shook the capital, the other economic growth
MEXICO - In Brief 21 Aug 2013
Mexico suffered a mid-strong earthquake this morning, fortunately with no major consequences. That’s not the case with GDP growth figures for Q2 released yesterday by INEGI. They show a contraction of 0.74% compared to previous quarter and 1.5 % on annual basis. This came as a big surprise since ...

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Turkey’s new Middle East policy: Precious isolation
TURKEY - Report 21 Aug 2013
It is astounding how rapidly Erdogan alienates Turkey’s allies in the Middle East. The last two victims of his boundless rage are Egypt and Israel—for a third time. Once a contender for the role of king-maker in the region, aspiring to export its economic and political model, Ankara is increasing...

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Headline Inflation Rate Breaches the 6 per cent level
SOUTH AFRICA - In Brief 21 Aug 2013
According to figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the headline inflation rate for July 2013 recorded 6.3 per cent year-on-year, a tad higher than the market’s expectation of 6.2 per cent. Given that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had anticipated the headline inflation rate to...

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Philippines:Typhoon, monsoon, floods
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 21 Aug 2013
Financial markets remained closed for the third straight day as a public holiday today followed two days of heavy rains and severe flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.  Storm Maring (international name, Trami) dumped over a month's volume of rains in the south of Manila yesterday s...

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Timid Defense of the Lira Continues
TURKEY - Report 20 Aug 2013
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps today, to 7.75%, but left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged (Graph 1). The Committee kept the lending rate for primary dealers at 6.75%, which means that the “normal day rate” h...

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Chile: Economic activity expanded 4.1% in second quarter 2013
CHILE - In Brief 19 Aug 2013
The Chilean economy grew 4.1percent yoy in the second quarter of 2012. Internal demand increased 4.5 percent yoy during the same quarter. This growth was led by private consumption, which grew at a solid 7.0 percent yoy, slightly above the 6.8 percent increase in the first quarter of 2013. The cu...

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Election Dynamics Pick Up
CHILE - Report 19 Aug 2013
It has been an election season full of surprises. First former Mining Minister Laurence withdrew as candidate of the conservative UDI party, to be replaced by veteran former senator and Economy Minister Pablo Longueira. Then in July Longueira unexpectedly withdrew, citing a severe depression, lea...

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Conflict Between the Central Bank and Finance Ministry
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Aug 2013
Last Friday the depreciation of the real accelerated, with the exchange rate approaching R$2.40/US$, which is the quotation attained at the height of the crisis in 2008 (Graph 1). Graph 1 Exchange Rate – daily data Winds from the United States contributed to this movement. The probability has bee...

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Vehicle Production Hits the Brakes
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 19 Aug 2013
Workers in the South African vehicle industry embarked today on strikes due to a deadlock in wage negotiations between unions and employers. The performance of the vehicle industry has by and large been resilient during the first half of 2013. Also, vehicle sales grew by 7.5% in the year to July ...

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Political Algebra of Energy Reform
MEXICO - Report 19 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The debate on energy reform is formally underway now that President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled his energy reform proposal. It proved to be less ambitious than many in the private sector and on the right had hoped for, as the government continues to walk a fine political line th...

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How the Reform Proposals Stack Up
MEXICO - Report 19 Aug 2013
Executive Summary The administration of President Enrique Peña sent the Mexican Congress a proposal to reform two articles of the Constitution regarding the energy industry last week. If approved, those changes would allow for private investment in the exploration, extraction, refining, transport...

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Political Insights: Week of August 19
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 19 Aug 2013
On Tuesday Congress will analyze the controversial vetoes by President Dilma Rousseff.These include the additional 10% fine on the Unemployment Guarantee Fund (FGTS) owed by employers to the federal government in cases of unfair dismissal, and the extension of Reintegra.If overturned, they will h...

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CNT/MDA shows significant popularity losses for Dilma
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Aug 2013
On July 16, CNT/MDA released a poll on the Dilma Rousseff administration, taken from July 7-10.As with the previous Datafolha research, this poll showed a significant drop in Dilma’s approval rating, which fell from 54.2% to 31.1% (23.1 percentage points) compared to the previous poll, from June....