Country Insights

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Even With Reforms, Debt Will Constrain Global Growth
CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 14 Jan 2015
Special Points To Highlight In This Issue:In spite of overwhelming historical evidence, and a sophisticated understanding of the mechanics of financial distress in finance theory, one of the most consistent mistakes macroeconomists make is their failure to recognize the growth constraints that em...

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CPI-inflation deeply below consensus in December 2014
HUNGARY - In Brief 14 Jan 2015
CPI-inflation for December 2014 is out this morning: -0.7% mom / -0.9% yoy (-0.7% yoy in November). The consensus expectation was -0.4-(-0.5%) yoy in various polls. Core inflation is down to 0.8% yoy from 1.2% in November, and our estimate of the underlying inflation rate is down very sharply, to...

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Third Quarter Aggregate Demand
MEXICO - Report 13 Jan 2015
Executive Summary Aggregate supply and demand data at the third quarter of 2014 describe a scenario in which Mexico’s non petroleum exports remain strong, private investment and consumption are recovering at a slightly more solid pace, and public spending remains stalled as continuing growth in p...

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First Half Holds Clues to Governability
MEXICO - Report 13 Jan 2015
Executive Summary The two events that will dominate political life in Mexico during the first half of the year are this June’s midterm congressional elections and simultaneous local races in 17 states, and the spring session of Congress with its huge backlog of crucial legislation. At a time when...

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The Future Hangs on Budget Revision
UKRAINE - Forecast 13 Jan 2015
Executive Summary Though the year has begun, it’s still hard to envision how the next 12 months will unfold. Russian aggression is still on the agenda, but the core troublemaker right now is Ukraine’s 2015 budget. Disregarding the need to comply with the IMF austerity measures, the Ukrainian auth...

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December CPI confirmed at 11.4% y-o-y, highest since August, 2009
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 12 Jan 2015
Rosstat released today CPI data for December which matched preliminary estimates published at year-end. In December consumer prices rose 2.6% m-o-m, highest growth rates since January, 2005. In annual terms CPI reached 11.4% y-o-y, maximum since August, 2009. Rise in inflation was broad-based. Fo...

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Political Insights: Week of January 12
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 12 Jan 2015
The government’s help for electric energy distributors and the possible ministerial meeting are the two most important events for the week.Decisions on second and third-tier posts are also on the agenda. In the economy, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for November by the Central Bank....

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2015: Slow Growth, Low Inflation, Weaker Forint, Stable Budget
HUNGARY - Forecast 12 Jan 2015
Executive SummarySince our previous Quarterly Report in October 2014, Hungary’s outlook has not changed dramatically, though it has been significantly modified by external factors like sharply falling crude oil prices, the weakening of the European business cycle, and the most recent deterioratio...

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What can be Expected on the Inflation Front in 2015?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Jan 2015
In its most recent pronouncement, the Central Bank promised it would do “what is necessary to reduce inflation”. This is not the first time this promise has been made, and the fear that it will again not be kept justifies caution in making any projections. Although the presence of Joaquim Levy at...

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Weekly Tracker: January 11-17
TURKEY - Report 11 Jan 2015
Executive Summary As a terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo shocked the world, smaller scale incidents in Istanbul were causing deep concern for us. Experts warn that a spate of bombings and sabotages may be in the cards for Turkey. AKP successfully hushed up the graft probe against four ex-minister...

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GDP growth at 7.1% in 2014; CAD reduces to 3.1% of GDP; inflation was the lowest since 1984
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 11 Jan 2015
The Central Bank released GDP growth figures for 2014. Expansion of economic activities was estimated at 7.1% compared to 2013. The figure is well above expectations and is the highest rate registered in Latin America, whose average reached only 1.1%. Leading activities were mining (20.9%), const...

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Revival in Investment?
INDIA - Report 07 Jan 2015
Executive Summary The increased confidence associated with the new BJP government has shown up nicely in the data for announcements of new investment projects. Quarter-on-quarter growth of announcements for the Oct-Dec 2014 quarter was +22% for government projects, +6.4% for private projects and ...

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The Economy Comes First
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 07 Jan 2015
The rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble and unexpected actions by the Central Bank undermined popular trust in the government and persuaded Russians to convert ruble savings into other currencies or buy consumer goods. So far, only a small segment of Russians, those with significant savings h...

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Devaluation 2015: Act One
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Jan 2015 2 responses
After the long suspense caused by President Maduro’s announcements of "a new exchange system", made on December 30, Exchange Agreement 32 circulated on January 5. The delay, added to recent changes in the boards of Pdvsa and Cencoex, suggest that the government’s team disagreed on the foreign exc...

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Inflation: A Happy Ending to a Bad Year
TURKEY - Report 05 Jan 2015
December CPI inflation came in at a negative 0.4%, which was markedly lower than expected (0.1% increase). The 12-month CPI inflation hence fell quite sharply, ending the year at 8.2%, down from 9.2% in November. Domestic-PPI also fell sharply, ending the year at 6.4%, down from 8.4% (Table 1; Gr...