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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Guatemala: Back to the streets
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Major civil protests asking for the resignation of President Alejandro Giammattei and opposing the large deficit in next year´s budget took place in the streets of Guatemala City and some other major domestic locations this weekend. As usually happens in events of this type, small groups took a m...

Economics: Myopic view of debt portfolios
MEXICO · Report · 23 Nov 2020

The cumulative flow of financial and economic data points to an extension of the negative impacts that accompanied the novel coronavirus pandemic, an effect that could be further exacerbated next year in some sectors. The authorities have been blindly flailing with the policies they have applied ...

Maia decides to resume Tax Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2020 · 1 response

This is the last week of electoral ads ahead of the municipal runoff round, which will take place in 57 cities on November 29. There will be reduced activity in Congress. In the Senate, the main item on the agenda is the bill on bankruptcies. The Ministry of Economy and IBGE will release unemploy...

Temporary Relief in the Markets
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Nov 2020

The election of Biden in the United States and the news about the pending approval of effective vaccines against COVID 19 have increased investor’s risk appetite throughout the world. This has caused a generalized upward movement of stock prices, including in Brazil. The optimism over the vaccine...

Essential CIS Politics: November 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Nov 2020

* A war between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended in a decisive Azeri victory. Russia intervened as a peacekeeper, preventing a total Armenian rout. * The Russian stock market and RUB experienced rosy times in mid-November on good vaccine news, although economic recovery is problematic. * Ru...

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Nov 2020

We expect a modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year and growth of 4.8% next year. Economic indicators point to further recovery, especially in manufacturing. We expect government tradeable bond issuance in 2021 to reach around 10bn ILS per month, below that of recent months.

US pulls out of Open Skies Treaty with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

On November 22 the US announced that it has left the Open Skies Treaty. The treay has been in effect since 2002. It allowed Russia, the USA and various European countries to send unarmed planes over each others' territory to verify that there was no military buildup.The United States said that Ru...

Russia imposes more sanctions on the UK
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

On November 21 Moscow announced it was sanctioning 25 Britons. The names have not been published. London imposed similar sanctions on 25 Russians in June for alleged human rights abuses. The British citizens on the list are forbidden to enter Russia. The British sanctions on Russians included ass...

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

Highlights: Q320 GDP growth reached 37.9% saar The level of GDP in Q320 is down only 1.4% y/y. Growth was supported by strong export growth, both industrial and hi-tech services. We expect GDP growth to decline by 3.5% this year and expand by 4.8% next year. Economic indicators continue to point ...

The proof of the pudding is...
TURKEY · Report · 22 Nov 2020

Mr. Erdogan has proven his keen political instincts and pragmatism once again, rapidly changing the mood music that has been playing non-stop in Ankara especially for the last two years. He now promises austerity, human rights reforms and better relations with the West. A significant amount of sk...

Golden visa program proposed in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2020

On November 20 Izvestia newspaper reported that the government intends to start a scheme offering permanent residency for investors. People who put at least USD 130 000 into the economy and hire at least 10 employees will be allowed to settle in the country. Russia has seen its people and money m...

SARB decides on a cautionary "wait and see" approach, keeping the repo rate unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

In a largely anticipated move, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has opted to keep the repo rate unchanged at the last MPC meeting of the year. This comes as two members of the committee preferred a 25-bps cut and three members voted for a hold. The decision is in line with Bloomberg economis...

​October statistics look better than expected – despite some restrictions returned
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that in October, the retail sales continued to catch up, and after an increase by 2.1% m-o-m, they were down by a mere 3.8% y-o-y that month and by 4.6% y-o-y in 10m20 (here and below m-o-m rates are not seasonally adjusted). Construction remained nearly flat y-o-y both in Octobe...

Partial Covid-lockdown deepens this year's economic setback
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Nov 2020

In response to a rapid spreading of the Covid-19 virus, PM Orbán eventually gave in and introduced a partial lockdown rule from November 11. This was essentially unavoidable in view of the heavy pressure mounting on available health care capacities. Previous restrictions have already started to b...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco bond, UAE OPEC exit rumors, Trump considered an Iran strike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Nov 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC+ is musing a 3-6 month taper delay, and there are rumors the UAE will quit (it won’t...yet). * Trump considered a strike on Iran, while Zarif urged Biden not to wait ...

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