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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Elections and second infection wave are key risks to outlook
PERU · Forecast · 19 Jan 2021

The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones last week approved 18 out of 23 registered political parties that had submitted candidate slates for the April 11th presidential and congressional elections. The number of participants may change, either because some of the rejected parties successfully appeal th...

Economics: 2021 Economic prospects and hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2021

It will take a lot more than a successful Covid-19 vaccination drive to get the Mexican economy back on a firm recovery path, and an effective inoculation campaign is by no means certain at this point. Obviously the 2021 outlook will be determined by many moving parts, ranging from the strength o...

While the Government Blunders, Monetary Policy is Doing its Part, but Has Reached its Limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2021

In our opinion, at its meeting this week the COPOM will maintain the SELIC rate at 2%, but will exclude the commitment to keep it at that level for an extended period (forward guidance). Since in real terms, the basic interest rate is lower than the neutral rate, monetary policy will continue act...

Politics: 4T Agenda, past, present and Future
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jan 2021

President López Obrador made a public commitment last September to pass by the end of 2020 all of the essential constitutional reforms and legislative bills comprising the basic structure of what he has long promised will be the fourth historical transformation of Mexico. But although he has tak...

The government against the ropes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2021

Expectations surround the beginning of vaccinations against Covid-19 this week. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President of the United States. This week's Talking Points * The governme...

Car sales in Russia down 9%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Association of European Businesses (AEB) published data on car sales in Russia in 2020. Russians bought 1.6 million cars in 2020 as opposed to 1.76 million the previous year. The decline is less marked than in most countries. Owning a car is still beyond the reach of the working...

To boost 2020’s GDP, Beijing sharply increased all the things it has been trying to rein in
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Jan 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to the triumphalist reading of the press, China’s 2020 GDP growth data were very problematic. While we all focus on the headline growth number, it is important to recognize that the Chinese economy in almost every important structural way has...

Russia arrests Navalny on his return
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2021

On January 17 Alexei Navalny flew back to Russia after months recovering in Germany. As the government warned him he would be, he was arrested within minutes of landing. The reason for his arrest was for parole violations. He has been in and out of jail several times already. Hundreds of well-wis...

The BoI commits to FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2021

Highlights: Inflation came in slightly below expectations • The CPI declined by -0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y); we had expected 0.0%. • Housing rental prices surprised on the downside. • Core inflation declined to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% in November. • The PPI (exc. fuel) declined by to -1.4% y/y from...

The ANC’s January 8th Priorities in the Context of South Africa’s Economic Reality
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jan 2021 · 1 response

The ANC issued its first January 8th Statement on its founding date (8th January 1972) and in 1979, it was decided to mark the ANC’s anniversary on every January 8th. In recent years, this day has been marked with huge country-wide celebrations. Its economic importance, however, is that it paves ...

The BoI commits to FX purchases of 30bn USD in 2021
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

Inflation came in slightly below expectationsThe CPI declined by -0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y), we had expected 0.0%. Housing rental prices surprised on the downside. Core inflation declined to -0.4% y/y from -0.2% in November. The PPI (exc. fuel) declined by to -1.4% y/y from -1.3%. Low inflation is mos...

Waiting for Biden, vaccine and reform
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jan 2021

The countries in Turkey’s region are apprehensively waiting for the arrival of the Biden Era, predicted to have a renewed focus on Middle East, Russia and Iran. The first section in politics covers how prepared Turkey is and what can be expected in the upcoming Erdogan-Biden talks. A small disast...

Russia to withdraw troops from the Central African Republic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2021

On January 15 Moscow told the United Nations that the military instructors in the Central African Republic (CAR) will come home. The news was supposed to be confidential but was leaked by diplomats. Moscow has made no official announcement.The UN Sanctions Committee is observing the situation in ...

Russia withdraws from Open Skies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

On January 16 Moscow announced that it is no longer bound by the Open Skies Treaty. The United States withdrew from it in 2020. The US and Russia have been exchanging accusations of breaching the treaty for years. Russia forbade flights over Kaliningrad.US allies in Europe wanted to maintain the ...

Natural Gas prices rising in Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2021

Since the start of 2021 there have been demonstrations in Ukraine against the hike in natural gas prices. The market has been liberalized. In Ukraine temperatures fall to -20 C at this time of the year.President Zelensky vowed to cut gas prices by 30%. Naftogaz said it will cut prices to USD 0.25...

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