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Country Insights

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The MNB reduced the base rate but also ended its recent easing cycle on July 21
HUNGARY - In Brief 22 Jul 2015
In our monthly report of July, we predicted that at the Monetary Council's next meeting, the MNB would end its most recent series of base rate cuts, which was started in March from 2.1% and was carried out in 15 bps steps over four consecutive months since then. This was in the face of an average...

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Politics: An Unforgivable Mistake
MEXICO - Report 22 Jul 2015
Executive Summary When Mexico’s most famous drug kingpin and high-security prisoner broke out of the country’s top maximum security facility, it was just the latest example of how much a culture of government corruption and official indifference has left the entire criminal justice system vulnera...

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Economics: Household Income and Spending
MEXICO - Report 22 Jul 2015
Executive Summary Last week’s report on the National Survey of Household Income and Spending for 2014, which tracks general totals as well as the origin and distribution of such income and spending, showed that current monetary incomes fell 3.1% including transfers, and 0.9% without transfers. In...

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Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 22 Jul 2015
CNT/MDA:Considerable wear on the image of Dilma and Lula The CNT/MDA poll released yesterday presents a worrisome scenario for the Planalto: Disapproval of the Dilma Rousseff administration has surpassed 70%, while only 7.7% evaluate it positively, confirming the trend anticipated by Ibope – appr...

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Growth Slows Amid Loss of Confidence
ECUADOR - Report 22 Jul 2015
Executive SummaryEcuadorians are already seeing the painful effects of falling oil prices. Though Q1 economic growth was 3% y/y, but it was down 0.5% from Q4 2014, deepening the downtrend that started in 2013. Household consumption fell 0.57% q/q, government consumption by 1.7%, and gross capital...

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Medina Commands Wide Lead, Controversies and All
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 21 Jul 2015
Executive Summary Inflation is returning to normal, after a period in negative territory as oil prices declined. Inflation in June was 0.41%, up from 0.29% in May. Yet low inflation in the first four months of 2015 will keep the annual figure very low. Monetary authorities continue to pursue a po...

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​Terror and coalition
TURKEY - In Brief 21 Jul 2015
I apologize for delaying this update on the horrific terror attack in the town of Suruc, Sanliurfa Province, only miles away from the Syrian border, to cover Tuesday’s AKP-CHP meeting, as well. The terror attack confirms what has been claimed in our Weekly Trackers many times: Turkey has become p...

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The Recession Deepens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 21 Jul 2015
A new set of information published last week confirms that GDP in 2015 will contract by around 2% (or a bit more). Although the IBC-Br for May remained stable (after a decline of 0.9% in the previous month), the carry-over to the second quarter indicates a dip of 1.6% (or 6.4% in annualized terms...

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Annual Ramadan Pilgrimage
INDONESIA - Report 21 Jul 2015
Executive Summary In June and July, the Indonesian economy started to move higher, driven principally by the season of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. At the same time, the more extensive implementation of government spending now taking place can also drive the economy faster. Ramadan has...

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Week of July 20
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 20 Jul 2015
President Dilma Rousseff has until Wednesday to explain the “2014 Fiscal Maneuvers” to the TCU. The report on expenses and revenue, which is expected confirm the government’s difficulties in meeting the primary surplus goal for 2015, will also be released. A presidential veto of the salary increa...

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Weekly Tracker: July 19-25
TURKEY - Report 19 Jul 2015
Executive Summary PM Davutoglu’s visit to MHP and HDP failed to produce viable coalition partners, but CHP appeared willing, with many experts claiming that trust has been established between the two parties.AKP and CHP set up a joint exploratory committee to negotiate the nuts and bolts of the c...

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Cunha’s reaction: sign of increased tension in Brazilian politics
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Jul 2015
The possibility of a search and seizure operation at the residence of the president of the House of Representatives, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), after similar operations were conducted at the homes of senators in the Politeia Operation, has contributed to increased tension in Brasília. In practice, ...

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Cunha moves to the opposition and threatens the government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 17 Jul 2015
The president of the House of Representatives, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), announced his formal break from the government and is advocating that the PMDB do the same. During a press conference, he sent a series of messages to the Planalto. The political crisis just wrote another chapter and is point...

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Lava Jato Operation
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 15 Jul 2015
Lava Jato in the STF becomes Operation “Politeia” The search and seizure of goods and documents belonging to senators and federal representatives, part of the “Politeia” Operation, a wing of the Lava Jato Operation in the STF, took place this morning and represents a historic mark in national pol...

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Politics: Talk but No Action on Crime and Graft
MEXICO - Report 15 Jul 2015
Executive Summary The governing Revolutionary Institutional Party (PRI) has interpreted its first place finish in last month’s congressional elections as a mandate for pursuing its pre-existing political agenda and a public endorsement of the performance of President Enrique Peña Nieto. In doing ...