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​GULF WEEKLY: Oman issues bonds and appoints heir, Kuwait’s cabinet resigns, Covid rates rise
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The UAE has reached 14% vaccination but covid infection rates have tripled in two weeks. * The core of Neom is envisaged as a 170km futuristic zero-carbon linear city call...

Retail sales and China’s “Super Cities”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Retail sales have declined due to Covid. However, we expect a strong pick-up in sales as the impact of Covid weakens because of several factors. First, the growth in household bank deposits has remained strong; and second, the majority of national retail sales occur in a small subset of the count...

Deflation of 0.7% in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2021

December’s CPI surprised on the downside, declining 0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y compared to -0.6% in November). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) reached -0.4% y/y in December, following -0.2% in November. The main inflation surprise came from the housing rental item (17.2...

Dominican Government issues bonds for USD2.5 b as part of the financing of the public budget for 2021.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Minister of Finance announced the issuance of sovereign bonds for USD2.5 b as part of the financing to be contracted in 2021. Of the total of bonds issued, USD1 b corresponds to the opening of a bond that matures in 2030 with a yield of 3.87% , while the remaining USD1.5 b corresponds to a ne...

New macro data and an important statement from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

Really in brief, a few quite favorable new numbers are out, and the MNB has just said it is not planning policy changes in short term.In more detail, December CPI-inflation has been reported at 2.7% yoy, unchanged from the previous month. This means, of course, that the headline rate ended 2020 s...

Kazakh elections lead to governing party solidifying power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

On January 11 Kazakhstan held a parliamentary election. As expected, the Nur Otan Party won most of the seats in the Mazhilis (parliament). Nur Otan (Radiant Fatherland) still has Nazarbayev as its chairman.The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) castigated the election as ...

CPI inflation
INDIA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

Through 2020, a great debate had raged on the question of inflation and the inflation targeting regime.Under the inflation targeting regime, headline inflation (i.e. year-on-year CPI inflation) is required to stay between 2 and 6 per cent. In December 2019, the bound was breached, when inflation ...

The BoI commits to purchasing 30bn USD this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Bank of Israel announced today that it will purchases 30bn USD in order to stem the forces supporting shekel appreciation. The shekel has appreciated rapidly since November, a trend which accelerated into January. 30bn USD is a significant amount (21bn were purchased in 2020) and could defini...

The authorities return natural gas price regulation amid public protests
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Cabinet returned price regulation for natural gas on January 13th. The decision was delivered on the heels of mass protests against tariffs’ increase. From January 2021 many gas distributing companies have increased natural gas prices for customers, substantially on the back of growing prices...

OMAN: Raising up to $5bn in bonds and loans
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

Today Oman is building a book for a bond issuance thought to be targeting $2-3bn. The bonds are a tap on the 2025 issuance from last October along with new 10 and 30 year tranches (Rt, BB). This follows the $2.5bn issued in October/November and comes at the same time that it has also mandated ban...

Moscow children back to school
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

On January 14 the Mayor of Moscow announced that schools will reopen. That is because coronavirus infections have fallen to a manageable level. Children shall return to school on January 18. Over 65s will be permitted to move around freely on January 21. The rule on workplaces' having no more tha...

RUB most undervalued major currency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021

On January 12 the Economist's "Big Mac" Index proved that the RUB is threefold undervalued. Judging by market exchanges it ought to be worth 24 to the USD and not 73 to the USD, as it is.This index accounts for differences in the standard of living according to GDP per head. The RUB is the most u...

The Worsening Pandemic and Uncertainty over the Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2021

We start by urging those who typically attribute “subjective probabilities” to the occurrence of events to read the book Radical Uncertainty, written by Mervin King (former governor of the Bank of England) and John Kay. They recommend that when faced with a situation of radical uncertainty – as i...

Russia speeding up large scale vaccinations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021

On January 12 Russia started public vaccinations at an astronaut training center. Cosmonauts were the top priority of Sputnik V since the space program is a huge source of national pride. A space mission is due to be launched in April 2021.On January 13 massive public vaccinations were rolled out...

International Reserves Replacement and Expansion Program
CHILE · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021

In an unexpected decision, the Central Bank of Chile announced today the purchase of US$ 12 billion in the spot market with the goal of increasing international reserves to 18% of GDP (the highest figure since 2003). The Central Bank plans to buy US$ 40 million per day over a period of 15 months....

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