Country Insights

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GDP Firmed a Bit in Third Quarter
MEXICO - Report 25 Nov 2014
Executive Summary Late last week the National Statistics Office (Inegi) released its report on third quarter GDP showing that the economy had grown 2.2% above levels of a year earlier. In response to the soft patch the Mexican economy experienced in August, when the monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) grew ...

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Corruption: The Pending Reform
MEXICO - Report 25 Nov 2014
Executive Summary Last Tuesday the wife of President Enrique Peña Nieto, Angélica Rivera, released a statement via YouTube intended to dispel rumors of how she came by a home in Mexico City’s exclusive Lomas de Chapultepec neighborhood, which the media quickly dubbed the “White House” as much for...

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Economic Growth Improves in Q3 2014
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 25 Nov 2014
According to rebased and re-weighted official figures released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.4% on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted and annualized (saa) basis in the third quarter of 2014 (see Graph 1). This, after having n...

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Three crucial snippets on fiscal viability, structural policies and the forint's exchange rate outlook
HUNGARY - In Brief 24 Nov 2014
Fact: In this post, we report on three, relatively lightly reported episodes of Hungarian economic policy, which are more closely connected to each other than they might appear at first glance. These are: 1. On the periphery of the ongoing budget debate, parliament is discussing a draft governmen...

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Oil Sector is Key
COLOMBIA - Forecast 24 Nov 2014
Executive SummaryThe Government is expecting the Current Account Deficit to reach 4% of GDP this year, due to reduced oil exports. However, if oil prices fell to put the average annual price at $93 this year, the 2014 CAD could be as high as 4.4% of GDP. But the impact of lower oil prices could b...

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Political Insights: Week of November 24
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 24 Nov 2014
Ministerial reform begins this week with the announcement of the economic team.The president will sanction a law that changes the debt index for States and Municipalities.In Congress, the government will try to vote on an adjustment to the primary surplus for 2014.In the economy, third quarter GD...

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Inflation Stabilizes Near the Top of the Target Interval
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 24 Nov 2014
The increase of 0.38% in the IPCA-15 for November was below the median of expectations, bringing the rate over the past 12 months to 6.42%, below the top of the target interval (6.5%). All signs are that there are no forces either for a noteworthy acceleration of inflation or of overcoming the ri...

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The King is Dead, Long Live the King!
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 24 Nov 2014
Executive Summary If the nomination, widely indicated in the press, of Joaquim Levy to be the new finance minister turns out to be true, the above proclamation will certainly apply. He’s an economist with a solid academic background and extensive experience in public service, both as treasury ...

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Weekly Tracker: November 23-29
TURKEY - Report 23 Nov 2014
Executive Summary The war against ISIS is marked last week by a couple of victories in Iraq (the capture of Beiji refinery) and Syria (the pushback of ISIS forces from Kobane), but the overall progress is very scant and uneven. In the meantime, Assad and al-Nusra are capturing territory in Syria....

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The Gains To India From Lower Oil Prices
INDIA - Report 21 Nov 2014
Executive Summary The dramatic decline in the price of crude oil has important implications for the Indian economy. Consumption of crude oil is slightly above 6% of GDP, so a halving of the price of crude oil is tantamount to a tax cut of 3 percentage points of GDP. Crude oil consumption divided ...

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Do you have any questions for the Central Bank Governor?
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 21 Nov 2014
Every year around this time we do a Q&A with a senior Philippines government official to close out the year and publish a Special Report with conclusions from the interview. This year, in light of what we think is high market interest at this time in US Fed actions and EM central bank responses, ...

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MPC: Not So Dovish After All…
TURKEY - Report 20 Nov 2014
In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today: weekly repo rate at 8.25%; O/N lending and borrowing rates at 11.25% and 7.5%, respectively. Three aspects of the statement are worth highlighting. First, the Bank now hints at a moderate shift in the composition of...

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The Repo Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 20 Nov 2014
In his inaugural Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) address, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago announced that the committee unanimously voted in favor of no change in the repo rate. Therefore, the repo rate remains at 5.75% per year (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Headline/Core Infl...

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The Prize: A (Not So) Epic (Cyclical) Quest…
TURKEY - Report 19 Nov 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis time, Turkey’s newfound fortune – or The Prize* -- is a collapsing oil price. Since the broad-based market sell-off of early October, Turkish markets rallied strongly. Exuberance has gained traction in recent days, with the markets already entertaining – or seriously debatin...

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Possible Political Crisis Scenarios
MEXICO - Report 19 Nov 2014
Executive Summary The tragedy of Iguala and the broad social movement that has emerged to demand justice for the victims have laid bare grave problems and deficiencies in Mexico’s political system. Outraged by the murder of the students and the direct role played by authorities in the crime, prot...