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Surprise, surprise: bad news on CPI-inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

CPI-inflation for October came out at 0.5% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, up from 3.6% yoy in the previous month, beating Portfolio.hu's 3.7% yoy analyst consensus (and even more our 3.6% yoy forecast, to tell the truth). KSH's core inflation rose to 2.6% yoy, from September's 2.4% yoy, and non-fuel...

GDP growth slides anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

After the disappointment in the previous quarter, today’s news that 3Q18 GDP slowed to 6.1%, a shade below the median analysts’ forecast, was less of a surprise. The pattern of growth was similar to the earlier quarters, i.e., robust domestic demand that was offset by higher net imports. However,...

Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

Three glorious quarters
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Nov 2018

Economic activity grew 7.3% in Q3, from Q3 2017, and cumulative 2018 growth to September was 6.9%. These are extraordinary figures that surprised even the most optimistic observers. Inflation remained very low in September, up 0.08% from August, while accumulated January-September inflation was 1...

CPI-inflation to remain unchanged in October, consumer demand is moderately cooling
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2018

KSH is scheduled to come forward with its CPI-inflation data tomorrow. We expect the headline rate at 0.3% mom, 3.6% yoy, unchanged from September, as a result of the combination of a 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices and 0.2% mom non-fuel inflation. Our fuel-price forecast is the same number by which...

Toxic gold
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Toxic gold President Trump's 1 November 2018 Executive Order (EO) hits Venezuelan gold, a sprawling business for the ruling elites and the main route used to circumvent the August 2017 sanctions. Fear of sanctions will slow the formal gold business in Venezuela, eventually leading to paralysis in...

Macroeconomic conditions in the Jul-Sep quarter
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018 · 1 response

GDP measurement in India is unreliable. We have built a `coincident indicator', which is a linear combination of trusted and well-measured series, to help get a sense of business cycle conditions.We are in a position to have an estimate for the Jul-Aug-Sep 2018 quarter: +3.87% above trend. There ...

Inflation momentum slows
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Headline inflation was unchanged at 6.7% year-on-year in October, reflecting slowing inflation momentum with the month-on-month rate decelerating to 0.3% from 0.9% in the previous month. The easing of price pressures may be traced largely to steady food prices even as prices of non-food items, ti...

Politics: Airport cancellation raises concerns
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2018 · 2 responses

The decision by President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador to cancel the construction of the New Mexico City International Airport in Texcoco following a “public consultation” has sparked major public criticism by business leaders and analysts. The obvious questions are why did López Obrador do ...

The perspectives for Pension Reform this year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Jair Bolsonaro may announce the names of cabinet ministers, as well as details about the structure of each ministry (the number of cabinet ministries should be reduced to 15-17). The president-elect will meet with President Michel Temer in Brasília. Judge Sérgio Moro, the future Minister of Justi...

Economics: The economy slowed slightly in August
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2018

In general, the indicators released in October suggested a slowing of the economy, although some indicators showed improvements over levels of a year earlier. The Mexican economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in August compared to the same month a year earlier, according to the IGAE. The imp...

Challenges facing the new government: Fiscal consolidation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

The new government will have to face huge challenges. It will need to move beyond the current sluggish cyclical recovery as soon as possible and then promote acceleration of potential growth. To achieve these goals, it will have to execute an agenda of reforms, of which the most important necessa...

Present investment flows do not support a major shekel depreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Several economic indicators and surveys point to steady and fairly robust growth in Q318. Robust growth and a tight labor market are rate hike supportive, if inflation continues to be within target. We cannot rule out a rate hike on November 26, despite the fact that the MPC will be without an of...

October inflation: a relative moderation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2018

Consumer price inflation came in at 2.7%, m/m, in October -- higher than the market consensus of around 2%, m/m -- with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 25.2%, from 24.5% in September. Domestic-PPI inflation was 0.9%, which meant a moderate decline in the 12-month rate to 45%, from 46.2%...

Further delay in Brexit talks represents a risk for the EU budget and Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2018

Well, Brexit is not only a problem for the EU budget because it will most probably take away some 9% of the latter's revenues, but also because delays in the conclusion of Brexit talks may cause a serious delay to the upcoming negotiations on the EU budget framework for 2021-2027. Very simply, th...

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