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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Dec 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 17
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Central America databank Nov 26
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Chile databank Nov 28
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Dec 3
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 21
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Ecuador databank Nov 20
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Gulf Countries databank Dec 12
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Hungary databank Nov 24
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Dec 10
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Dec 12
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Nov 14
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South Africa databank Dec 9
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Dec 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Ukraine webinar featuring Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy - What's next after the IMF?
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Jun 2020
Ukraine webinar featuring Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy - What's next after the IMF? Dmtyro Boyarchuk and Vladimir Dubrovskiy discuss the political and economic prospects for Ukraine as it benefits from an IMF Standby Arrangement and faces the Covid-19 pandemic.
COVID 2nd wave lowers our growth forecast
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2020
Industrial output rose 4.4% y/y in May, up 0.5 pps from April, comparable to its pre-pandemic level, and was down just 1.5 pps from Q4 2019. Investment was up 3.9% y/y, and up 3.1 pps from April, down 1.5 pps from Q4. Government investment is the main force lifting overall investment growth. ...
Surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020
The Monetary Board (MB) unexpectedly cut policy rates by 50bp today, bringing the key overnight borrowing rate to 2.25%. It is evident from its statement that the MB is worried about economic growth. Banks are not lending as hoped, with monies parked in the BSP’s deposit facilities rising from a ...
IMF downgrades global and Russia’s growth, while Russia keeps muddling through in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020
As IMF downgraded its 2020 global growth forecast to -4.9% (down from -3.0% previous forecast) Russia couldn’t remain unaffected. It now appears that the Russian GDP is set to shrink by 6.6% this year (down from -5.5%). IMF sees Russia doing better than the US (GDP down by 8.0%) and the EU (-10.2...
MPC: Some restraint, at last
TURKEY · Report · 25 Jun 2020
At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (weekly-repo) at 8.25%, contrary to the consensus expectation (including ours) of another 25-50 bps reduction. Recall that this is the first pause since the MPC started the easing cycle right after the appoi...
Abinader (opposition) could be heading towards a first round victory in July 5
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Jun 2020
In the last three days, the three most reputable polling firms in the country published the results of their most recent polls on electoral preference and all indicate that Luís Abinader (PRM and allies) could be heading towards a first round victory in the July 5 elections. All the surveys were ...
South Africa’s Supplementary Budget 2020 aims to begin the process of drastically consolidating government finances
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jun 2020
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni yesterday placed on the table the country’s 2020 Supplementary Budget, which is described as a bridge to the 2020 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement that is to be presented in October 2020, as is the norm. The previous budget, Budget 2020, was presented almost exact...
Pressure increases for the extension of the R$ 600 aid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jun 2020
After the president of the House of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), defended the extension of emergency aid in the amount of R$ 600 for two more months, and the emergence of the movement “Basic Income That We Want”, which unites 163 civil society movements, today it was the turn of the MDB, thro...
Revising down 2020 oil forecast following new U.S. sanctions
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020
We revise down our oil forecasts for 2020 owing to new sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on June 18 and the chilling effect we expect them to have. Our forecast now has output averaging 465,000 barrels per day in 2020, compared with our previous 20...
Bank of Russia cuts key interest rate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020
On June 19 the Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced the key interest rate 100 basis points to 4.5%. This is the lowest in decades and had been widely anticipated. The Governor of CBR repeatedly told the media earlier in June that a cut of this size was likely. She said that deflationary factors have been...
Weintraub exit continues to generate controversy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2020
The departure from Brazil last Saturday of former Minister of Education Abraham Weintraub continues to cause controversy. Weintraub´s sudden trip to the United States, where he plans to work as director of the World Bank, caused surprised last week – to take office, there are still bureaucratic i...
Former President of Kyrgyzstan jailed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020
On June 23 former President Atambaev was given 11 years in jail for releasing a mob boss during his term of office. The court ruled that Atambaev had a corrupt motive in pardoning the gangster. All of Atambaev's family property is being confiscated. Several of his former cabinet ministers were al...
The MNB unexpectedly cut the base rate and the effective sterilisation rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020
Economists often fail to foresee policy events even for short term. They are normally much better at explaining the rationale of unforeseen policy steps... in hindsight. Somehow we feel to share this fate this time, at least as regards the first part of the foregoing statement.Against our - and a...
South Africa’s Infrastructure Symposium: An ambitious plan to boost investment and reignite growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jun 2020
Today, President Ramaphosa presided over the country’s inaugural Sustainable Infrastructure Development Symposium of South Africa (SIDSSA), a meeting that was promised at the beginning of the year by the Presidency as a culmination of intense stakeholder consultative processes aimed at mobilizing...
Russia to raise tax on the rich
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jun 2020
On June 23 Putin announced that tax on those earning over USD 73 000 a year will rise. Incomes over USD 73 000 will be taxed at 15%. The system will take effect from January 1 2021. Until now the country had a 13% flat income tax. Rumors of this have been circulating for a few days. Higher taxes ...