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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Last rate hold decision was a 5-1 vote
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

The last rate hold decision was a 5-1 vote by the MPC, with 5 members of the opinion that growth is at potential, the labor market tight and inflation expected to reach the lower end of target in about one year. These five were in favor of continued FX intervention as the necessary tool, in light...

Is China going to be forced to lower its growth target?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The IMF is now projecting a 5.5 percent GDP growth rate for 2020, down from the 6.0 percent it projected in January. Officials there say that they expect growth in the first and second quarters to be so bad that it would become all but impossible to...

Russia: Ready for Low Oil Price
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020 · 1 response

As the oil price (Brent) touched $30/bbl on March 9 in the aftermath of OPEC+ agreement falling apart, obvious concerns emerged about the Russian budget and to some extent the balance of payments. The latter is likely to stay positive as the ruble immediately weakened which will pressure imports....

Slowing growth and political instability will likely delay fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Mar 2020

The current account reached 3.8% of GDP in 2019, with net FDI contributing an additional 2.6% of GDP. Despite strong fundamentals, the shekel has weakened by 3.2% (against the basket) in the past two weeks on sharp market volatility. The MPC hinted that some form of monetary loosening is being co...

Russian Ruble crashes
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

On March 9 Russia woke up to the RUB having dropped 10% overnight. The currency has lost value dramatically due to the fall in oil prices. This is a repercussion of the breakdown in Russia's talks with OPEC. Benchmark Brent crude is at USD 33. This is the lowest RUB value since 2016. It is 74.9 t...

​Gulf in panic: Crude and equities crash, and Saudi princes arrested
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020 · 1 response

Oil drops by $10 to the lowest since February 2016 as the OPEC+ deal collapses.A sustained oil dip poses serious risks for Oman, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia.Gulf equities suffered one of their biggest routs on Sunday, including Saudi down 8.3%.The arrest of senior Saudi royals mitigates risks t...

Slowing growth and political instability will likely delay fiscal consolidation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

Recent economic data remain fairly positive, for now: The Business Sector Tendency Survey in February continues to point to expectations for expansion in most sectors, excluding incoming tourism. The Poalim consumer confidence index increased in February. Tax revenue growth in February point to s...

Shaky economics, shoddy ceasefires
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2020

An uneasy calm prevails in the Syrian Province of Idlib, as a result of a ceasefire deal brokered by Messrs. Putin and Erdogan, which few experts expect to last. Turkey is clearly the loser in the resulting arrangement, which consolidates the territorial gains of Assad regime and keeps scared ref...

Russia disagrees with OPEC on production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

On March 6 Russia and OPEC agreed to disagree on pumping less oil. OPEC will produce 1.5 bpd less than before. The OPEC cuts take effect on April 1 and will run to the end of 2020 unless some change is agreed.Russia is not in OPEC but is in OPEC +. Coronavirus has driven down demand. This has hit...

Russia to allow women to work in previously all male roles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Mar 2020

On March 6 it was announced that Russia will end the ban on women working in 356 roles. Presently women are forbidden to be truck drivers, train drivers, automotive mechanics, sailors etc ... The rules date to the Soviet era and are intended to protect female reproductive health. The new rules co...

​A flux economic environment
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Mar 2020

In this report, we are going to review some of the primary political expressions of the last weeks, such as President Alberto Fernández's (AF) statements to Congress during the opening of this year's ordinary sessions and Martin Guzman economic presentation, also made to Congress. The aim is to h...

Tinkoff shares hit by his extradition proceedings
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Mar 2020

On March 6 shares in credit card supplier fell sharply because its owner Oleg Tinkov has been charged with fraud in the United States. Tinkoff is in London fighting extradition. Tinkoff Credit Systems Group (TCS) lost 17% on the London Stock Exchange and 24% in Moscow. Tinkov annouced that he is ...

​Gulf weekly: Russia quits OPEC+, Oman downgraded, coronavirus spreads, rates cut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Russia rejected a proposal to extend and expand the OPEC+ oil cuts, crashing prices. * The coronavirus spread to all Gulf states, an...

Ukrainian Prosecutor-General replaced
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2020

On March 5 the Ukrainian Parliament voted to dismiss the Prosecutor-General Ruslan Ryaboshapka. President Zelensky only appointed him 7 months ago. Zelensky's part Servant of the People was only fairly loyal on this issue. 179/248 Servant of the People deputies voted for the dismissal. The Opposi...

​Biden’s Gulf policies would differ from Trump, but by less than other candidates
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Mar 2020

The consolidation of the Democratic primary around Joe Biden, now almost certain to be the nominee, simplifies the (significant) implications of the elections for the Gulf outlook. Trump is still the favorite, but Biden's policies would offer greater continuity for the Gulf than those of some of ...

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