SOUTH AFRICA - Forecast 05 Jul 2013

Executive Summary We forecast economic activity in South Africa to remain hesitant over the medium- term with inflation adjusted gross domestic product growth recording 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. Although we expect the issue of job creation to feature prominently in political ...

TURKEY - Forecast 05 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryHeightened domestic political risks, combined with signals from the Fed that QE ‘tapering’ may soon begin, changed the macro environment quite significantly since our last Quarterly (of April 10, 2013). On the political front, we now anticipate the risk premiums increasing steadi...

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 05 Jul 2013

The recent presidential announcement of the unification of Russia’s Supreme Court and the Supreme Court of Arbitration of Russia, which contradicts a previously approved strategy, may be an indication of Putin’s work on the Prime Minister’s retirement plan. Dmitry Medvedev was the architect of Ru...

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 05 Jul 2013

Revenue shortfall in the budget in 2013 could reach 1 trillion rubles, the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at a government meeting yesterday. He did not rule out the need to use the Reserve Fund already this year. Major sources of the shortfall are VAT, income tax and privatization program, ...

TURKEY - In Brief 04 Jul 2013

AKP was quick to condemn the Egypt coup, and even seem to encourage the supporters of Moslem Brotherhood to resist. This may be understandable from a moral perspective, but is very likely to result in the loss of Egypt’s alliance to AKP. The coup is major blow to the Sunni Axis. According to stat...

UKRAINE - In Brief 04 Jul 2013

Budget revenues declined 8.1% y/y in June, according to Treasury report on July 3rd.  That was already third month in row state collections have been sliding.  For the first six months of the year state revenues went down 0.3% y/y (against 4.9% y/y 2013 revenues plan).  Such trend confirms our vi...

TURKEY - Report 03 Jul 2013

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 0.8% in June, taking the 12-month rate to 8.3%, from 6.5% in May. Producer prices also rose markedly to 5.2%, y/y, from 2.2% in May.Core inflation (I-index) remained high, but unchanged at 5.6%, y/y (Table 1; Graph 1). The sharp increase in CPI ...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Jul 2013

In May industrial output fell by 2.0%, more than removing the 1.8% growth the previous month and continuing the recent pattern of huge volatility in the monthly growth rates, as can be seen in Graph 1. This volatility is less pronounced in the three-month moving average, calculated on the seasona...

MEXICO - Report 02 Jul 2013

Economic Panorama Background When the GDP results for the first quarter of the year showed a mere 0.8% expansion, expectations for the year were quickly scaled back. The Ministry of Finance lowered its full-year estimate from 3.5% to 3.1%, and most analysts made similar adjustments to their own f...

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Jul 2013

It is amazing how eager is the AKP government is to shoot itself in the foot. State Minister Besir Atalay suggested yesterday that the Gezi Parki is the work of Jewish Diaspora. As efforts to uncover the international conspiracy behind Gezi Parki accelerate, reports indicate that BRSA, Ergenekon ...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Jul 2013

The quality of any forecast depends on the quality of the underlying assumptions. In the Inflation Report for June, one of the Central Bank's forecasts is that inflation in 2014 will decline to 5.4%. This result is based on the assumption that the exchange rate will remain relatively stable at R$...

VENEZUELA - Forecast 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary Our outlook for 2013–2014 is gloomy. Owing to years of costly and unsustainable government policies intensified during the long lead-up to last year’s presidential vote and prolonged by regional elections, Chávez’s death, and the snap election to replace him, the economy shrinks...

MEXICO - Report 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary The idea of seriously opening Mexico’s petroleum industry to private competition is a goal that has long eluded policy makers, and one about which there remains considerable public reticence. But with energy reform (along with a similarly long-denied objective of giving the gove...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 01 Jul 2013

Executive Summary President Dilma Rousseff continues negotiations with both the opposition and her base for a plebiscite on political reform. In addition, there are important topics on the congressional agenda this week. The House may vote to end the additional 10% fine in case of unfair employee...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 01 Jul 2013

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) nudged up to record 51.6 index points in June compared to 50.4 a month earlier (Graph 1 & Table 1). The modest rise in the headline outcome resulted mainly from monthly increases in the two heaviest weighted sub-components of the PMI – busi...