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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

War in the time of corona
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2020 · 1 response

In March, we expect political instability to climb gradually in Turkey with or without the Idlib War, reaching a crescendo if Covid-19 comes a’knocking and forcing “changes” in the tenuous political equilibrium. Peace or ceasefire in Idlib is not a likely scenario. We give Turkey 70% odds to p...

Russian Arctic Sea traffic up fourfold in 3 years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2020

On February 28 the Director of the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration announced that the tonnage shipped via the Russian Arctic has increased 430% in 3 years. The total was 31.5 million tons of goods. The increase is due to several factors. Global warming has made most of the route navigab...

At the crossroad of coronavirus traffic
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Feb 2020

Indonesia is literally at the crossroad of coronavirus traffic. Surrounded by countries that have been affected by the virus, so far there have been no reports of coronavirus infections in Indonesia. This fact has cast a lot of doubt on the credibility of the Indonesian authorities because Chines...

UK buys Russian gold
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Feb 2020

On February 28 RBC (a Russian business newspaper) reported that in 2019 93% of Russian gold sold went to the United Kingdom. The UK purchased USD 5.33 billion of Russian gold. That is an 11-fold increase on 2018. The British spent more on gold from Russia than oil and gas combined. Switzerland bo...

Zelenskiy calls for emergency parliament session, Cabinet reshuffle expected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

President Zelenskiy called for emergency parliament session on Wednesday, March 4, according to the President Office. Everyone is talking about Honcharuk's Cabinet dismissal. Multiple rumors are around. Last week, the media discussed Sergey Tigipko, an ex-official of the Viktor Yanukovytch presid...

Russian appoints trade representative to Ukraine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 25 Russia sent a trade representative to Ukraine. There has been no such person since 2013. It is a sign of a thaw in relations. Russia remains the 3rd biggest export market for Ukraine. Trade has fallen since last year but only by about 10% which is not much considering the conflict.

Russian oil exports up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 28 it was reported that Russian oil exports to the US and UK are up. This is largely due to sanctions on Venezuela. Russia exported 267 million tons of crude in 2019. The biggest purchasers in descending order were China, the Netherlands and Germany. The US was the 12th biggest buyer....

Gulf weekly: Coronavirus spreads in the Gulf, hardliners win in Iran, Lebanon downgraded
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Feb 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, links to further information and the outlook. Headlines include: * Coronavirus is out of control in Iran and has spread to four Gulf states so far. * Many flights have been cancelled, and Saudi is su...

No surprise in recent risk evaluations: keep an eye on fiscal consolidation! …and the possible consequences of the virus in a logistics-oriented economy
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Two rating agencies and the IMF visited Panama at the beginning of the month. Fitch revised the outlook of the Republic to “negative” from “neutral”, concluding that public sector finances might weaken in the medium term, but the agency maintained its investment grade valuation for the Republic. ...

A strong ending, with many caveats
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Today’s GDP data showed that the Turkish economy expanded by a stronger than expected 6% in Q4, y/y, and some 1.9%, q/q. Together with some revisions to back data, this meant that the economy grew by 0.9% in 2019 as a whole. The key driver of annual growth in the fourth quarter from the expenditu...

Pressures build
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Back from his international tour, Juan Guaidó now faces the challenge of following up on the road map settled on with international allies with political action at home: step up pressures so that presidential and parliamentary elections are held this year and meet international standards as to po...

Virus and China’s demand for capital
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

China is introducing a series of measures to counter the downward effects of the virus on GDP growth. These policies will increase China’s demand for capital. We examine the expected sources of capital raise, domestically and internationally, and analyze what this means for the capacity of the st...

Turkey and Russia at daggers drawn
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

On February 27 a Syrian air strike killed 33 Turkish soldiers. The Turks are in Syria against the express wishes of the Syrians. The Syrians would presumably only have done this with the approval of the Russians who are their main allies.The Turks have moved thousands of more troops into Syria. R...

Revamp for Russia's ruling party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2020

The United Russia Party is going to merge with another pro-Putin party the All Russian People's Front. This was reported in Meduza (a major Russian magazine) on February 26. Dmitry Medvedev, the former Prime Minister, will no longer be leader of United Russia due to his unpopularity. The new part...

Hunting in the zoo
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

When it comes to surprise, the January press conference to present the revised fiscal outlook did not disappoint. It was announced that the 2019 deficit was 2.5% of GDP -- far below the ceiling imposed by the relevant External Committee, and down from 3% in 2018. That would have been good news, e...

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