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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Taking off again
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2018

Hyperinflation took a break in October, in line with what we anticipated would happen after the September shock. We revised down our October estimate to 208%, from 224% in our previous report. The monthly inflation rate slowed significantly in October from 232 percent in September but, neverthele...

Local election dilemmas
TURKEY · Report · 11 Nov 2018

With less than five months left to critical municipal elections, AKP is rapidly losing support from voters. This means that it shall henceforth focus on the economy and elections, trying to preserve the status quo in foreign policy. The need to balance Kurdish and nationalist votes require tou...

China’s infrastructure model is broken
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Nov 2018

China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through invest...

South African state-owned enterprises: A drag on fiscal position and a threat to financial stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Nov 2018

For sustainable economic growth, development and employment creation, nations need a financial system that is “resilient to systemic shocks, facilitates efficient financial intermediation, and mitigates the macroeconomic costs of disruptions in such a way that confidence in the system is maintain...

At a turning point?
ECUADOR · Presentation · 08 Nov 2018 · 4 responses

Ecuador is at a turning point – opportunities include a willingness to change from Correa’s economic model, optimistic perspectives on the oil industry and better relationships with trade partners. Risks include lack of political coherence and a weakening of Moreno’s popularity, as well as the po...

Surprise, surprise: bad news on CPI-inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

CPI-inflation for October came out at 0.5% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, up from 3.6% yoy in the previous month, beating Portfolio.hu's 3.7% yoy analyst consensus (and even more our 3.6% yoy forecast, to tell the truth). KSH's core inflation rose to 2.6% yoy, from September's 2.4% yoy, and non-fuel...

GDP growth slides anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

After the disappointment in the previous quarter, today’s news that 3Q18 GDP slowed to 6.1%, a shade below the median analysts’ forecast, was less of a surprise. The pattern of growth was similar to the earlier quarters, i.e., robust domestic demand that was offset by higher net imports. However,...

Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

Three glorious quarters
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Nov 2018

Economic activity grew 7.3% in Q3, from Q3 2017, and cumulative 2018 growth to September was 6.9%. These are extraordinary figures that surprised even the most optimistic observers. Inflation remained very low in September, up 0.08% from August, while accumulated January-September inflation was 1...

CPI-inflation to remain unchanged in October, consumer demand is moderately cooling
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2018

KSH is scheduled to come forward with its CPI-inflation data tomorrow. We expect the headline rate at 0.3% mom, 3.6% yoy, unchanged from September, as a result of the combination of a 1.4% mom rise by fuel prices and 0.2% mom non-fuel inflation. Our fuel-price forecast is the same number by which...

Toxic gold
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Toxic gold President Trump's 1 November 2018 Executive Order (EO) hits Venezuelan gold, a sprawling business for the ruling elites and the main route used to circumvent the August 2017 sanctions. Fear of sanctions will slow the formal gold business in Venezuela, eventually leading to paralysis in...

Macroeconomic conditions in the Jul-Sep quarter
INDIA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018 · 1 response

GDP measurement in India is unreliable. We have built a `coincident indicator', which is a linear combination of trusted and well-measured series, to help get a sense of business cycle conditions.We are in a position to have an estimate for the Jul-Aug-Sep 2018 quarter: +3.87% above trend. There ...

Inflation momentum slows
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Headline inflation was unchanged at 6.7% year-on-year in October, reflecting slowing inflation momentum with the month-on-month rate decelerating to 0.3% from 0.9% in the previous month. The easing of price pressures may be traced largely to steady food prices even as prices of non-food items, ti...

Politics: Airport cancellation raises concerns
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2018 · 2 responses

The decision by President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador to cancel the construction of the New Mexico City International Airport in Texcoco following a “public consultation” has sparked major public criticism by business leaders and analysts. The obvious questions are why did López Obrador do ...

The perspectives for Pension Reform this year and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2018

Jair Bolsonaro may announce the names of cabinet ministers, as well as details about the structure of each ministry (the number of cabinet ministries should be reduced to 15-17). The president-elect will meet with President Michel Temer in Brasília. Judge Sérgio Moro, the future Minister of Justi...

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