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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Assessing the impact of the Rosneft Trading SA sanction
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The sanction imposed on Rosneft Trading SA (RTSA) puts 600 kbd of Venezuelan exports at risk (80 percent of total exports), impairing Venezuela’s ability to import much needed fuel and inputs for refineries and to service its debt to China. Pdvsa is seeking for new traders to replace RTSA but fur...

Coronavirus effects may soon be contained in China
CHINA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak that began in late January was one of the most severe exogenous shocks in China’s recent history, especially since it overlapped with the Chinese New Year holiday, which involves the largest population migration in human history. As of February 26th, some 80,428 cases had...

South Africa’s Budget 2020 makes substantial moves to reduce the bloated public sector wage bill
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Our 2019 Budget report’s title indicated that tough decisions had been made while at the same time asking if it was enough, i.e., were the measures taken enough to improve South Africa’s fiscus or at least halt its deterioration. It’s a year later, and we all know it was not enough. Today Finance...

Russia to hold referendum
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

On February 26 Moscow announced that a referendum will be held on April 22 on constitutional reform. The people will be asked to approve enhanced powers for Parliament at the cost of the presidency. The government will make sure it gets the result that it wants from the electorate. The challenge ...

MNB: No measure, but a reworded statement issued yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

In line with expectation, the Monetary Council announced no measure whatsoever after yesterday's rate-setting meeting. However, they issued a significantly reworded statement.Reading through the communiqué, one has the feeling that the Council simply met the likely expectation that a new situatio...

Fiscal reform’s painful birth depresses growth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Feb 2020

Costa Rica’s 2019 economic evolution was marked by the fiscal problem, and the political environment surrounding it. In the reform and its entry into law in early December 2018, uncertainty about its implementation, and the willingness of the Executive to comply with it extended negative expectat...

Mid-Week Update
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2020

I have not titled this Market Brief, because too many issues are on the agenda of the markets, which makes it very difficult to find a common threat to express in a brief headline. They are mostly negative. These are Idlib, Libya, Covid-19 CBRT head Uysal’s speech Bursa Joint Chambers of Industry...

Chile: Winter is coming
CHILE · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

The phrase, made popular by the series Game of Thrones, relates to the call to be prepared for the hardships of winter. Although most of Chile is still enjoying warm summer temperatures, the beginning of March, associated with students returning to class, is a reminder that winter is indeed comin...

Review of the inflation targeting framework
INDIA · Report · 25 Feb 2020

Inflation targeting began in India in February 2015. It was the first time in India’s history that the central bank had an objective: prior to this, it followed a “multiple objectives, multiple indicators, multiple instruments” approach that constituted all discretion and no rules. The first f...

Saudis might end oil solidarity with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

On February 20 the Wall Street Journal claimed that the Saudis are mulling whether to sever its oil production pact with Russia. The Russians have declined to reduce oil production in view of coronavirus. Russia is not in OPEC but is in OPEC+. Riyadh asked that production be cut by 600 000 bpd. C...

Correa's chances for 2021 are still alive
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Feb 2020

The political party that supports Correa, Fuerza Compromiso Social, was able to maintain its electoral participation for 2021. Thus, even though Correa cannot run for president in the upcoming election, he could register his name for vice president. However, his chances are at odds with the ac...

Belarus and Russia close to agreement on oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020 · 1 response

On February 21 an agreement was reached in principle regarding oil prices. President Lukashenko of Belarus met the Governor of Archangelsk - a Russian city. Russian oil companies will sell oil to Belarus at a discount of USD 2 per ton. This will still leave Belarus worse off than before. Neverthe...

Current VP Cedeño appointed as PLD vice presidential candidate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

Yesterday, Gonzalo Castillo, the PLD presidential candidate announced that his ballot companion would be the current vice president Margarita Cedeño. The announcement was surprising and helps to energize the PLD, which has been on the defensive in recent weeks. Cedeño is very popular. Surveys sho...

US says it carried out nuclear attack drill
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2020

On February 21 the Pentagon announced that it recently conducted a practice nuclear attack on Russia. It was unusual of the US to have announced this. Russian politicians have riposted by saying that the US action is aggressive and bound to heighten tensions.The United States disturbed Moscow ear...

Economics: Clash of views on energy policy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2020

Pemex’s performance in the coming months remains the determining factor for the future of Mexico’s economy. During the Energy Mexico 2020 Congress, specialists and sector representatives of the oil, gas, power and renewables industries conducted a thorough analysis of the state of both internatio...

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