Country Insights

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Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Sep 2015
he CNI/Ibope poll released today, September 30, showed a stable evaluation of Dilma Rousseff’s government. The positive percentage ("excellent/good"), regular, and negative ("bad/terrible") fluctuated within the margin of error, which is two percentage points

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South Africa’s Economic Freedom: Government Consumption and Inflation
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 30 Sep 2015
In mid-September 2015 the Fraser Institute released its annual report on the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) for the year 2013, and South Africa’s global ranking had slipped from 93 in 2012 to 96 in 2013. To construct the EFW index, forty-two data points are utilized in measuring the degree o...

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Which election outcome will the markets like?
TURKEY - In Brief 30 Sep 2015 1 response

An esteemed reader wrote to us


What do you think would market responses be, based on your views and the views of your client base into the elections, to the different plausible electoral outcomes, especially:

- AKP simple majority


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A Balance of Payment Crisis in the Making?
ARGENTINA - Report 30 Sep 2015
After the primary elections in August and with less than a month to go for the general presidential election on October 25th, political analysis shifted back to polls, in an attempt to anticipate the awaited outcome. Yet, despite the fact that more than a month passed since the primaries and many...

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The Political Economy of the SA Steel Industry
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 30 Sep 2015
Schumpeter famously argued that innovation along with the destruction of old technologies are fundamental in the capitalist economy, its growth and technical change over time. Hence in a capitalist economy, profit-seeking firms (and industries) innovate for growth and survival. Globalization, esp...

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The Inflation Threat
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - Report 29 Sep 2015
Russia’s 2015 economic slump will be deeper than previously expected, due to the unfavorable external climate and the drop in oil prices. GDP contracted by 4.6% y/y in Q2 (atop a 2.2% contraction in Q1), on decline of domestic demand and investment. Household demand has been stalled by a 10% fall...

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Exports to Haiti threatened by bans
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 28 Sep 2015
In June and July economic activity accelerated. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE for its Spanish acronym) estimated the increase in production for June at 6.5%, and for July at a surprising 7.5%. Inflation in August with respect to July, as measured by the percentage change in ...

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Week of September 28
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 28 Sep 2015
For President Dilma Rousseff, this will be one of the most important weeks since her reelection. She is betting big on ministerial reform to rekindle dialog with her governing coalition, especially the PMDB. In Congress, she faces a difficult test: voting on the vetoes with a fiscal impact of R$ ...

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Business Credit Decelerating Intensely
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 28 Sep 2015
Companies are facing serious difficulties in obtaining financing. New loans to firms have been declining since the first months of 2014, and this trend has been worsening recently. The increasing Brazil risk and loss of investment grade makes access to foreign credit harder. This means the recess...

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Reading the Anecdotal Evidence
INDONESIA - Report 28 Sep 2015
Making a good judgment about the Indonesian economy based only on the official statistics is sometimes inadequate. At the same time, using only anecdotal evidence to measure the direction of the economy can also be misleading. However, using some anecdotal evidence to enrich the official data may...

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El Salvador: Slower and Slower
CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Sep 2015
Growth in El Salvador continues to be sluggish, though there are also glimmers of recovery. Consumer prices have fallen in annualized terms for the eight months to August, leaving prices down 2%. The fiscal deficit problem persists, and political polarization has only hampered efforts to forge co...

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Volkswagen to have an impact on Hungary
HUNGARY - In Brief 28 Sep 2015

It would be terribly difficult to tell at this point , what exactly the effects of the ongoing Volkswagen case will be. However, it is increasingly for sure that the global impact will be significant and, more importantly for us, Hungary is unlikely to remain unaffected, because of its sign...

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Weekly Tracker: Sep 27-Oct 3
TURKEY - Report 27 Sep 2015
It wasn’t a Happy Id of Sacrifice for Turkey, as PKK killed 6 security personnel and wounded many. In the run-up to the November 1st elections, we predict more terror attacks and a vicious insurgency in the Kurdish cities. Meanwhile, AKP is losing support as a result of its crackdown to put down ...

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Business cycle conditions
INDIA - Report 25 Sep 2015
While many people expected conditions to change under the new government, the business cycle downturn that began in Q1 2012 has not ended. The engine of earnings growth in large firms has not revived. There are concerns about credit stress in large firms, with growing interest payments and declin...

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Too skinny for a diet
CHILE - Report 25 Sep 2015
For the past several quarters the Central Bank has faced a dilemma. On one hand, inflation has run relatively high for quite a long time. On the other, economic activity is sluggish, and there is no sign of a recovery. Apparently the Board cares more about short-run inflation; the Board announced...