Country Insights

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Where Has All the Spending Gone?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - Report 17 Dec 2013
Executive SummaryPublic investment spending is dragging once again, with probable negative implications for demand, employment and growth. And the 2013 budget deficit is likely to be smaller than expected, though tax revenues are also below target. Tax revenues have been persistently falling shor...

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The Challenges Ahead
MEXICO - Report 17 Dec 2013
Executive Summary As we near the end of what could be described as the most congressionally productive year the Mexican government has enjoyed in at least two decades, there is a bit of irony in the fact that the administration that has presided over such an ambitious reform agenda has lower appr...

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Economics: Looking for the FDI Tide to Turn
MEXICO - Report 17 Dec 2013
Executive Summary Last week the Mexican Congress passed energy reform amendments to the constitution with the support of the PAN and PRI, and over the opposition of the PRD. The most significant aspect of the reform is the extent to which it opens the industry to private investment through a broa...

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Monetary Policy: Making a Normal Day Tighter
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Dec 2013
Today's MPC decision brought no surprises on the "three policy rates" -- the so-called two stable rates (repo rate of 4.5% and primary dealer rate of 6.75%) as well as the marginal funding rate (of 7.75%) -- they all remained unchanged. But by reducing the amount of liquidity provided at the "che...

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AKP vs. Gulen Church: Tooth for tooth
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Dec 2013 3 responses
Turkey was shaken to the roots today, as a nation-wide graft operation was launched, with reportedly -The sons of Ministers Muammer Guler and Zafer Caglayan, -Turkey’s most famous real estate developer Mr. Ali Agaoglu, -Halkbank GM Suleyman Aslan taken into custody. (No names confirmed officially...

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Government infrastructure spending down
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 17 Dec 2013 2 responses
The papers today reported a 25.7% "surge" in government infrastructure spending from January to October. This is not good news. In fact, based on our calculations, the cumulative figure hides a 12.7% decline in October infra expenditures, an acceleration of the 7% fall in September. We had occasi...

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Politics: A New Cycle of Reforms
CHILE - Report 16 Dec 2013
Yesterday Michelle Bachelet, candidate of the coalition Nueva Mayoria, was elected President of Chile with a 62.16% of the preferences against a 37.83% of Evelyn Matthei. In the second round there was a significant reduction in participation compared to the first round. Under the newly implemente...

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Political Insights: Week of December 16
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Dec 2013
This is the final week of the year for legislative activity in Congress. The Union Budget is the main item on the agenda. The government’s goal is to conclude voting on the budget bill this week. If the vote is postponed until February, there will be problems for the government, since electoral l...

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Economic Activity: What Do The Most Recent Data Indicate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Dec 2013
In the past few days two indicators of economic activity have been published: real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE; and the IBC-Br, which is the proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank. Both indicate growth in October in relation to September. These figures partly allay the negative pictu...

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Bachelet is elected President
CHILE - In Brief 15 Dec 2013
Today Michelle Bachelet was elected President of Chile with a 62.16% of the preferences against a 37.83% of Evelyn Matthei. The presidential election exhibited a significant reduction in participation compared to the first round. Under the newly implemented voluntary voting system, of the 13.6 mi...

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The Price of Gasoline
VENEZUELA - In Brief 15 Dec 2013
Shortly after the December 8 elections, the government started hinting at a gasoline price increase coupled with new subsidies to public transport. Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresident, and Haiman El Troudi, Minister of Land Transportation, placed the topic on the public agenda. Rafael Ramirez,...

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A turning point?
UKRAINE - In Brief 15 Dec 2013 2 responses
Yesterday Victor Yanukovitch dismissed three officials who were allegedly responsible for bloody crackdown on the night of November 30. Those three were (a) Oleksandr Popov, Head of Kyiv city administration (Kyiv was not allowed to have major elections and Popov was effectively the ruler of the c...

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Weekly Tracker: December 15-21
TURKEY - Report 15 Dec 2013
Executive Summary New polls show AKP having dropped to 46%, but the party is certain to win most big-city races. PKK leaders are threatening war once again, while Kurdish provinces erupted in protest in response to alleged police killings of three citizens. The Ergenekon-Sledgehammer coup plottin...

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CNI/Ibope Poll: Positive Evaluations Of The Dilma Administration Increase
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 13 Dec 2013
A new CNI/Ibope poll was released today on the Dilma Rousseff administration. Positive evaluations (“great/good”) increased from 37% to 43% (6 points) from September to December, while “regular” evaluations fell from 39% to 35% (4 points) during the same period.Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad...

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Putin’s state of the nation address: main reasons for economic slowdown are internal
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 12 Dec 2013
Today President Putin delivered Russia’s made an annual address to the Federal Assembly. Traditionally the speech covers various topics and includes presidential suggestions to the Government. It was widely expected that major part of the address will cover economy and will include views on stimu...