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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Labor Market: Slow, but steady improvement
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2020

After a disappointing third quarter, the labor market picked up in the fourth quarter, with net creation of an annualized flow of nearly 2 million formal jobs. Although that growth pace cannot be extrapolated to the coming quarters, there are many evidences that the recovery of the job market wil...

What does the virus response tell us about China’s economic policy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The Chinese government’s response to the virus tells us a lot about how economic policy will play out over the coming decade. Local decisions, blocking information flow, have given way to a mass campaign on a national scale. However, this suggests the opposite of effective policymaking – the Stat...

The labor market remains tight, supportive of rate stability
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The labor market remains tight, supportive of some wage pressure and rate stability. Consumer confidence has stabilized in recent months following an improvement in recent years. Apparently, January data resulted in a large fiscal surplus, supporting a decline in the deficit/GDP ratio.

Poor inflation print, but unlikely to stop the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 1.4% in January, taking the 12-month rate to 12.2%, up from 11.8% a month earlier. Domestic-PPI inflation also rose to a 12-month rate of 8.8%, up from 7.4% in December (Table 1; Graph 1).Comparing contributions with the same month of the previous ye...

Fear
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Feb 2020

On February 2, as news broke of its first death from the coronavirus, the Philippine government decided to restrict entry of travelers coming from China, Hongkong and Macau. Those covered by the temporary ban include all foreign nationals without permanent resident visas who are either coming in ...

New week, new risks
TURKEY · Report · 02 Feb 2020 · 1 response

Another critical phase is approaching in the seemingly never-ending Syrian War. Assad’s forces captured the second largest town in the war-torn Syrian province, Maraat-al-Numan, possibly readying to lay siege to the capitol Idlib city. Speaking in Ankara, President Erdogan warned that Turkey woul...

SAUDI: Key Themes for the Saudi economy in 2020
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Feb 2020

​Stimulus measures set to fade in 2020 as authorities balance debt sustainability and growth. Saudi's role as a stabilizer in the oil market isn’t likely to change but it will be challenged. Reform agenda is not over but likely taking a pause in 2020 due to high fiscal cost and limited successes.

Fidesz' membership will not be discussed by the EPP Political Assembly early next week
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Feb 2020

The European People's Party's Political Assembly, which is to meet on February 3-4, will not discuss Fidesz' membership in the party family. This was made clear by EPP president Donald Tusk at a meeting of the EPP's parliamentary faction on Wednesday. There is no clear majority within the EPP on ...

​Gulf weekly: Coronavirus hurts oil, Houthis strike Saudi, Trump releases peace plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The OPEC+ meeting may be brought forward as oil falls to $56 on coronavirus concerns. * Gulf states gave a muted response to Trump’s Middle East ...

Guaidó retakes the initiative
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jan 2020

Juan Guaidó embarked on a surprise international tour to consolidate international support and retake the political initiative. The opposition coalition he leads wants not only fair legislative elections later this year but also a presidential election redo. The only way Guaidó can strengthen his...

Russian incomes up
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Jan 2020

The Russian Statistics Agency announced on January 28 that disposable income increased by 0.8% in real terms in 2019. The majority of the increase came in the third quarter. This was a pleasant surprise after incomes dipped 1.8% in Q1. The overall increase is modest but still very welcome after i...

The Year of the Tin Rat: What can we expect?
PANAMA · Report · 30 Jan 2020

This month China celebrates “the Year of the Tin Rat,” which promises wealth and welfare for families and businesses. The outlook for 2020 for Panama is consistent with this expectation, according to most analysts. The reasons for this optimism (and its downside) are discussed in our report. Posi...

The NBU slashes prime rate by 250 bps down to 11%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2020

On January 30th, the NBU Board cut prime rate by 250 basic points down to 11%. Consumer inflation slowing to +4.1% ytd in 2019, as well as permanent complaints about expensive loans made the downward rate revision inevitable. At the press-release the NBU mentioned it’s new target of 7% for prime ...

American-Israeli pardoned by Putin
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2020

A dual US-Israeli citizen serving a prison sentence for drug possession in Russia was freed on January 30 by order of President Putin. The woman, Naama Issachar, had 9 grams of cannabis in her bag when she transited a Russian airport. Why has Issachar been set at liberty when since April 2019 Mos...

With trade uncertainty eased, 6% growth target can be achieved
CHINA · Forecast · 30 Jan 2020

The United States and China on January 16th struck a "phase one" trade deal, at least easing uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations. Exports rose 5% y/y in 2019, down 2.8 pps from 2018, while imports rose 1.2% y/y, down 11.6 pps. GDP rose 6.1% y/y last year, down 0.5 pps fro...

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