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Notes from Ningbo
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Nov 2019

We just spent three days in Ningbo, China’s largest port city, 200 km from Shanghai, visiting finance companies, banks, and regulators. Four quick conclusions: 1) The trade war is having less economic impact, even on a port city, than one would expect. 2) The crackdown on shadow banking and un...

US alleges Russia covered up chemical attack in Syria
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2019

On November 28 the United States claimed that Russia had helped to cover up the use of prohibited toxic weapons in Syria. The US has accused Russia of doing just that many times before. The Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had found against Russia. However, two OPCW scie...

Ukraine and Russia close to prisoner exchange
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2019

On November 28 Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange prisoners with Russia freeing 100 in return for 250. Strictly speaking it is the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine who are releasing prisoners and not Russia herself. In September 2019 the two countries exchanged prisoners. Another prisoner exchang...

Car wash operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2019

Following the votes of the rapporteur and the reviewer, the President of the Eighth Panel of the TRF 4th Region, Judge Thompson Flores, in closing today's trial, voted preliminarily against the annulment of the sentence on the case of the Atibaia ranch based on the order in which the final allega...

QATAR: Soccer and a summit could resolve Gulf dispute within weeks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Nov 2019

* We are more optimistic than we have been in two years for a breakthrough in the Gulf dispute. * Football teams from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE have just arrived in Doha for the Gulf Cup. * If their citizens also attend as fans and the tone is friendly, this will build positive momentum. *...

Cyprus removes citizenship from Russian oligarch
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2019

On November 26 it was announced that Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska has had his Cypriot citizenship revoked. Deripaska owns an aluminium company which was subject to US sanctions. The sanctions have been eased off over the past year.In 2013 Cyprus began a citizenship by investment scheme. Cit...

A Lone Ranger, no silver bullets
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

In the last two months, the Colombian government has lost every single political contest: it declined dramatically in the polls, where president Duque’s favorability is going steadily south; then it was defeated in the regional elections, where Uribe’s party lost its key strongholds; then in the ...

PPI deflation may be worrisome
CHINA · Report · 26 Nov 2019

Major economic indicators were still mostly falling in October. Industrial output was up 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment was up 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.2% y/y, and the real growth rate of this indicator was 4.9% y/y, d...

New forint weakness record at EURHUF 337.24 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019

The forint was never as weak against the euro as this morning. Despite some inching back to 336.5, which was today's fixing, it is now 2% down against the euro since the start of the month, and that appears as a clear case of underperformance within the region. There does not seem to be any exter...

Will Kolomoyskiy derail the IMF deal?
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Nov 2019

When we drafted this report, the IMF mission left Kyiv signaling that the deal was not there. Before that, things in Ukraine seemed to have been moving right along. The Verkhovna Rada had approved a package of very important bills that includes unbundling Naftogaz and reinstating the illegal enr...

​Military tests S-400 radar and American resolve
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019 · 1 response

First I must apologize for skipping my contribution to our hallowed Weekly Report on account of a writer’s cramp. Literally, my mind stopped, which happens to the best of us, and I ain’t one of them. Anyway, had I written my share, the first essay would have been the suddenly rising chatter about...

Russia and Turkey agree more missile sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Nov 2019

On November 26 Rosoborexport - the Russian State arms exporter - announced that it planned to sign a new contract with Turkey to sell S-400 missiles to that country. Turkey bought a batch of S-400 surface to air missiles earlier this year. The United States was incensed that a NATO country should...

Perspective for the external accounts and exchange rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Nov 2019

With the decline of global growth and commodity prices, Brazil’s export performance has been weakening, reducing the trade surpluses. This portends a significant increase in the current account deficit in 2020. The decline in the terms of trade and increase of the accumulated current account defi...

The first round of Constitutional reforms was a failure… but there is hope for a positive outcome next year
PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The economy is growing slowly but steadily (3.25% through September according to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity). The 2020 budget is consistent with this pattern and therefore will not be expansive, given the limitations of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (a 2.75% deficit ratio for 2020). T...

Strikes, demonstrations on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2019

The voting agenda in the Senate includes a bill that allows for arrests following a conviction by a higher court. On Tuesday, the TSE decides whether it will accept electronic signatures for the creation of political parties. On Wednesday, the STF resumes analysis on access to confidential data. ...

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