RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - Report 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but ensured a small voter turnout and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may make his position in the elite hierarchy become less prominent. His main opponent Alexey Navalny won over a quarter of all votes despite having...

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 03 Oct 2013

Moody’s raised today the Philippine government credit from Ba1 to an investment grade of Baa3, an action that would have been dismissed as long-delayed were it not for the positive outlook that came with it.  The positive outlook “reflects the expectation of continued economic outperformance by t...

TURKEY - Report 03 Oct 2013

At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tob...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 02 Oct 2013

Former Governor José Serra (PSDB-SP) has decided to remain in the PSDB.There was a possibility of Serra's going to the PPS.The national president of the PPS, Rep. Roberto Freire (SP), had offered the party to the former governor to run for president again in 2014. Freire claims that “He (Serra) c...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Oct 2013

Industrial production in August was stable, causing a decline of 1.2% in the 12-month variation (Graph 1). With this, the carry-over to the third quarter reached -1.7%, meaning that for output to remain stable in the quarter, growth in September will have to be 5.1%, which is highly unlikely. In ...

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Oct 2013

The Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Syria (ISIS) issued a web-based threat to Ankara to re-open two border crossings, Bab-el Hava and Bab-ul Salam, by 8 October or face nationwide suicide bomb attacks.  The threat was issued on a website believed to have in the past communicated such messages...

ARGENTINA - Report 02 Oct 2013

This report reviews some factors that are generating political and economic uncertainty for the immediate future. They are the upcoming midterm elections, the legal battle with the holdouts, the dubious 2014 Budget, and the government’s interventionist stance. Although none seems important enough...

MEXICO - Report 01 Oct 2013

Executive SummaryA series of legally binding budget deadlines, legislative calendars and partisan political calculations pose the possibility of a congressional train wreck if the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the leaders of the main political parties fail to find common grou...

CHILE - In Brief 30 Sep 2013

President Sebastián Piñera announced yesterday the main fiscal figures of the 2014 budget proposal. Public spending budget is expected to increase 3.9 percent in real terms in 2014 while structural fiscal deficit is expected to fall to 1% of GDP in 2014. The 2014 Budget Law will be sent today to ...

TURKEY - In Brief 30 Sep 2013

I defer a Market Brief on Erdogan’s Reform Package till Tuesday, because of what I stated in the Weekly Tracker:“The content of the reform initiative is not the most relevant issue about its impact on Turkey’s fractious political landscape. It is the reception by Kurds and Alevites that count her...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 30 Sep 2013

A week of intense political negotiation, as Saturday is the deadline for the creation and membership of political parties for the 2014 elections. On Tuesday, the TSE examines the creation of Rede, Marina Silva’s party. Main Topics on the October Agenda Politically, the beginning of the month of O...

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEl Salvador’s next president won’t have an easy time of it. His major challenge, after taking office next June, will be to restoke growth, dragging along at about 2% since 2009, when real GDP declined by 3.1%. Our 2013-14 forecast points to more of the same. A key element will be...

TURKEY - Report 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryMonday is a landmark day in Turkish politics, when PM Erdogan unveils the Reform Package. Contents will not satisfy either the Kurdish or the Alevite leadership, but the masses may be more sympathetic. A strange brawl during a soccer derby appears related to Gezi Parki, proving o...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 27 Sep 2013

Dilma Recovers Popularity and Improves her Position Ahead of the Upcoming Succession Race The most recent CNI/Ibope on evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff administration revealed that her approval (good/very good) increased six percentage points (from 31% to 37%) from July to September.The “regular...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The objective of this work is to discuss the empirical evidence on the interference of fiscal policy in monetary policy. We compare various fiscal policy measures and find that the one that performs the best by far (including in comparison with the structural primary surplus, pr...