PHILIPPINES - In Brief 18 Mar 2015

We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the...

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Mar 2015

According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit in the current account narrowed to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2014, from 5.8% in 2013. Likewise, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP shrank by 0.7 of a percentage point bet...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Mar 2015

Crisis unravels Dilma’s image, and disapproval reaches 62%

Nearly three months after the beginning of Dilma’s second term, disapproval of the president reached 62%, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, published today.Only 13% of voters consider the government “great/good”.Si...

VENEZUELA - Forecast 17 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns nega...

TURKEY - Report 17 Mar 2015

As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account d...

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Mar 2015

In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Mar 2015

The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House ...

PERU - Report 16 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times.

Dialogue with the opp...

TURKEY - Report 15 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

In this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday.

We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader unc...

RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 13 Mar 2015

CBR decided to today to cut its key rate by 100 b.p., from 15% to 14% exactly