Country Insights

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Q3 Woes Continue in Spite of Q2 Surprises
COLOMBIA - Report 27 Sep 2013
Executive Summary Surprisingly strong Q2 GDP results were driven by fast-expanding agriculture, construction and social services, and general economic activity grew by a healthy 4.2%. The big shock was in manufacturing, which expanded by 1.2%, though leading indicators had suggested a negative re...

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Koc Tender Officially Cancelled
TURKEY - In Brief 26 Sep 2013
In the war between AKP and its alleged secularist conspiratorial nemesis Koc Group, the first blood was officially drawn today. In a Defense Procurement Committee meeting chaired by PM Erdogan, the US$1.5 billion MilGem tender (for the construction of four Navy vessels) have been canceled on acco...

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Critical Choices
UKRAINE - Forecast 25 Sep 2013
Executive Summary November will be a critical month for Ukraine. The results of the Eastern Partnership Summit will address many lingering questions. We will soon know how serious the authorities are about releasing jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; how likely Ukraine is to cooperate...

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MED Published Revised Forecast for 2014-2016
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 25 Sep 2013
Ministry for Economic Development (MED) published full details of its medium-term economic forecast for 2014-2016. Main parameters of the forecast were announced several weeks ago but only yesterday full updated version became public. MED expects that Russian economy will grow 1.8% in 2013 but wi...

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Going Into Extractivism to Get Out From Extractivism
ECUADOR - Report 25 Sep 2013
Executive SummaryEcuadorians do not understand why President Correa is enduring the evident political cost of pushing for Legislative approval to exploit the ITT camps. The $2.5b per year in revenues for around 20 years, seem insufficient to achieve the economic transformation the government link...

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Import Uptick
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 25 Sep 2013
The statistics bureau reported today an 8.7% increase in July imports due largely to a 30% gain in imports of electronics materials.  This supports feedback we received earlier from local electronics makers who reported seeing improving export sales.  July total import growth is the highest so fa...

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Is it Really Over?
INDONESIA - Report 24 Sep 2013
Executive Summary Calming good news in the media seems to have quelled late-August/mid-September financial jitters in the Indonesian financial market; at least, the long lines in front of the exchange houses have dwindled. We now see light at the end of the tunnel. The first bit of good new...

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Holes in Pemex Fiscal Reform
MEXICO - Report 24 Sep 2013
Executive Summary In recent days several of the tax ideas contained in the fiscal reform proposals made by President Enrique Peña Nieto have become the focus of considerable discussion and criticism. These include the application of the VAT tax to school tuitions, an idea the Chamber of Deputies ...

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Fiscal Policy Showdown
MEXICO - Report 24 Sep 2013
Executive Summary Key elements in President Enrique Peña’s fiscal reform proposals have run up against considerable resistance in the two weeks since they were unveiled. Powerful business leaders and associations were quick to criticize the initiative for not going as far as they had expected, es...

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Weather and Economy Heat Up
CHINA - Report 24 Sep 2013
Executive Summary China was hit by heat waves in July and August – with the weather in August even hotter, in many regions, than in July. Electricity generation rose 13.4% y/y over the month, its fastest climb in years. The economy seems to be heating up too. Industrial output growth also r...

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Political Insights: Week of September 23
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 23 Sep 2013
The week ahead: Finance Minister Guido Mantega discusses investment opportunities in Brazil with investors in New York.The government is concerned about the attractiveness of the concessions programmed for the coming months. In the US, Dilma speaks at the UN General Assembly.This is a decisive we...

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Interpreting the Monetary Policy Announcement
INDIA - Report 23 Sep 2013
In his maiden monetary policy announcement RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tried to unveil a complicated mix of easing and tightening. He raised the policy “repo” rate to bring down inflationary expectations, while at the same time reducing the MSF rate, the effective rate at which banks borrow, whic...

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Help From the Fed for the Brazilian Central Bank
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 23 Sep 2013
The markets were taken by surprise with the Fed’s decision to maintain the pace of asset purchases. US Treasury rates immediately fell, with the 10-year bond closing last week at 2.73% after having reached 2.99% before the meeting. Internationally, there was an immediate reversal in the behavior ...

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Weekly Tracker: September 22-28
TURKEY - Report 22 Sep 2013
Executive Summary If the Turkish press is to be believed, the Reform Package to be unveiled on the final day of September will contain concrete human rights reforms. The Kurdish actors already denounced the reform efforts. They now want PKK leader Ocalan to be bestowed with the status of official...

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RBI Statement Failed to Reduce Uncertainty
INDIA - Report 20 Sep 2013
Today RBI said they will: reduce the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate by 75 basis points from 10.25 per cent to 9.5 per cent with immediate effect;reduce the minimum daily maintenance of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) from 99 per cent of the requirement to 95 per cent effective from the fortni...