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Rough and tumble politics
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 18 Mar 2015

We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the...


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The Current Account Deficit Shrinks in 2014
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 18 Mar 2015

According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit in the current account narrowed to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2014, from 5.8% in 2013. Likewise, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP shrank by 0.7 of a percentage point bet...


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Datafolha poll
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Mar 2015

Crisis unravels Dilma’s image, and disapproval reaches 62%

Nearly three months after the beginning of Dilma’s second term, disapproval of the president reached 62%, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, published today.Only 13% of voters consider the government “great/good”.Si...


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Recession Through 2016
VENEZUELA - Forecast 17 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns nega...


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MPC Tries Damage Control
TURKEY - Report 17 Mar 2015

As expected, given the wobbly behavior of the lira and the recent deterioration in inflation expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee did the cautious thing today, leaving all interest rates unchanged (see graph). As for the content of the statement, the assessments on the current account d...


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The Labor Market as Reflected by the Monthly Version of the National Household Survey (PNAD)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Mar 2015
In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

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Week of March 16
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 16 Mar 2015

The effects of the weekend demonstrations will continue to be felt this week.In Congress, we highlight another attempt to vote on the 2015 Budget.Committees will be installed to analyze the fiscal austerity provisional measures.In the Senate, Political Reform bills will be discussed.The House ...


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The End of Exuberance
PERU - Report 16 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times.

Dialogue with the opp...


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Weekly Tracker: March 15-21
TURKEY - Report 15 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

In this Econ-only Tracker, we briefly review the latest date releases and preview the upcoming MPC meeting on Tuesday.

We think the MPC will keep rates on hold this week, given the circumstances, even though this solves close to nothing in terms of broader unc...


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Expected rate cut from CBR
RUSSIA ENERGY / FINANCE - In Brief 13 Mar 2015

CBR decided to today to cut its key rate by 100 b.p., from 15% to 14% exactly

A Big Growth Surprise from Net Exports
HUNGARY - Report 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

Detailed GDP figures for Q4 2014 show that the unexpected strength of output (+0.8% qoq sda) was mainly due to a pick-up in net exports. Consumer demand was also relatively strong, while fixed investment was losing momentum, and inventory accumulati...


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Developments in Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Institutions
INDIA - Report 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

There is an important three-pronged move in institution building, which comprises: (a) formal inflation targeting at RBI; (b) unburdening RBI of the conflict of interest of debt management for the government; and (c) giving RBI a bond market through which monetary p...


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The Fiscal Deficit, Stupid
ARGENTINA - Report 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

In this report, we update the concerns presented a year ago in our report “Dangerous Monetary Arithmetic”. We go into detail with regards the monetary implications of a rising fiscal deficit and the sustainability of the Central Bank’s sterilization cost.

T...


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Unemployment and Labor Income in the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Mar 2015
Executive Summary In this work we discuss the reflections of the expected contraction of GDP em 2015 on the unemployment rate and labor income. In the exercise, we assume that GDP will contract by at least 0.5% and at most 1.5%. The projections are based on data from the Monthly Employment ...

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​Power Situation Update
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 13 Mar 2015

In its latest update published today, the Department of Energy listed 240 companies that have signed up for the Interruptible Load Program (ILP) under which participants will voluntarily run their own generator sets instead of drawing power from the ...


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