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The FDI Split
CHINA - Report 02 Mar 2015
Executive Summary Exports fell -3.3% y/y in January in dollar terms, down 11.8 pps from Q4. Export weakening was likely due to yuan appreciation against the dollar. Imports fell -19.9% y/y, down 18.3 pps. After correcting for the effects of the Chinese New Year holiday, import figures should a...

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Minister Takes Fall For Trade Drade
ECUADOR - Report 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

Minister of Industries Francisco Rivadeneira was fired on February 19th, apparently over a dramatic tariff hike on Colombian and Peruvian imports, a move quickly rescinded in the Colombian case, and being reconsidered for Peru. Falling oil prices, combined with doll...


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Declining Confidence Indicates Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Mar 2015
The confidence indexes produced by FGV have a proven track record of pointing to economic trends. And all of them indicate a new round of deceleration. We start with the consumer confidence index (Graph 1), which has been falling since the second half of 2012, and more steeply since the middle...

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The Recession of 2015 and the Lessons of 1999 and 2003
BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 02 Mar 2015
Executive Summary The growth of the Brazilian economy started to decline in 2010, and disappeared totally in 2014, a year of stagnation. Diagnostic errors and unwitting experiments in conducting economic policy explain that performance. To reverse this situation – and preserve the country’s in...

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Week of March 2
BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 02 Mar 2015

Considerable expectations surround the list Prosecutor General Rodrigo Janot will release this week.With the release of the list, the Petrobras scandal will enter a new phase.The House could vote on minimum wage policy. The Senate is expected to focus on political reform.Congress meets to vote...


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Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA - Report 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

This Special Report was originally issued on March 1, 2015 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments.

The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha a...


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Cabinet dismissal under discussion
UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Mar 2015

After new wave of hryvnia decline the Cabinet of Yetsenyuk is under attack. Budget deficit and hryvnia printing for budget needs were named as the key reasons for hryvnia plunging below 30 hryvnia per ...


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Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA - In Brief 01 Mar 2015

The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, with the desire to break with Indian socialism, was expected to unveil a game plan for structural change from here t...


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Honeymoon Cut Short
TURKEY - Report 01 Mar 2015

Executive Summary

Hours before our editing deadline, incarcerated PKK leader Mr. Abdullah Ocalan issued a call to separatist terror organization PKK to convene its Grand Convention to consider a “reinforced ceasefire”. Can it work? We only assign 30% odds to success.

What doe...


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Government Crackdown
VENEZUELA - Report 28 Feb 2015

Executive Summary

Although the launch of the new Marginal Currency System (Simadi) dominated economic headlines in February, it proved to be much ado about nothing.

Despite the economic crisis and approval ratings at a paltry 20 percent, Maduro and his allies have consolidat...


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South African Budget 2015: Two Cheers for the Minister’s Maiden Speech
SOUTH AFRICA - Report 26 Feb 2015

Minister Nhlahla Nene presented his maiden Budget Speech yesterday in the midst of much “expected surprise”. His government faced a complex blend of domestic and international challenges. Personally, also, he had to take a stand, come out of the shadows of the previous two Finance Ministers un...


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Steady Policy
PHILIPPINES - In Brief 26 Feb 2015

As the US Fed struggles with the language of its forward guidance, keeping markets on their toes, the BSP Governor has stated that any interest rate hike on its part need not be "in sync with the Fed" on both timing and size of adjustment. This...


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Heads up: Rumors of Babacan’s resignation
TURKEY - In Brief 25 Feb 2015

CBRT’s 50 basis point cut of the O/N lending rate didn’t please the AKP government. The chorus of objecting voices which began with Premier Davutoglu was soon joined by President Erdogan who accused CBRT to be in collusion with “foreign powers” to h...


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Off the Cliff
UKRAINE - Report 25 Feb 2015

Executive Summary

Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated. Despite widely expected budget cuts, which should have secured a stable hryvnia, the authorities have envisaged an overoptimistic spending plan for 2015, which presumes heavy hryvnia printing. To make matters worse, it sounds as...


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It's all politics, at this stage...
TURKEY - In Brief 24 Feb 2015

Since my name was mentioned in Cosmic's latest post, I might as well do a follow up, though I have little to add to his succinct analysis, especially the two main observations He makes -- that: 1) rate cuts should not have much effect on domestic dem...