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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal data for H1 signify the need to tighten policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018

A few days ago, the MNB reported the general government's net financing requirement for Q2 at 2.2% of GDP, which implies 1.4% of GDP for the whole of H1. These figures are compiled according to ESA-2010, just as the general government balance, the main fiscal policy indicator for EU-members, but ...

Land Trumps SA Political Economy Concerns
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Understandably, the issue of land expropriation without compensation is a big prevailing debate in the country, it has been since December 2017 when the ANC Elective Congress resolved to consider land distribution without expropriation. This then led to a Parliamentary Vote, proposed by the EFF a...

Alckmin’s performance in SP, MG and RJ is cause for concern
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2018

The data presented in Datafolha polling in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three states with the most voters in the country (41.50% of the electorate), are cause for concern for Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). Numerically trailing Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) in São Paulo, the PSDB’s stronges...

The race begins with Lula and Bolsonaro in the lead
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2018

The first Datafolha poll released after the official registration of presidential candidates reveals a scenario that is very similar to the one presented by Ibope earlier this week. In the scenario without Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is in the lead, with Marina Silva (REDE) in second. Ciro Go...

Monetary Council rate-setting meeting: no change, no surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2018

There was no policy change whatsoever coming out of today's monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. Rising central bank interest rates, oil market events, trade war prospects and Turkish events were all mentioned by the communiqué, as factors requiring cautious watch and considerati...

Polls reveal the strength of Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The presidential polls released yesterday (Ibope and CNT/MDA) show that Lula (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) are well positioned in the race. Even if his candidacy is barred by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the former president has enough political capital (support from one third of the e...

From bad to worse
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The plan Maduro unveiled on 17 August 2018 aims at coping with the risks of social outbreak and blind violence sparked by hyperinflation and recession. Yet, it doesn’t address the root of the problems and rather raises the specter of ungovernability. Local industry may get further hurt along the ...

Economics: A legacy of debt and narrow public finance margins
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Analysts have been concerned for some time about the direction of public finance in Mexico, but such considerations have been largely overshadowed by the headline-grabbing 2018 presidential campaign and its results, including the presidential transition process, the uncertainty surrounding Nafta ...

Electoral race Q&A and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2018

The second week of electoral campaigning begins. Several national and state-level polls will be released in the coming days. Presidential candidates will take part in a debate on TV Record. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of requests to contest the validity of candidacies. The Fede...

Gloomy outlook for the public sector finances
PANAMA · In Brief · 20 Aug 2018

The official Ministry of Finance’s (MEF) report on Non-Financial Public Sector performance through June showed dismal numbers. Total revenues grew 0.8 percent in the first six months: Central Government revenues didn’t increase even in nominal terms and only Social Security revenues performed rea...

Politics: AMLO’s first post-election setback
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Despite the initial blowback that greeted Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s vague musings during the campaign about how amnesty and forgiveness would play a role in trying to overcome the violence inflicted by criminal organizations, he proved reluctant to clear up the confusion about just how that p...

China’s policy backpedaling
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Aug 2018

China’s banking regulator Saturday issued a strong notice proposing a heightened stimulus for the economy. This notice from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) was unusual for several reasons: • First, it was more aggressive than previous government statements; • Secon...

The frustrating behavior of the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Employment growth is fundamental to accelerate a cyclical recovery, but unfortunately this is not happening in Brazil. The unemployment rate has only fallen by 0.7 percentage point since the end of the recession, from 13.0% to 12.3%. And more careful analysis of the job market’s behavior reveals ...

Housing rental price moderation is supportive of low inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Aug 2018

July's CPI surprised on the downside due to moderating housing rental prices. With core inflation hovering at around 1.0% y/y in coming months, we do not envision a rate hike before Q119. Zoom In: Underlying GDP growth in Q218 is within the 2.5-3.0% range, a rate likely to be maintained in ...

Political roundup
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2018

Trump met President Putin in Helsinki on 16 July. The meeting was notable for the good chemistry between the two and there appeared to be no disagreements. At the press conference they referred elliptically to a behind-closed-doors agreement on Syria. This could guarantee security for Israel as T...

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